DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 2
A three-man stack is the backbone of this week’s DraftKings GPP lineup, but they’re supplemented by some heavy hitters who include the game’s best receiver and a stud back. I break one of the rules of thumb with a game stack featuring running backs from each of the opposing squads, though, when you see the backs it will become clear why the rule was broken.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): $6,000 vs. Lions
Dante Pettis (WR – SF): $4,000 vs. Lions
George Kittle (TE – SF): $3,800 vs. Lions
In Matt Patricia’s last game as a defensive coordinator, Nick Foles completed 28 of 43 passes for 373 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception en route to winning the Super Bowl MVP. In his first game as the head coach of the Lions, his defense returned Sam Darnold’s first pass in an NFL regular season game for a pick six. After that, however, Darnold was rarely frazzled and completed 15 of his next 20 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Garoppolo’s more seasoned than a rookie making his first NFL start, and the Lions are on the road in San Francisco for this contest. Jimmy G had a rough go of it in his first game this season completing only 15 of 33 passes for 261 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, but that game was in Minnesota against a Vikings defense that’s significantly better than Detroit’s.
In six starts with the 49ers, Garoppolo has completed 63.4% of his passes, averaged 300.5 yards passing, and tossed seven touchdowns along with seven interceptions. He shined last year but struggled in a tough matchup in Week 1. I’m willing to give him a pass. He’s priced outside the top-10 quarterbacks, and he’s leading the six-point favorite 49ers in a game with an over/under total of 48 points, per Pinnacle, leaving the 49ers with an implied team over/under total of 27 points. Sign me up for exposure to that.
As you’ve deduced from the inclusion of a pair of his teammates above, I’m buying into them as well. Marquise Goodwin suffered a deep thigh bruise that forced him out of last week’s contest for a bit. He did return, but he ultimately exited again. His availability for this weekend will require monitoring (he didn’t practice Thursday and is considered day to day still), but the injury helped push Pettis into second in snaps played among wide receivers for the 49ers last week. He played nearly three-quarters of the team’s offensive snaps, and he hauled in the team’s only touchdown on a 22-yard pass. The rookie was targeted five times and turned them into a 2-61-1 line. The 49ers spent the 44th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft to secure Pettis’ services. While he never eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving in a season in his four years at Washington, Pettis hauled in 116 passes for 1,583 yards and a whopping 22 touchdowns his last two years — 26 games — in college combined, per Sports-Reference.
He didn’t take long to show off his nose for the end zone in his NFL career. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Pettis was in route on 57.6% of the 49ers’ pass plays and was in the slot at a 44.4% clip. The usage makes sense given Lance Zierlein’s scouting report that you can check out here. Pettis makes for a cheap stack partner with his signal caller.
Even cheaper, though, is tight end, George Kittle. Kittle was excellent in the season opener, and there’s a good chance he’s the chalkiest option at tight end this week. He’s led the 49ers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in his last two games (the last game of last year’s regular season and the opener last week). The second-year tight end is riding a four-game streak of besting 50 yards receiving or finding pay dirt. Using this trio as a stack taps into San Francisco’s appealing over/under total while also freeing up tons of salary for studs elsewhere.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): $9,500 vs. Browns
Duke Johnson Jr. (RB – CLE): $4,200 @ Saints
Usually, it’s ill-advised to use running backs from opposing teams on the same roster. However, there are always exceptions to rules. This is an exception. Kamara’s a do-it-all explosive back who is completely game-script proof. Last season he averaged 45.5 yards rushing per game at an NFL-high 6.1 yards per carry, yet he was even more dangerous as a receiver, hauling in 5.1 receptions per game for 51.6 yards per game. In Week 1, he showcased his receiving chops with a 9-112-1 line on 12 targets while also scoring two touchdowns with 29 yards on eight carries.
He’ll now take aim at a defense that allowed an NFL-high 135 yards rushing to James Conner. Pittsburgh’s second-year back added a pair of rushing scores, and he hauled in five of six targets for 57 yards. This is no knock on Conner, but Kamara’s a far more explosive and dangerous back, and his ceiling is limitless this week.
Johnson isn’t a game-script proof back, and he’ll need Cleveland to play catch up or Todd Haley to specifically game plan his receiving skills into the mix right out of the chute to deliver the goods for gamers. The tie against Pittsburgh last week was close throughout the entire game, and as a result, two-down thumper Carlos Hyde led the backfield in offensive snaps (47, good for 53% of the team’s offensive snaps). Hyde was force fed the ball 22 times on the ground and targeted twice in the passing game. He scored a touchdown but averaged a paltry 2.82 yards per carry while reeling in one of his two targets for only three yards. It wasn’t an exciting outing.
Johnson lagged way behind in touches in Week 1 with five carries for 17 yards and just one reception for eight yards. He was, however, targeted six times, and he was only six offensive snaps short of Hyde’s total. The Browns are the second-biggest underdogs of the week, getting 10 points in New Orleans, and if the game goes according to plan, it should result in a pass-heavy comeback attempt that favors Johnson’s skill-set.
Antonio Brown (WR – PIT): $8,800 vs. Chiefs
Even with the bad road version of Ben Roethlisberger showing up in Week 1, Brown corralled nine of 16 targets for 93 yards and a touchdown. This week, the Steelers are at home, and Big Ben’s been considerably better in home starts than on the road. That offers Brown a lift this week, and a dreamy matchup amplifies that lift. The Chiefs yielded 16 receptions, 198 yards, and two touchdowns to the Chargers receivers in their opener, per Pro-Football-Reference. Their cornerbacks are no match for Brown.
Furthermore, per RotoViz, in 17 games without Le’Veon Bell since his rookie season in 2013, Brown’s posted eye-popping per-game averages of 13.12 targets, 9.12 receptions, 127.82 yards, and 0.82 touchdowns. Simply put, I’d be shocked if Brown isn’t on the big GPP winning lineups this week.