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DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Tuesday (9/4)

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Tuesday (9/4)

Many fantasy writers have gotten on their soapbox over the past couple of weeks and discussed how uber important it is to keep up-to-date on baseball despite the monstrosity that is fantasy football. Well, not only is that true, but now we have expanded September rosters to contend with. Due to teams out of the race wanting to play youngsters over their veterans, it can be extremely difficult to know who is going to play on a given night. Similarly, the Triple-A shuttle of relievers is now in the majors full-time, and with closer situations more convoluted than ever, even on contending teams (Yankees, Cardinals, Cubs, Astros, Indians, etc.), it is nearly impossible to come up with an accurate game script.

Despite all of these variables, the best strategy is to continue to find those matchups in which hitters have historically done well against a certain pitcher, thus being much less likely to hit the bench, as well as getting shares of lineups against poor pitchers. I do not have empirical data to back this up, but it is better to stack against a pitcher who has been bad all year, rather than picking on a middle-of-the-road prospect just brought up for a start. There simply is not as much good data on these prospects, and hitters can have trouble adjusting to these guys just for one game.

Coors is in play. Playoff baseball is around the corner. Make the most of your DFS baseball time while you still can.

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Pitcher

Lucas Giolito (CHW): $6,300 vs. DET
There are not a lot of studs on the mound; Justin Verlander being the only exception, and even he has looked human in the second half. Meanwhile, Giolito has looked like a new human on the mound lately, posting a string of four straight quality starts, and five in the past six. The highlight of the bunch is his most recent start, pitching over six innings against the best offense in baseball in the Red Sox, striking out eight. He limited them to just a run, and was unlucky to garner the win. Overall, the past month yields a 4.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 34 Ks in just over 30 innings. Given his clear turnaround and the Tigers lack of power (29th in all of baseball) and runs scored (27th), this is the perfect storm for Giolito. If you need more convincing, check out Bobby Sylvester’s and Paul Sporer’s most recent FantasyPros podcast.

Alex Cobb (BAL): $5,900 @ SEA
Cobb also has gotten his second half going, especially since July 13. Since then, he has posted seven quality starts out of nine starts, which does not include a five-inning stint in which he allowed just a run. The highlight was a complete game against the Indians on August 18th. He laid an egg in his last start against the Blue Jays, but that just means he will likely be underowned for this next turn against the Mariners. According to Fangraphs, he pitches better on the road than at home (not surprising), and he is facing the sliding Mariners, who rank in the bottom half of both runs and home runs. It would be wise to pair a guy like Mike Clevinger with one of the two pitchers listed here.

Other Notables

German Marquez (COL): $9,300 vs. SF – pitching at an unbelievable rate, even at home, and Giants are now rebuilding
Jake Arrieta (PHI): $7,400 @ MIA – hit-or-miss lately, but facing the Marlins in a pitcher’s park
Danny Duffy (KC): $6,700 @ CLE – sure, Cleveland is great, but remember that Cobb shut them down three weeks ago

Catcher

Brian McCann (HOU): $3,300 vs. MIN
McCann just came off of the DL, but the Astros make for a great stack against youngster Kohl Stewart. Stewart’s ERA sits at 6.61 through 16 innings, so it’s a small sample, but it seems that the Astros could feast off of him. McCann has played in back-to-back games, so he may sit on Tuesday. Martin Maldonado or Max Stassi (both $3,200) would fill in for McCann, so check back before game time to see if he is in the Astros’ lineup if you want him in yours.

Other Notables

Yan Gomes (CLE): $4,000 vs. KC – higher price, but rakes against Duffy (10-for-26, three homers)
Wellington Castillo (CWS): $3,900 vs. DET – back from suspension, hits probable starter Francisco Liriano well (7-for-22, two homers)

First Base

Joe Mauer (MIN): $3,300 @ HOU
Talk about a contrarian pick, at least on the surface. However, when you peak into his recent numbers, along with his career numbers against Verlander, it paints a pretty picture. Over the last month, he is hitting .290 with two homers. More importantly, he hits Verlander to the tune of .313 over 64 at-bats with three homers. Justin Verlander‘s homer rate is substantially up in the second half (2.28 vs. .95 for his entire career). While this means he is likely going to regress to the mean, it also means that Verlander is potentially vulnerable to the homer right now. Even if Mauer does not homer (he probably won’t), he has some capable hitters behind him (Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano). It could be worth the risk in GPP.

Other Notables

Brandon Belt (SF): $4,200 @ COL – listed as DTD, so will be under-owned; you get a Coors share and is batting 4-for-4 against Marquez
David Freese (LAD): $3,500 vs. NYM – may not start, but going against gas can Jason Vargas, and Freese kills lefties. Also qualifies at 3B.
Ryan Zimmerman (WAS): $4,000 vs. STL – probable starter Miles Mikolas has struggled, and Zim is hot (.326, two homers over past two weeks)

Second Base

Brandon Lowe (TBR): $3,200 @ TOR
The rookie Lowe has been a monster recently, hitting .400 with three homers and two stolen bases over the past two weeks. He’s a lefty going against righty Sam Gaviglio, and he hits righties (.280) much better than lefties (.143). Lowe will continue to see playing time while some Rays middle infielders are rehabbing, so Lowe can be a key piece to a Rays’ contrarian stack on Tuesday.

Other Notables

Dee Gordon (SEA): $3,900 vs. BAL – hitting better lately, and if Cobb does stink it up, Gordon will likely have a part in it

Third Base

Matt Duffy (TBR): $3,800 @ TOR
Duffy has been on an absolute tear in his past two weeks, hitting .356 with eight RBI, seven runs, and two stolen bags. He also makes for another great contrarian stick with Brandon Lowe (see above) and Willy Adames (see below). Given the lack of options in the $3K level, it may make sense to go for broke with a true superstar (think Alex Bregman, Nolan Arenado in Coors, Justin Turner).

Other Notables

Ryan Flaherty (ATL): $2,700 vs. BOS – probable pitcher Rick Porcello has been mediocre lately, and he is also 6-for-16 lifetime against him

Shortstop

Marcus Semien (OAK): $4,000 vs. NYY
Semien has been a catalyst in the A’s order lately (hitting .286, four homers, three SBs) in the past month, and he hits probable starter J.A. Happ extremely well (8-for-16, two homers). Semien hit leadoff on Monday, and with his track record against Happ, he should continue to hit atop the order behind fantastic hitters Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, and a hot Stephen Piscotty.

Other Notables

Elvis Andrus (TEX): $3,700 vs. LAA – hitter’s park, crushes Heaney (6-for-13), hitting third in the lineup
Willy Adames (TB): $3,800 @ TOR – .322 with four homers, five stolen bases over the past month

Outfield

Nick Markakis (ATL): $4,100 vs. BOS
Brandon Guyer (CLE): $3,100 vs. KC
Harrison Bader (STL): $3,800 @ WAS

Markakis continues to defy logic by having his best season at age 34. Hist K rate is down more than 4.5 %, and his wOBA is up 30 points, to .352, year-over-year. He also swats Porcello (11-for-29, good for a .379/.441/.517 triple-slash), so he makes for a great play against a struggling pitcher.

Brandon Guyer absolutely mashes lefties, and Duffy is a prime example; he is 7-for-15, which is translating to a .467/.556/.800 triple-slash line. Jason Kipnis is likely to still man second base until Josh Donaldson comes back, so Guyer is likely to play on Tuesday.

Finally, Bader has been a revelation for the Cardinals as they make their late-season charge to the wildcard spot with his bat, glove, and speed. He is also going up against Erick Fedde, who has a 5.79 ERA over 28 innings, and his HR/FB rate is an astounding 25%. This is not sustainable, but you need to get shares of a few Cardinals against this poor pitcher.

Other Notables

Andrew McCutchen (NYY): $4,100 @ OAK – now in a pennant race, batted ball profile is one of best to date per Fangraphs
Matt Holliday (COL): $3,900 vs. SF – Coors share, plain and simple. If he doesn’t start, Gerardo Parra ($3,800) will
Billy McKinney (TOR): $3,700 vs. TB – on absolute fire lately (.361, three homers over past two weeks), hitting in hitter’s park

Be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference down the stretch, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Happy pennant race!

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Carmen Maiorano is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.

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