Everything is cyclical. Where we began the 2018 Fantasy Baseball season in a constant state of frustration over weather seemingly ruining the two-start pitching slate week-after-week, we’ve come full circle. If expanded rosters and bullpen games weren’t enough to contend with in September, rain has wreaked havoc across the East Coast this past seven days, with the downpour so prevalent in places like Philadelphia, games were canceled due to unplayable field conditions. It’s uncontrollable, but obviously, something that plays a major factor in Fantasy Baseball. You’ll need to try to stay on top of these things right up until lineup lock in Week 24. Who knows? Maybe we’ll be forced to talk about Miles Mikolas’ projected two-start schedule for the fourth week in a row next Friday…

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Don’t Think Twice

Aaron Nola (9/18 vs. NYM, 9/23 @ATL)
Blake Snell (9/18 @TEX, 9/23 @TOR)
Patrick Corbin (9/17 vs. CHC, 9/23 vs. COL)
David Price (9/18 @NYY, 9/23 @CLE)
J.A. Happ (9/18 vs. BOS, 9/23 vs. BAL)
Mike Foltynewicz (9/17 vs. STL, 9/22 vs. PHI)
Zack Wheeler (9/17 @PHI, 9/22 @WAS)
Stephen Strasburg (9/17 @MIA, 9/23 vs. NYM)

Widely-Owned Options

Corey Kluber (9/18 vs. CWS, 9/23 vs. BOS)
There are a few reasons to worry about Kluber’s effectiveness as a two-start pitcher in Week 24, but few of those reasons have anything to do with him. Sure, he got rocked in his last outing against the Rays, however, even going back to an ugly start on August 9th, Kluber sports a 2.50 FIP and 29.1% strikeout rate over his last seven starts. No, the concern here is schedule manipulation. As easily the best team in the American League Central (not a high bar), Cleveland has essentially been locked into a playoff spot since May. With no pennant race to worry about, Terry Francona has already been messing with his ace’s workload, giving him this weekend off in an attempt to line him up with Game 1 of the ALDS. Who knows if more tweaking is in store. Still, if that’s the case, it’ll cost Kluber a start against the Red Sox, not one versus the White Sox. That’s a great hypothetical tradeoff.

Miles Mikolas (9/17 @ATL, 9/23 vs. SF)
We’ve talked a lot in this space about finding Mikolas’ fantasy value versus his real-life impact. As a pitcher with only 126 strikeouts across 180.2 innings, he’s certainly not a conventional modern pitcher. Still, it’s hard to argue with his floor. Mikolas has 15 wins and a 2.99 ERA for the season. He’s also yet to surrender more than four earned runs in any of his 29 outings. Translation? While he won’t single-handedly win you a week, he’ll also never be the reason you lose. Because of this, Mikolas’ standing tends to fluctuate heavily in my own mind based upon his matchups. In Week 24, he hits the jackpot. The Braves are fine, but they’ve been little better than league average with a 98 wRC+ across the past 30 days. Plus, as Mikolas’ struggles all stem from LHBs, SunTrust Field has ranked as the worst home run park for lefties in 2018 according to Baseball Prospectus. Then it’s the Giants. They flat out can’t hit. It’s not even worth getting into anymore.

Kyle Hendricks (9/17 @ARI, 9/23 @CWS)
There are clear pros and cons to owning a pitcher like Hendricks, however, he’s been the best version of himself over his last 10 starts. In that time, the soft-tossing RHP has possessed a 2.49 FIP with a 24.3% strikeout rate. Now, that last part might not seem like much, yet consider that his strikeout rate for his first 20 starts of 2018 was just 18.2%. That’s quite a jump. Hendricks has also thrived in the area which most, rightfully so, attribute as his specialty: hard-contact suppression. Over that same 10-start span, the 28-year-old has induced a higher soft contact rate from opponents (26.9%) than they’ve managed hard contact (24.0%). It’s not ideal that Hendricks has been pulled from his last two outings before even cresting 80 pitches, but, so is life in the National League.

Anibal Sanchez (9/18 vs. STL, 9/23 vs. PHI)
Everything old is new again. It’s crazy to look back and think that at any point in my preparations for the 2018 Fantasy Baseball season I’d of had an inkling that Sanchez would play such a large factor in the playoffs, yet, here we are. How could you possibly sit a player who has been so steady for the past two months? Going back to July 7th, a span in which the 34-year-old has thrown 66.2 innings for Atlanta, Sanchez sports a 3.10 ERA, a 3.22 FIP, and has struck out 9.45 opponents per nine. Also, of the 272 pitchers to have allowed at least 150 batted ball events for the entire season, Sanchez has the second-lowest average exit velocity at just 84.2 mph. Again, it’s nuts that I have this level of confidence in a man I was sure was toast last year, but the numbers don’t lie.

Jake Arrieta (9/17 vs. NYM, 9/22 @ATL)
Arrieta’s placement in your lineup is all about how you want to deal with floor versus upside. It’s almost comical that I’m leaning towards the latter when it comes to Arrieta in 2018 – a man who could barely generate a swing-and-miss through four months – but he’s at least seen his strikeout totals rise across the past six weeks. Since July 25th, the former Cy Young Award winner has struck out 53 opponents in 53.1 innings thrown. Now, that ratio isn’t exactly going to knock your socks off, but it’s unrecognizable to the version of Arrieta we’d seen in May and June. He’s got just one quality start in his past six trips to the mound, but, in anything 12-teams or bigger, I’d suggest using him in Week 24.

In the Danger Zone

Jon Gray (9/17 @LAD, 9/23 @ARI)
They say you dance with the girl that brought you, but what if that girl suddenly kicks you in the groin? It’s a messy metaphor, I apologize, but, if Gray has had a saving grace all season long, a thing that you could constantly point to as assurance that he was actually pitching well in a sea of unluckiness – it was his FIP. At one point, before being demoted to Triple-A, his FIP was two-full runs lower than his 5.00-plus ERA. However, across his most recent four outings, FIP is betraying Gray. The young RHP has allowed opposing hitters to compile a .385 wOBA in this run, Gray surrendering 3.0 home runs per nine and striking out just 13.0% of the batters he’s seen. That equates to an ugly 7.70 FIP. Sure, neither of his scheduled outings are to take place at Coors Field, but I simply can’t trust Gray in Week 24. Not with that lack of strikeout upside. Not with that FIP.

Alex Wood (9/17 vs. COL, 9/23 vs. SD)
We all have our fantasy blindspots, but I like to think mine’s more than justified. I just don’t ever trust Dodgers’ pitchers to make two starts in a week. Generally, it’s a stigma that gets validated. In the specific case of Wood in Week 24, the writing is already on the wall. Wood was supposed to pitch this Sunday against the Cardinals, however, that honor will now fall upon the shoulders of Ross Stripling. Dave Roberts won’t even say with certainty that Wood will pitch on Monday, though, in his defense, I wouldn’t be quick to hand out responsibilities to a lefty that just surrendered seven runs to the Reds. Plus, who even knows? If Stripling pitches well, is he in the rotation? It’s certainly on the table. Wood will pitch at some point in Week 24. More than likely, you’ll use him. Yet, I highly doubt he makes that start Sunday against the Padres.

Streamers Under 50%

Jake Odorizzi (9/17 @DET, 9/23 @OAK)
Aaron Sanchez (9/17 @BAL, 9/22 vs. TB)
Joe Musgrove (9/17 vs. KC, 9/23 vs. MIL)

Look, we can all – hopefully – admit when we’re wrong. While I certainly don’t knock my logic in disliking Odorizzi all season long, since the end of June, the Twins’ RHP has been pretty good and pretty consistent. That latter bit is the most important. Really, when it comes to the archetype of extreme flyball pitchers, if they’re not surrendering home runs, they’re going to be alright. Odorizzi has not been allowing home runs. Going back to June 28th, a span of 75.1 innings for Odorizzi, the 28-year-old has given up only 0.7 long balls per nine. This is a guy who has seen 69 fly balls leave the park since the beginning of 2016. Odorizzi also possesses a 3.49 FIP and a 23.1% strikeout rate in that time. That’s more than enough to be viable. Both the Coliseum and Comerica rank inside the bottom-third of ESPN Park Factors rating for favorable long ball stadiums. It all lines up for Odorizzi.

Streamers Under 25%

Wade Miley (9/17 vs. CIN, 9/23 @PIT)
Tyler Glasnow (9/17 @TEX, 9/22 @TOR)
Daniel Norris (9/18 vs. MIN, 9/23 vs. KC)

Here’s a list of starting pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings and can claim to have an ERA under 2.50 and a groundball rate above 50%: Wade Miley. End of list. It’s a small sample, his strikeout rate isn’t great, and his FIP is nearly a run-and-a-half higher – but that still means it’s only 3.64. That’s perfectly fine. Miley has allowed two runs or fewer in 12 of this 13 starts this season. What more does he have to do? Plus, in terms of matchups, the Pirates have been essentially unable to score across the past 30 days. Pittsburgh’s .113 ISO in that time frame is the second-lowest figure in all of baseball. Miley is a high-floor two-start option.

Not Unless You’re Desperate

Brad Keller
Anthony DeSclafani
Framber Valdez
Jordan Zimmermann
Andrew Suarez
Alex Pena
Jason Vargas
Trevor Richards
Sam Gaviglio
Andrew Cashner
Tyler Mahle
Bryan Mitchell
Dylan Covey
Adrian Sampson

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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.