Numbers matter in fantasy football. There’s no denying that. Passing yards are measured in numbers. Receiving TDs are measured in numbers. Rushing yards, receptions, interceptions, rushing TDs – that’s right, all numbers.
The most critical fantasy number is points scored. Score more than your opponent, and you win. Score even a fraction of a point fewer, and you lose.
In fact, numbers don’t just matter in fantasy football. They are everything. Fantasy owners can read the box score of every game every week, but that doesn’t always tell the whole story. Numbers without context are meaningless. Some numbers matter more than others, some are good predictors of future behavior, some are fluky and hard to consistently forecast, and others merely reinforce what our eyes already tell us about a particular player.
Week 2 is in the rear view, and freak outcomes abound. The Buccaneers continue to stay hot, the Steelers can’t win a game, Jacksonville had its revenge on the Patriots, unlikely TEs top the fantasy charts, and receivers like Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, and DeSean Jackson continue to put up ridiculous stats. Here is the latest edition of “By the Numbers” with some interesting stats to reflect on after another exciting week in the NFL.
Get free start/sit and waiver wire advice for your fantasy team 
21.9 – DeSean Jackson’s average targeted air yards
Jackson came into the season with speculation from the fantasy community about his availability and his impact. D-Jax quickly put those speculations to bed. He’s been the centerpiece of Ryan “FitzMagic’s” magnum opus this season, and he unbelievably leads the league in receiving yards through the first two games.
Jackson has been targeted deep as is his specialty, and he’s hauled in all nine of his targets for 275 yards. His 21.9 average air yards per target ranks third in the NFL this year behind only Travis Benjamin and James Washington. He’s already caught two long TDs of 58 and 75 yards this season. Check out the first play from scrimmage from the Bucs/Eagles game this past Sunday:
One play. 75 yards. FitzMagic to DJax.#GoBucs | #PHIvsTB pic.twitter.com/cNLx0Xx0AH
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) September 16, 2018
After only 668 yards and three TDs last season, Jackson (as well as the entire TB offense) is enjoying a renaissance. His enormous production and 100% catch rate are not sustainable, but it’s clear that something special is going on in Tampa Bay. Fitzpatrick is targeting D-Jax deep down the field, and even with a more modest catch percentage, he’ll continue to pull in deep balls and score TDs. His three scores this year have already equaled his 2017 total.
Jackson is not playing behind Chris Godwin as some offseason reports indicated, and he hasn’t lost a step in his 11th season. He’s still one of the NFL’s premier home-run hitters. Continue to fire him up as a WR2 on a loaded offense without much semblance of a running game.
3.6 – Alvin Kamara’s YPC
Kamara was 2017’s Rookie of the Year and the MVP on many fantasy teams. He was a consensus first-round pick in fantasy drafts this year, and it was believed his usage would increase from Weeks 1-4 with Mark Ingram serving a suspension for violating the league’s PED policy. Kamara’s yards per carry (YPC) last year was an astounding 6.1, and that number has unsurprisingly regressed in 2018. This year, Kamara has only 21 carries for 75 yards, averaging 3.6 YPC.
He is still a top-five RB1 because of his usage in the passing game. He’s caught 15 balls for 165 yards, and only Michael Thomas has more targets and receptions for the Saints this year. Kamara is being used less in the running game and is less efficient than he was last year, but his talent and usage make him a locked-in RB1 every week.
Kamara’s usage means that Mark Ingram’s job as the early-down back is secure when he returns from suspension. Ingram was an RB1 last season, and he didn’t turn it on until Adrian Peterson was traded in Week 3. He will be utilized enough to be the thunder to Kamara’s lightning once again. Ingram is a top-15 play once he returns, and it’s clear that Kamara will remain the pass-catching back on this team. Kamara is a weekly top-three play in PPR leagues and a top-five play in standard leagues.
213 – Phillip Lindsay’s scrimmage yards
Who? Lindsay, a UDFA, has quickly climbed the depth chart in Denver and is one of fantasy’s most surprising players in 2018. He and Royce Freeman have essentially split RB duties for the first two weeks of the season, and Devontae Booker has become an afterthought in this offense. In fact. Linday’s usage went up significantly in Week 2.
In Week 1, Freeman played 29 snaps (39%) to Lindsay’s 26 (35%). In Week 2, Lindsay played 28 snaps (42%) to Freeman’s 16 (24%). He’s trending up right now. Lindsay is currently third in the NFL in rushing yards, with 178, and 11th in scrimmage yards among RBs. He showed his abilities as a receiver out of the backfield on his first NFL TD in Week 1.
Looks like the 30 jersey has a little #MileHighMagic left in it.#BeatTheSeahawks pic.twitter.com/v9fzsK9ByC
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 9, 2018
His NFL career is off to an unbelievable start. Currently, Lindsay ranks 13th in fantasy points among RBs in PPR leagues, while Royce Freeman is 34th. Lindsay is an RB1 in standard leagues and ranks 11th, while Freeman again trails and ranks 29th. He went completely under the radar in drafts this year, and he was a hot waiver wire pickup after his Week 1 performance.
After two weeks of solid production and snaps, it’s obvious that Lindsay is the preferred backfield mate for Royce Freeman. This is shaping into an RBBC with Lindsay as the most viable fantasy option right now. He’ll be an RB2/flexFLEX until further notice.
26.7 – Will Dissly’s total fantasy points
Dissly played a little DE and TE at Washington, and he’s a huge presence on the field. Through two games, he’s grabbed six balls for 147 yards and two TDs. He’s currently listed over preseason sleeper TE Nick Vannett on the team’s depth chart.
Dissly is ranked third among TEs in PPR scoring, and the top five in both PPR and standard formats includes Raiders TE Jared Cook and Steelers TE Jesse James. The top 12 in both formats also features O.J. Howard and Austin Hooper. Dissly’s production has seemingly come out of nowhere. He and the other TEs mentioned above highlight the volatility of the position. It’s still too early to treat Dissly as a TE1, and his playing time and receptions could come back down to earth when Doug Baldwin returns.
For now, he’s worth stashing on the bench and using situationally. Cook and James can be treated similarly, although Cook has the most upside of the three. All can be used as streamers if you need them.
15.5 – Fantasy PPG for the Bears D/ST
Through the first two games of 2018, Chicago is the number one D/ST in fantasy football, with 31.0 points. That’s an excellent start, considering the “Sacksonville” Jaguars D/ST had only 27.0 total points through the first two games of 2017 en route to an overall D/ST1 finish. The Bears lead the NFL in sacks with 10.0 thanks in large part to the superhuman efforts of DE Khalil Mack. This D/ST also has two each of fumble recoveries and interceptions.
Chicago’s defense finished top 10 in fantasy last year, and they returned most of the roster. I highlighted the Bears D/ST in the preseason before they added Mack, and his addition to this team took the defense from formidable to dangerous.
Can't stop, won't stop!
The Monsters of da Midway are BACK. pic.twitter.com/CnXbNUObvc
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 19, 2018
Over the next 11 weeks, Chicago faces the Cardinals, Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Lions twice, and Giants. With good matchups on the horizon, this unit is in for some high-scoring fantasy weeks. The defense should keep Chicago in a lot of games, and competent play from Mitchell Trubisky could make this a playoff team. The Bears D/ST is virtually matchup proof and should be started every week without question.
Thanks for reading, and good luck in your fantasy matchups this week!
Find and analyze trades for your team with My Playbook
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS
Zachary Hanshew is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.
