The last stop of the FedEx Cup playoffs and the 2018 PGA Tour season will be in East Lake, Georgia for the Tour Championship. Only 30 participants have made the cut for this week’s tournament so only the best of the best will be teeing it up. The winner will be crowned on Sunday afternoon.
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Storylines
There are plenty of storylines heading into this week. Obviously, the star-studded field will be the main attraction. Nearly every top-ranked player in the world outside of Jordan Spieth will be competing. Bryson DeChambeau is first in the FedEx Cup standings but could lose control of the top position with a poor showing this week. It won’t be easy for DeChambeau, as East Lake is one of the more challenging tracks on Tour and one that he has never played at in his young career. Justin Rose, who is coming off a devastating loss in a playoff at the BMW Championship to Keegan Bradley, is number two in the rankings and has dominated this course in recent years. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in the last five years.
Tony Finau, who is one of the hottest players not only in the past three tournaments (where he’s carded three consecutive top-10s) but in the past calendar year, will round out the top three. He was selected as the final captain’s pick for the United States team in this year’s Ryder Cup. Every player outside of the top five in the current FedEx Cup standings will have to win this week to even have a chance to hoist the FedEx Cup.
The Course
East Lake is a par 70 that stretches out to 7,346 yards and has hosted the Tour Championship on an annual basis since 2004. It is one of the tougher courses on Tour as stated earlier but that does not mean it’s impossible to go low here. Four players reached double-digits under par in 2017 with three more finishing in double-digits in 2016. Key stats include:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Accuracy
Birdie or Better Percentage
Greens in Regulation
Current Form
Golfers to Target
Stars and scrubs approach seems like the best way to approach this week, mostly due to the fact that ‘scrubs’ are still ranked in the top 30 in the FedEx Cup. That might be the name of the strategy we deploy this week, but there are no real scrubs in this tournament.
Justin Rose $11,400
The new number-one ranked golfer in the world has been playing some phenomenal golf as of late, and as stated earlier, has dominated this course in the past five years. He seems like a no-brainer.
Rory McIlroy $10,700
I was glad to see Rory play so well this week because current form is important in events like this. But most importantly, he’s played so well at East Lake in recent years, including a win in 2016. His chances of winning the actual FedEx Cup are slim, but I like his chances of finishing in the top 10 this week.
Tiger Woods $9,500
Strokes Gained: Approach is my favorite stat to target this week and he’s ranked No. 1 in that category in 2018. His irons have been so money this year, we just need him to start hitting fairways with more consistency. If he can put himself in a good position off-the-tee with more regularity, his approach game, and short game are the best in the world right now. He was good off-the-tee last week so I like for Woods to carry that momentum down to Atlanta.
Keegan Bradley $6,200
Driving Accuracy, Approach, Greens-in-Regulation, and Current Form? Check. He’s one of the cheapest options this week so it makes little sense to fade him.
Jon Rahm $7,700
We may never see Jon Rahm priced this cheap ever again. Rahm is ranked fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 17th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s one of the best players in the world, but he is not priced as such this week. Take advantage of that.
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Shane Davies is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @FantasySD1.
