With two weeks in the books of the NFL season, we are starting to see some players emerge far beyond our preseason expectations. While we need to be careful not to put these players on a pedestal quite yet, their performances do have to be taken seriously and sometimes even overreacted to in a sport like the NFL when we have such a small sample size to work with.
Week 3 seems to hit on the extremes with four games featuring a Vegas total over 50 points and six games with a Vegas total of 42 points or fewer. This does help narrow the player pool since (hint) you’ll want to get your exposure to the high Vegas total matchups and avoid the low ones.
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Thursday Option
Terrelle Pryor (NYJ – WR): $3,800 @ CLE
The Thursday night matchup is one of those low Vegas totals (39) so if you are playing the full-week slate, it is probably a game to just avoid and hope others make the mistake of rostering players just so they can get in some action. If you are going to roster someone then I would suggest going with a cheap boom-or-bust option like Terrelle Pryor. He costs just $3,800 and will be returning to Cleveland where he had his most productive season in 2016. After a lost year last season in Washington, Pryor has resurfaced with the Jets and has tallied a solid 133 yards through the first two games while garnering eight targets in Week 2. He does have big-play ability and it would take just one long score to easily pay off his low salary.
Early Cash Game Core
Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB – QB): $6,000 vs. PIT
The two biggest stories of the first two weeks have to be Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick. While Mahomes has seen his salary jump up to $7,000 (more than Tom Brady), Fitzpatrick has only taken small steps upward to the $6,000 mark for Week 3. Fitzpatrick plays on Monday night against the Steelers, who just allowed Mahomes to throw for six scores. The Steelers offense is good enough to force the Bucs to keep putting up points so another 400-yard, four-TD performance from Fitzpatrick is a possibility as he stakes his claim to the starting job even after Jameis Winston returns.
Alvin Kamara (NO – RB): $9,500 @ ATL
Alvin Kamara has a very high floor due to his pass-catching ability, his overall efficiency, and his red zone usage. He put up 17.9 DraftKings points in Week 2 on an “off-week” for the electric RB. This week he faces a Falcons defense that just gave up 14 receptions for 102 yards to Christian McCaffrey in Week 2. They will also continue to be without two of their key defensive players and had allowed the most receptions by RBs last season as they funnel looks to the middle of the field. I shudder to think what Kamara can do with 14 receptions, but we might find out this week.
Julio Jones (ATL – WR): $7,900 vs. NO
Julio Jones has averaged 14 targets, 7.5 receptions and 116.5 yards per game through the first two weeks of the season. He averaged six receptions for 123.5 yards in two meetings against the Saints last season. The Saints defense hasn’t been nearly as good so far this season as last year, as they are ranked 31st against the pass according to FootballOutsiders DVOA rankings while giving up 331.5 yards and 2.5 TD passes per game through the first two weeks. The receptions and yardage expectation gives Jones a solid floor and if he can actually find the end zone he has great upside as well.
George Kittle (SF – TE): $4,500 @ KC
I know, I know, you played the chalk George Kittle last week and he let you down. Join the club. However, that is one of the reasons to go right back to him as other’s recency bias will not allow them to click him into their lineup this week. However, he is in another great spot playing in the game with the highest Vegas total on the slate against the Chiefs. The Chiefs allowed Jesse James (yes, Jesse James) to run all over them for five receptions and 138 yards and a score last week. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Kittle repeats those numbers this week, and if he does you’ll regret not ignoring the egg he laid last week.
Players to Watch
Corey Clement (PHI – RB): $4,300 vs. IND
While the Eagles will be welcoming Carson Wentz back in Week 3 against the Colts, their running back situation is quite cloudy right now with both Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles battling injuries. Early reports are that Ajayi might miss this week’s game which will open the door for Corey Clement to be the lead back and he may be the only back if Sproles is also ruled out. That is a lot of potential touches for an offense that will get better in general with the return of Wentz. Clement is a viable option if one fellow RB is out and a lock play if both miss the game against the Colts on Sunday.
Chris Ivory (BUF – RB): $4,000 @ MIN
There are reports that starting RB LeSean McCoy might sit out the Bills Week 3 game against the Vikings due to broken ribs. If he misses the game, that would open the door for Chris Ivory to see increased touches at a cheap salary. Ivory is not a slam dunk play, however, simply because of a very difficult matchup in Minnesota against a stout Vikings run defense in a game that the Bills are over two-touchdown underdogs. Ivory’s salary makes him worth consideration if McCoy is ruled out, but he still shouldn’t be considered a safe play.
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Brad Richter is a Featured Writer and correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
