Boy does it feel good to finally set our sights on Week 1 of the NFL Season. The long weeks of training camp and preseason have finally come to a close, and we’re about to start acquiring some telling information, rather than just guessing and hoping. Every Thursday, I’ll be providing you guys with my DraftKings Value Plays of the week, giving you some hints toward a handful of players I feel will outperform their prices. These are the players that are perfect for sticking in your lineup when you want to spend up at another position. Want to start both Gurley and Zeke this week? I’ve got some wide receivers that will allow you to do so. Thinking about playing both an elite quarterback and tight end? Use this article to save money at running back.
The fact that this week is the first of the season makes it especially difficult to predict, considering we have no actual information from the season to go off of. Our best bet is to use a combination of preseason usage, matchup analysis, and previous season results to come up with some solid options. My belief is that you should never be putting a player in your lineup that you don’t feel good about. If all the players in your lineup have a good matchup, or have multiple arrows in their outlook pointing up, it gives you that much better of a chance to do well. Let’s get into some of the options on the Week 1 slate.
All strength of schedule data is from the FantasyPros Matchup Calendar.
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Quarterback
Dak Prescott (DAL – QB): $5,500 at CAR
I think the impact Ezekiel Elliott has on Dak Prescott in fantasy is severely overlooked. Prescott’s disappointing finish to his season last year has left a lot of people with a sour taste in their mouths, but they seem to be forgetting what happened in the first half of the season. Although Prescott finished with three single-digit outputs in his last seven games, including a negative outing against Philadelphia, the young signal-caller was averaging 21.5 FPPG in the eight games he played with Elliott before his suspension. That’s easy QB1 territory, and many experts at that time had Prescott ranked as a top-five fantasy quarterback rest-of-season. Many will point to his injury-riddled offensive line as a reason to stay away from Prescott, but he’s a very mobile quarterback who may even be forced into more rushing yards this week as a result. The matchup with Carolina isn’t the best you could ask for, but it’s nothing I’m shying away from, as Prescott has been virtually matchup-proof when Zeke has been on the field alongside him.
Other options: Andy Dalton ($5,800), Tyrod Taylor ($5,400)
Running Backs
James White (NE – RB): $4,000 vs. HOU
Most people are aware that Julian Edelman is suspended for the first four weeks of the season, but those same people will immediately look to the wide receivers on the depth chart to soak up those leftover targets. Who they’ll see is Chris Hogan, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Phillip Dorsett, not exactly a group that inspires much confidence other than Hogan. Instead, look to White, who is virtually a wide receiver that starts in the backfield. White had five or more catches on five different occasions during his first eight weeks of the season last year. He averaged 12.2 PPR FPPG during this span and only scored one touchdown during it, meaning almost all of his production was volume and yardage based. Starting in Week 10, the Patriots decided to make Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis the focal points of the running back group, and White’s production tapered off in the second half of the season. Burkhead will play Week 1 but has reportedly been dealing with a bit of a knee issue that he says he’ll have to play through during the season. Dion Lewis is now gone from the offense. Sony Michel has been limited in practice so far this week, so I’d expect White to be very busy in the passing game in Week 1, especially given that the over/under with the Texans was set at 50.5. There will be lots of passing situations, and maybe even some catching up to do in what is expected to be a high-scoring game.
Ty Montgomery (GB – RB): $3,700 vs. CHI
The pass-catching options in Green Bay right now start at Davante Adams and then fall off a cliff. Jimmy Graham is 31 years old, learning a new offense, and coming off his lowest yardage total since 2010. Randall Cobb had off-season ankle surgery and has been the subject of multiple trade rumors over the past month. Geronimo Allison is a trendy pick to break out this season but is still unproven, along with all the other young receivers on the roster. This leaves Montgomery, a converted wide receiver who can line up in the slot or in the backfield beside Aaron Rodgers. The Bears are the sixth toughest foe for opposing running backs, meaning it might be tough for Jamaal Williams to find much room on first and second down. It’s very likely that the Packers do the majority of their damage on passing downs and third downs on Sunday night, situations in which Montgomery will play most of his snaps. Don’t play Montgomery if you’re looking for huge upside, but he has a relatively safe PPR floor this week.
Other options: James Conner ($4,500), Jordan Wilkins ($3,700)
Wide Receivers
Kenny Stills (MIA – WR): $4,700 vs. TEN
I was already a fan of Stills this week, but with the news dropping recently that DeVante Parker is officially out for Week 1 (broken finger), I would almost consider Stills to be a lock at this price. Tennessee is the 10th easiest defense for opposing wide receivers, and other than Stills, there really aren’t any established red zone options for Ryan Tannehill in the passing game. I’ve heard some people attribute Stills’ success in the past few years to his rapport with Matt Moore, but Stills had six touchdowns in 2016 prior to Tannehill’s knee injury. Stills had a 6-97-1 line the last time that these two were together in a regular season game, and that was with Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker both on the field. His competition for targets this week includes Albert Wilson, Danny Amendola, and Mike Gesicki, all of which were either on another NFL team or in college last year. Stills is the only pass-catcher on the Dolphins this week that has legitimate chemistry with Tannehill. The combination of a projected high target volume and solid touchdown upside makes Stills a great high-floor, high-ceiling option this week for less than $5,000.
John Ross (CIN – WR): $3,900 at IND
I legitimately think you could start anyone on the Bengals offense this week and probably end up happy come Sunday afternoon. Ross happens to be the best value, so I chose to target him, as his potential upside is way too high for a sub-$4,000 price. Quick quiz: can you name more than one defensive back on the Indianapolis roster right now? If you were able to, you looked it up and you cheated. Nate Hairston, Pierre Desir, and Quincy Wilson? All that should tell you is that no one on the Colts roster is capable of covering John Ross (4.22 40-yard dash), who has jaw-dropping quickness and agility. I will admit that Ross likely has the lowest floor of anyone in the article this week, as his play-style is fairly boom-or-bust, but if you’re paying such a cheap price you’d rather play someone who can score from anywhere on the field. Terrance Williams, Mohamed Sanu, and Ryan Grant are some of the guys in the same price range as Ross, but they have far less upside. Operating as the No. 2 wide-out opposite A.J. Green, I think this is a huge opportunity for Ross to start 2018 off with a bang, considering the Colts are the seventh most forgiving defense to opposing receivers.
Other options: Anthony Miller ($4,600), Keelan Cole ($3,800)
Tight End
Ben Watson (NO – TE): $3,100 vs. TB
I was tempted to go with Jack Doyle here ($3,600) but I figured he would be a pretty popular pick this week, so I decided to go with someone who should have lower ownership levels. Watson is consistently undervalued among tight ends, which explains why I was so shocked to discover that he was the 11th ranked tight end last year in PPR leagues. Nothing about this matchup screams must-target for the tight end position, but it’s more of the situation that draws me to Watson this year. Outside of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, there aren’t many other options in the passing game. Ted Ginn was solid last year but is 33 years old this season, and the fact that New Orleans went out to sign Cameron Meredith and drafted Tre’Quan Smith means they’re aware that Ginns’ best years are behind him. However, Meredith did not live up to expectations in the preseason, and neither him nor Smith have an established connection with Drew Brees. At least for the first few weeks, I see Brees leaning on the familiar target of Watson, who put up a 74-825-6 stat line when these two played together in 2015. Additionally, with Mark Ingram suspended the first four games of 2018, it would be wise for the Saints to lean on the passing game until Week 5 so as not to overwork Kamara on the ground. Watson is a solid, inexpensive option in Week 1.
Other options: Jack Doyle ($3,600), Vance McDonald ($3,200)
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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.
