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Contest Advice

If you’re going to finish in the top five, you’ll need a massive score. Below, I’ve highlighted five players from one of this weekend’s games that has serious shootout potential. They’re joined by a one-off play at tight end who’s in line for a juicy matchup.

Matt Ryan (QB – ATL): $6,100 vs. Bengals
Julio Jones (WR – ATL): $8,200 vs. Bengals
Tevin Coleman (RB – ATL): $5,900 vs. Bengals

The Falcons are five-point favorites at home and they have a team over/under total of 27.5 points. Ryan is coming off of a huge effort against the leaky Saints defense in which he passed for 374 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions. That follows a strong effort at home against the Panthers where he passed for 272 yards, two scores, and one interception while adding an uncharacteristic two rushing touchdowns. He’s spun it in Atlanta’s two home games, and their banged up defense has forced the offense to hang points in order to keep things close (they won in Week 2 and lost in overtime last week). Ryan has played better at home than on the road in his career, so that’s another check in the pros column for using him, too.

Rookie wideout Calvin Ridley stole the show last week with a 7-146-3 line on eight targets along with a nine-yard run. It was his second good game — in this case, a great game — after being blanked in the opener. He’ll get a recency bias bump in ownership, and his significant salary discount from Julio Jones at only $4,900 will further inflate his ownership number. Jones was once again kept out of the end zone, but he was extremely efficient reeling in five of six targets for 96 yards. The veteran wide receiver is a yardage monster, and even if he’s likely to end the year with another disappointing touchdown number overall due to struggles in the red zone and ample attention in that area of the field, he has long touchdown potential.

In his Week 2 start, Coleman totaled 125 yards from scrimmage with four catches, but he failed to score a touchdown. Last week, he scored a touchdown, but he totaled just 47 yards from scrimmage. The Bengals have allowed only two touchdowns (one rushing and one receiving) to running backs this season, per Pro-Football-Reference, but they’re getting gashed for 4.55 yards per carry. Cincinnati’s run defense is missing key cog Vontaze Burfict. The talented linebacker is serving a four-game suspension. After facing the underwhelming backfield of the Colts in the opener and racing out to a lead that resulted in a positive game script against the Ravens, they weren’t really challenged. Last week, however, Christian McCaffrey clowned them for 184 yards on 28 carries. With Atlanta favored, game script should work in Coleman’s favor in this tasty matchup. I like the odds of Coleman reaching triple-digit yardage from scrimmage with a few receptions. That’d do, and if he reaches pay dirt as well, he’ll smash value.

Giovani Bernard (RB – CIN): $6,300 @ Falcons
A.J. Green (WR – CIN): $7,500 @ Falcons

Bernard was the only running back to carry the ball for the Bengals last week. He only carried it 12 times, but he made the most of those carries toting the rock for 61 yards and a score. Bernard also made his presence felt in the passing attacking garnering nine targets (most on the team). He wasn’t particularly efficient catching five balls for 25 yards, but his receiving work brought his yards from scrimmage total to a healthy 86. In all, he scored 19.6 DraftKings points. Bernard’s receiving skills will be especially useful this week. Atlanta has yielded the most receptions (36) to running backs this year, and that’s a familiar rank since they’ve allowed the most receptions to backs each of the last three years (2015-2017). Whether the game stays close or the Bengals are forced to play catch up, Bernard should be a busy pass catcher this weekend.

Green sat the second half of last week’s game dealing with an injury. Green’s painting a positive picture for his availability this weekend, but his practice work the rest of the week should shed light on his likelihood of playing. With that said, his playing status will need to be monitored. Even though he exited last week early, he’s caught five passes or more and bested 55 yards receiving in all three games, and he caught four touchdowns (one in Week 1 and three in Week 2) through the first two games of the season. The 30-year-old wideout has huge home/road splits that favor playing on the road. In 52 home games in his career, he’s averaged 4.8 receptions and 70.2 yards per game with 28 touchdowns. In 53 road games in his career, those averages swell to 6.1 receptions and 90.2 yards per game with 33 touchdowns. Thus far this season, Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Falcons 25th in pass defense and 23rd defending No. 1 receivers. This is an excellent matchup for Green.

Trey Burton (TE – CHI): $3,900 vs. Buccaneers
Speaking of excellent matchups. FO ranks the Buccaneers 25th defending tight ends. Tampa Bay has yielded the most DraftKings points per game (22.3) to the position, and that’s despite allowing only one touchdown grab. They’ve coughed up 25 receptions for 329 yards on 31 targets this season. Burton has been solid if unspectacular in his first season with the Bears. After securing just one of his six targets for 15 yards in the first game of the season, he caught all four of his targets in the second game for only 20 yards, but reached double-digit fantasy points thanks to a touchdown. Last week, he failed to reach pay dirt, but he corralled four of five targets for 55 yards. Burton’s full-season totals are far from standout, but he is an important part of Chicago’s passing attack and ranks third on the team in targets (15), fourth in receptions (nine), second in receiving yards (90), and tied for the team lead with one touchdown grab. Also, he’s been on the field for 86% of Chicago’s offensive snaps, putting him way ahead of Dion Sims (40%).

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is JoshShep50) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.