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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

FanDuel Market Watch: Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

Week One of the 2018 NFL season is in the books, and it was an eventful one to say the least. Some big performances highlighted an exciting slate of games, but with all the drama in the rear-view window, it’s time to look ahead to Week Two. If you’re seeking a leg up on the competition, take a gander at some key players and how their FanDuel value has changed in the aftermath of opening weekend. Let’s kick things off with one of the biggest quarterback breakouts of the season.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes (KC): $7,500 @ PIT (+$800)

Now that’s how you make an entrance. Yes, Week One was technically Mahomes’ second career start, but it was the talented signal caller’s first time under center as an unquestioned NFL franchise quarterback. The hype train was rolling during the off-season but in the opener, Mahomes more than lived up to it. The former Texas Tech standout lit up the Chargers’ defense for 256 yards and four passing touchdowns while adding five rushes for 21 yards. It was an incredible performance and a validation of the franchise’s bold decision to aggressively trade up for him in 2017.

This week, Mahomes and Kansas City’s blistering offense make the trip to Pittsburgh. The Steelers sacked Tyrod Taylor seven times in Week One, and they clearly aren’t pushovers, but the same can be said of the Chargers team Mahomes just decimated. The days of him sneaking up on anyone are clearly over, but even at a $7,500 value, he could return substantial rewards for your lineup.

Deshaun Watson (HOU): $7,400 @ TEN (-$800)

There may not be a better opportunity to play Watson than in Week Two. Yes, the second-year passer had a rough outing against the New England Patriots in his first game back from a torn ACL, but are we really going to give up on him so easily? I hope not.

This week, Watson and the Texans travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans. The Titans just surrendered 230 passing yards and two touchdowns to Ryan Tannehill in his first game back from his own ACL tear, and we all remember what happened in Watson’s only career game against his divisional rivals, don’t we? Watson went insane, throwing for 283 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception while scrambling four times for 24 yards and a rushing touchdown.

The fact that his value has been so significantly depressed by one poor outing may seem crazy, but it’s a very exploitable opportunity. Will Fuller could be back in action against the Titans and if he is, Watson’s outlook improves significantly. I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see another breakout game from the former Clemson stud.

Running Backs

James Conner (PIT): $7,000 vs. KC (+2,000)

File this one under the “no kidding” category. With the Le’Veon Bell holdout lingering into the season, Conner made his first career start against the Cleveland Browns in Week One. I’d say it went rather well. The sophomore tailback did his best Bell impression, taking 31 carries for 135 yards and three touchdowns while adding five receptions for an additional 57 yards. I don’t know about you, but to me, 36 touches for 192 total yards and three scores sounds like the stuff fantasy dreams are made of.

Of course, with a performance like that comes a (necessary) value adjustment and Conner represents the single biggest increase of the week. But don’t let scare you off. Conner received every single Steelers’ running back touch in Week One and should remain locked into a featured role against a Kansas City defense that allowed 292 total yards to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler in the opener. Keep an eye on the Bell situation, but if his holdout continues, you should feel comfortable playing Conner with confidence.

Dalvin Cook (MIN): $6,500 @ GB (-$800)

Now here’s one I don’t understand. In his first game back from a 2017 ACL tear, Cook accumulated 95 total yards on 22 total touches (including a career-high six receptions). Yes, Latavius Murray remained a part of the game-plan, but Cook was clearly locked into a featured role. Any concerns that he was going to be eased back into action should have been allayed after a workload like that.

However, for some reason, Cook has seen an $800 drop on FanDuel in spite of the fact that this week, he’s set to face a Packers defense that allowed 107 total yards to Jordan Howard on 20 touches. That just doesn’t make much sense. Cook is a mega-talent with a guaranteed workload in an offense filled with quality weapons. The sophomore could end up being one of the value plays of the week and is a potential steal if you should decide to roster him.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill (KC): $8,100 @ PIT (+$800)

If FanDuel is going to give an $800 value bump to Mahomes, it only seems fair that they should extend the same courtesy to his favorite target. Put simply, Hill was sensational in Week One against the Chargers, catching seven of his eight targets for 169 yards and two scores. In addition to this, he returned a punt 91 yards to the house and reminded us why he’s arguably the most explosive player in the entire NFL.

A match-up with the Pittsburgh Steelers is neither particularly inviting nor prohibitive, but considering how impressive Kansas City’s offense looked in the opener, Hill will remain an elite option in Week Two. With ridiculous speed and an impressive nose for the end zone, he’s borderline uncoverable right now. There isn’t much value to be enjoyed at this cost, but it’s hard to bet against him when he’s playing at this level.

Chris Hogan (NE): $6,200 @ JAC (-$500)

Hogan had a tough game when the Pat faced the Texans in Week One, securing only one of his five targets for 11 yards. Meanwhile, Rob Gronkowski and Phillip both snared seven receptions and a touchdown apiece. Hogan will bounce back sooner than later, but I wouldn’t expect it against the Jaguars’ formidable defense.

Yes, Odell Beckham Jr. snared 11 receptions for 111 yards against the Jags in Week One, but he’s a generational talent. The rest of the Giants’ passing game wasn’t nearly as productive. To that end, there aren’t a lot of non-Gronk Patriots pass-catchers I would trust in Week Two.

When the Pats and Jags met in the Conference Championship game a season ago, Hogan was largely a non-factor, catching only two passes for 20 yards. I’m not worried about his outlook going forward, as future dates with Detroit, Indianapolis, and Kansas City look very appealing. However, this is probably a week to avoid him and his cost reduction accurately reflects that.

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed (WAS): $6,200 @ IND (+$400)

When healthy, Reed is simply one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and right now he’s healthy and rolling. Reed snared four of his five targets for 48 yards and a touchdown in the opener, and he could be in for an even bigger day in Week Two. I’m not usually a proponent of applying last year’s numbers to a current situation, but the Colts allowed eight receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends in 2017 and never once did they face a player of Reed’s standing during that season. There really isn’t much more to say here. As long as he’s healthy, he remains a high-end option at a position that features very few sure-things.

Cameron Brate (TB): $4,700 vs. PHI (-$700)

A $700 value decrease is an awful lot for a tight end in FanDuel, but in this case, it might be warranted. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just dropped 48 points on what was supposed to be a high-end New Orleans defense, while backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns. However, during this offensive bonanza, Brate was held without a catch on two targets. Meanwhile, fellow tight end O.J. Howard corralled both his looks for 54 yards, while out-snapping Brate 43 to 24.

There’s no question that Brate is a talented football player and will have much better games this season, but the passing game is likely to continue to flow through the team’s talented receivers. Meanwhile, this looks like the year Howard locks up the top tight end role. Brate will give you some quality games in 2018, but a Week Two match-up against Eagles likely won’t be one of them.

David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.

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