It’s Week 3 of the fantasy football season, and that means it’s the last week before bye weeks hit us. Time to take advantage of one last slate full of players from every team, and capitalize on the biggest bargains. We’re starting to get to the point of the season in which we have important information to use. Which player does a coach favor? Who’s seeing more playing time than others? Which matchups are ones to target, versus ones to avoid? All of these questions are starting to be answered, but we still have a lot to learn. For now, let’s use what we have to make our best predictions for Week 3.
Last week’s results (Point values are for full-point PPR):
QB: Mitch Trubisky – 14.4 FP
RB: Javorius Allen – 15.4 FP
RB: Royce Freeman – 8.8 FP
WR: Brandon Marshall – 8.4 FP
WR: Cole Beasley – 3.3 FP
TE: Jared Cook – 8.9 FP
A decent but unspectacular showing in Week 2. A respectable floor was there for the most part, but upside is what we’re looking for to really bring in the big bucks. Week 3 is a good chance to find some of that.
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Quarterback
Alex Smith (WAS): $5,800 vs. GB
I would have a hard time not using Alex Smith in all of my lineups this week. He should be in line for a good outing given the matchup and the expected game script. Now, this could change if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t suit up, but it seems like there’s more certainty he will play this week than there was last week. Any game against Rodgers has a chance to be a shootout, and this one is no different. Although I do think Green Bay made some good moves to improve their secondary in the draft, it’s still an area of inexperience. This was fully on display last week when Kirk Cousins picked them apart for 425 yards and four touchdowns. Smith is also an underrated runner, averaging almost 24 yards a game on the ground last year, with a high of 70 yards. The Packers just gave up 32 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to Mitch Trubisky two weeks ago, revealing another reason to like Smith. He may not have the upside to provide the monster game Cousins did last week, mainly because he doesn’t have Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to throw to, but I’d feel very comfortable using Smith in this matchup and at this value.
Other options: Mitch Trubisky ($5,500), Joe Flacco ($5,400)
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (LAC): $4,400 at LAR
Ekeler does the majority of his damage in the receiving game, which will definitely help him out this week against the Rams. The Rams have already surrendered 17 catches through the first two weeks to running backs, and we already know the Chargers plan to use their running backs extensively in the passing game (Gordon 15 catches, Ekeler 8 catches). The Rams have solid corners on the outside to defend receivers, and arguably the best interior defensive line in football to stop the run, so the best way to attack them has been with running backs and tight ends. The Chargers don’t seem too adamant about using their tight ends this year, as neither Virgil Green nor Antonio Gates have caught more than three passes in a game yet. I think the Chargers are smart enough to know that using their running backs in the receiving game will probably be their best method to move the ball this week. Ekeler could very easily bring in five or more catches.
Corey Clement (PHI): $4,300 vs. IND
As of right now, Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles each missed practice on Wednesday, so it doesn’t look very promising for them to suit up. I think Clement proved last week that if the Eagles need him to carry a bigger workload, he’s more than capable. Typically just used as a five to eight touch guy, Clement touched the ball 11 times last week and produced 85 total yards to go along with a rushing touchdown. Ajayi played last week, but had to leave the game twice. If he’s out this week, Clement is set to see an uptick in touches. Even if Ajayi is active, as long as Sproles is inactive, Clement is probably in line to see the main receiving back role. Last week when Sproles was out, Clement had five catches, while no other running back had more than one. Pass-catching running backs are a particular weakness to the Colts defense, giving up five catches to Joe Mixon in Week 1, and then a whopping 13 catches last week to Chris Thompson. If both Ajayi and Sproles are out this week, I think Clement is a lineup lock this week. If only Sproles is out, I still think he’s worth consideration. However, if both Ajayi and Sproles are active, I would go down to Sony Michel at $4,000, who lead the Patriots in carries last week and goes against a Lions defense that has allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their first two outings.
Other options: Rashaad Penny ($4,100), Sony Michel ($4,000)
Wide Receivers
Danny Amendola (MIA): $4,400 vs. OAK
The Raiders are off to an 0-2 start, and on the defensive side of the ball, the absence of Khalil Mack has been looming large. However, they’ve actually done a decent job against perimeter wide receivers. They contained Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods in Week 1 (124 total receiving yards between the two), and then held Demaryius Thomas to only 18 receiving yards last week. Slot receivers are the ones they struggle with. Cooper Kupp put together a 5-52-1 stat line in Week 1, before Emmanuel Sanders compiled four catches for 96 yards last week. These two work almost exclusively from the slot. Amendola is strictly a slot receiver as well, so it makes sense to follow the trend and plug him in if you need a cheap wide receiver this week. He’s had four catches in each of his first two games, so that can be looked at as his absolute floor, with potential for more.
Calvin Ridley (ATL): $3,700 vs. NO
Ridley is stupid cheap this week, especially for someone with a pretty clear path to production. Last week the Falcons got Ridley more involved as he hauled in four of his five targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. The major injuries on defense are going to force Atlanta into more pass-heavy game scripts, which we already got a glimpse of in Week 2. With a dangerous New Orleans offense coming to town, this week will probably look similar. The Saints have been particularly susceptible to the big play over the first two weeks, especially to wide receivers that rely primarily on speed. In Week 1, DeSean Jackson scored on pass plays of 58 and 36 yards. In Week 2, Antonio Callaway shook loose for a late 47-yard touchdown. Ridley is a speed guy as well, and is also similar to Jackson and Callaway in that he isn’t the primary option in the passing game. Julio Jones will see a lot of Marshon Lattimore in coverage, and while Lattimore hasn’t gotten off to a great start this season, we can’t forget he was the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2017. It seems likely that Ridley could shake loose for a few big plays while getting less attention on the other side of the field.
Other options: Robby Anderson ($4,900), John Brown ($4,800)
Tight End
Trey Burton (CHI) $3,900 at ARI
Getting Burton at less than $4,000 this week is a steal. We saw Burton get a lot more involved last week against Seattle, especially in the red zone, an area in which Arizona struggles to defend tight ends. Arizona was in the bottom half of the league last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends (six). This year already, they’ve given up one in each of the first two weeks. Burton’s usage in the red zone in Week 2 was encouraging, as it looks like Matt Nagy has come up with some creative ways to use him in that area of the field. Burton’s catch and yardage totals are also trending up, although it’s only a two-week sample size. I’d expect a solid showing from the tight end this week, and the fact that Patrick Peterson will be significantly limiting production on the perimeter makes Burton an even more appealing target over the middle of the field.
Other options: Charles Clay ($3,000), Ian Thomas ($2,800)
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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.
