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FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 3 (Full Slate)

by Elliott Baas | @ElliottBaasBB | Featured Writer
Sep 19, 2018

We’re looking at the Thursday NFL slate on FanDuel in this article. Every game from Thursday to Monday is on the slate we’re playing, starting tomorrow with NYJ @ CLE. One important thing to note when playing the all-week slate is how the Thursday and Monday games affect ownership. Often when fantasy players choose to play the all-week slate, it’s because they like a player or players in the Thursday or Monday game. That can make Thursday or Monday players a little more chalky than they usually would be if the game occurred on a Sunday. As a result, sometimes we can get more favorable ownership on Sunday chalk.

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Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT @ TB): $8,100
It’s another easy matchup for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers this week as they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have given up the second most passing yards this season behind only the Chiefs, who Roethlisberger carved up for 452 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2. Tampa Bay is without cornerback Vernon Hargreaves for the season, may be without cornerback Brent Grimes once again in this game, and lost safety Chris Conte and cornerback Carlton Davis to injury last week. These injuries only further deplete a secondary already thin in both talent and bodies. This game is on the road, which is always a concern for Big Ben, but Pittsburgh is a slight -1 favorite. With a 53.5 O/U this should be a back and forth shootout.

Running Back

Lamar Miller (HOU vs. NYG): $6,700
The Giants run defense has allowed 275 yards and 5.2 yards per carry through the first two weeks of the season. They aren’t showing many signs of improvement from last season, where they allowed the sixth most rushing yards and had the number 26 rush defense per DVOA. Miller is the number one back in Houston, and as -6 favorites Houston should have some clock to kill in this one. The Giants defense has also been improved through the air thus far, having allowed the second-fewest passing yards through two games. They have Eli Apple and Janoris Jenkins healthy again, which has made a huge difference for them despite struggles elsewhere. Houston may need to rely on the run and attack the Giants’ weak spot on defense.

Matt Breida (SF @ KC): $6,200
Breida separated himself from Alfred Morris in Week 2, erupting for 159 total yards on 14 touches. He played 25 snaps to Morris’ 31, however, San Francisco was nursing a sizable lead over Detroit and Morris is a safe clock-killer. This game has a whopping expected total of 56.0, with Kansas City as -6.5 point favorites. San Francisco will stay in this game with a pass-catching, up-tempo back like Breida on the field and involved. Kansas City’s defense is vulnerable both on the ground and through the air. They’ve allowed the most passing yards and second most passing touchdowns, and they’ve also allowed 4.5 yards per carry rushing. Without Jerick McKinnon Breida is the best weapon on San Francisco’s offense and is the player to own on their end in a probable high-scoring contest.

Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown (PIT @ TB): $8,800
The prospect of Antonio Brown lining up against anyone in Tampa Bay’s secondary is too enticing to pass up. Even when most of these players are healthy they aren’t good, and so many of their defensive backs are dealing with injuries. JuJu Smith-Schuster may have outscored Brown in Week 2, but Brown is still the number one receiver on this team and the preferred option in Pittsburgh. A lineup containing Brown, Smith-Schuster, and Roethlisberger would be a fine deep stack as well.

Tyreek Hill (KC vs. SF): $8,200
Patrick Mahomes ($8,900) is the most expensive quarterback on this slate, which makes sense coming off a six-touchdown game, but it’s not worth paying the Mahomes tax on this slate with so many potential high-scoring games. We can still get a piece of Kansas City in Hill, who has the big-play ability to take advantage of a weak secondary. San Francisco had the number 28 pass defense per DVOA rankings last season, and the only move they made to rectify their problems was signing a washed-up Richard Sherman. They just gave up 347 yards and three touchdowns to Matt Stafford in Week 2 and now must go into Arrowhead to try and stop Hill.

Nelson Agholor (PHI vs. IND): $6,600
Carson Wentz is returning this week for Philadelphia, and he is coming back to a team without Alshon Jeffery or Mike Wallace. That leaves Agholor as the only good wide receiver on this team and the number one by default. Zach Ertz is, of course, one of the best pass-catching tight ends, but that’s about it for Philadelphia right now, even after signing Jordan Matthews on Wednesday since he doesn’t figure to have a huge role this week. Indianapolis had the worst ranked pass defense by DVOA last season, and while they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers through the first two weeks this is an improvement no one should buy. Their success in Week 2 was thanks to Adrian Peterson‘s complete inability to move the ball, dragging the entire team down with him. That shouldn’t be a problem for Philadelphia in Week 2 regardless of Jay Ajayi’s status.

Tight End

Jesse James (PIT @ TB): $4,600
James is coming off a huge Week 2 and his price hasn’t moved an inch on FanDuel. He has carved out a piece of the target share in Pittsburgh and is actually the number one tight end in fantasy right now. Tampa Bay not only has a plethora of problems in their secondary, but they have allowed tight ends to catch 88.2% of targets through the first two weeks. In a game with a massive expected total James gives us more exposure to the Pittsburgh offense for close to minimum price.

Flex

Kenyan Drake (MIA vs. OAK): $6,800
Oakland has allowed the second most rushing yards and the highest yards per carry through the first two weeks. They did face Todd Gurley in Week 1, but they also allowed Phillip Lindsay to shred them in Week 2. Drake out-snapped Frank Gore 36 to 24 and outperformed him on the ground handily in Week 2, more than doubling Gore’s yardage total on only two more carries. Frank Gore reached a milestone in Week 2 by becoming the fourth all-time leading rusher, so hopefully, the Dolphins use him less often now that he’s attained that. Drake has averaged 16 touches per game thus far, and that alone is enough take advantage of a defense that is sorely missing Khalil Mack.

Defense

Cleveland Browns (CLE vs. NYJ): $3,700
The Thursday night game has a 39.5 O/U, yet both defenses are relatively cheap on this slate. Both the Jets and Browns are perceived as bad teams, but if either team has a strength it’s on defense. Cleveland just went into the Superdome and held the Saints in check, limiting Drew Brees to under 250 yards passing and Alvin Kamara to under 3.5 yards per carry. Sam Darnold and Isaiah Crowell are not Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara, not even close. This should be a low-scoring game and Cleveland’s improved defense at home is a great play under $4,000.

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Elliott Baas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Elliott, check out his archive and follow him @elliottbaasbb.

DFS, FanDuel, Featured, NFL