The decisions never stop. Now that the NFL season is underway, draft dilemmas make way for lineup quandaries. Week-by-week rankings have become an industry staple, giving gamers a multitude of opinions to absorb before making a final call.

Any ardent researchers craving more than one or two sources will derive great value from FantasyPros’s Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). More than 100 analysts have submitted their Week 1 valuations, so the ECR gauges the field’s preferences while limiting the clout of a contrarian. Deviating opinions, of course, is inevitable (and useful) when trying to predict an unknown outcome.

I have admittedly fallen victim to groupthink in the past, but I’m learning to stand by my own convictions even when the consensus disagrees. While it’s easy to see why the pack values the following players differently, I have them slotted higher in my personal rankings. I’ll try to sway you to my side, but perhaps another expert will convince you otherwise. Staying open to different perspectives is vital before filing a lineup.

Note: Both sets of the following standard-scoring rankings include Thursday night’s participants.

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Quarterback

Undervalued: Blake Bortles (JAC) – ECR: QB20; My Rank: QB16
Full disclosure: I just re-watched Season 2 of The Good Place, so maybe Jason Mendoza got in my head. Or maybe Blake Bortles remains an underrated fantasy option. A strong finish secured his third straight campaign as a top-15 quarterback, and the Giants surrendered an NFL-high 19.4 fantasy points per game to the position last season. Olivier Vernon (ankle) is unlikely to play, robbing Big Blue of their premier pass-rusher. Bortles exceeded 300 passing yards in each of his three December contests against other bottom-10 defenses, so I might also be undervaluing him.

Overvalued: Deshaun Watson (HOU) – ECR: QB5; My Rank: QB8
There was no glaring overvalued quarterback, so Deshaun Watson gets the dubious honor even if the discrepancy mostly amounts to me preferring the safer Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins in favorable home tilts against the Jets and 49ers, respectively. Last year he posted 301 passing and 41 rushing yards with two touchdowns and picks apiece at New England, so most rankers are confident in his ability to again handle the AFC champions. While I don’t doubt it either, I’m a tad more dubious of him immediately taking the NFL by storm in his return from a torn ACL. He was also bound to experience regression before getting hurt, as a 9.3 touchdown percentage would comfortably make him the most prolific passer of all time. I also have Andrew Luck two spots (QB13) lower than the pack out of similar uncertainty of him immediately returning to full strength with no hiccups.

Running Back

Undervalued: Giovani Bernard (CIN) – ECR: RB41; My Rank: RB36
Giovani Bernard is not the type of player anyone intends on starting in Week 1. He’s a depth piece for when bye weeks beckon and injuries — especially if it’s one to Bengals starter Joe Mixon — get out of hand. The steady hand is thus receiving little respect in the opening rankings. The experts are smitten with Mixon (RB11), and it’s hard to blame them with Cincinnati facing an Indianapolis defense that relinquished the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs last season. Mixon closed a disappointing rookie season strong, but Bernard also concluded 2017 by registering 507 yards over his final five games. He’s a strong, well-rounded player deserving of playing time, and even a dozen touches could lead to PPR flex appeal against a soft opponent.

Overvalued: Adrian Peterson (WAS) – ECR: RB29; My Rank: RB39
The cases for Adrian Peterson: Volume, volume, and volume. At least investors are hoping as much. The 33-year-old opens 2018 as Washington’s starting running back in place of the injured Derrius Guice. After getting dumped by New Orleans, Arizona fed him 138 times in just six games. He still, however, finished the three losses with 85 combined yards. The Cardinals only had Larry Fitzgerald and an empty backfield before the former MVP arrived. Washington, on the other hand, can mix in Rob Kelley and/or Samaje Perine in running situations with Chris Thompson playing on third downs and pass-catching situations. Or Alex Smith can just eschew the ground game in favor of Jamison Crowder, Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson, and Jordan Reed. Peterson has averaged 3.1 yards per carry in 13 games over the last three seasons. Arizona allowed 3.5 yards per run last season, so there’s a good chance Peterson backers get burned by a 17-carry, 50-yard output. Better hope for a handoff inside the three.

Wide Receiver

Undervalued: Mike Evans (TB) – ECR: WR15; My Rank: WR11
Facing Marshon Lattimore without Jameis Winston has the experts pegging Mike Evans as a WR2. The matchup is a more salient point; he caught just six of 19 combined targets for 68 yards in last year’s two meetings against the Saints. As noted by Mike Tagliere in his extensive Week 1 primer, opposing passers mustered a feeble 49.2 quarterback rating when targeting New Orleans’s elite cornerback last season. Just don’t shy away from the tough competition because of Ryan Fitzpatrick. In two starts together, Evans caught 11 of the veteran’s 22 targets for 170 yards. He finished an underwhelming season 11th in targets (135) despite missing a game, so I’m keeping him inside my top 12 on the promise of heavy volume. This is probably splitting hairs, as I’m not in any hurry to use the fifth-year wideout in DFS lineups because of my higher ranking. I actually removed him from the top 10 after deciding I wasn’t giving enough recognition to Lattimore’s shutdown abilities. Sometimes it’s smart to reconsider your difference from the herd.

Overvalued: John Brown (BAL) – ECR: WR46; My Rank: WR66
I try never to be a “never again” fantasy manager, but at this point, I need to see a John Brown bounce-back to believe it. After he compiled 60 catches for 816 yards and five touchdowns in the last two seasons combined, I thought I was taking a leap of faith just by placing him as my WR66. The ECR, however, sees him as a top-50 option against the Bills, who allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt and fewer passing touchdowns (14) than every team except the Vikings last season. The surprising playoff participant ranked fifth in fantasy pointed surrendered to quarterbacks but last against running backs, so the Ravens — favored to win by 7.5 points at home — will gladly limit last year’s second-worst passing offense in favor of a heavy ground game. Brown is a dart throw who needs a deep play to pay off. The matchup makes it a low-probability gamble not worth taking.

Tight End

Undervalued: Delanie Walker (TEN) – ECR: TE6; My Rank: TE4
All I needed was confirmation of his availability to lock Delanie Walker into my TE4 spot. Although he dealt with an injured toe during the preseason, the 34-year-old was not listed on Tennessee’s Week 1 injury report. He should be a full go on Sunday, which is great news considering the Dolphins relinquished an NFL-high 94 receptions to tight ends last season. He had one of his worst games against them (three catches for 25 yards), but trust his bigger-picture consistencies and Miami’s defensive struggles to yield a redemptive showing as long as he’s healthy. Keep in mind these rankings include Zach Ertz, so he’s the best of the non-elite options and a high-end DFS play for those not punting the volatile spot.

Overvalued: Jimmy Graham (GB) – ECR: TE5; My Rank: TE8
The Bears, who just acquired Khalil Mack, allowed 6.0 points per game to opposing tight ends last season. Jimmy Graham’s value is contingent on finding pay dirt, and there’s a solid chance it happens. Nobody garnered more targets inside the 20 (26) or 10 (16) last year, and Aaron Rodgers should create some red-zone opportunities. Perhaps I’m just a conservative ranker who feels more comfortable with volume and some consistency. Graham, after all, posted lines of 1, 0, and minus-1 yard last season. As seen above, I’d prefer Walker because of his superior matchup and floor. I also ranked Jordan Reed higher because he hasn’t had a chance to get hurt yet. Perhaps Green Bay’s new target could swap places with No. 7 tight end Kyle Rudolph, but he’s also a red-zone threat with an easier opponent (49ers) and quarterback who has historically favored tight ends more than Rodgers.

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