Week 2 was the total opposite of week 1 when it comes to D/ST scoring. While there were 12 defensive touchdowns in week 1, the Bears’ pick-six to shut the door on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football was only the 2nd across the whole league this week. After 14 teams D/STs scored 10+ fantasy points in week 1, only 6 did so in week 2. It was still a crazy week, though. Just about every NFL kicker missed a crucial field goal, and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes continued to go nuts. The NFL compensated for their slight improvement to the catch rule by outlawing sacks. NFL Refs continue to have it out for the Lions, for some reason. The Packers and Vikings proved yet again that shortening overtime from 15 to 10 minutes was a horrible idea, recording the second tie and the second scorigami of the season. Vontae Davis just up and left, retiring from the Bills at halftime.
Looking forward to week 3, we have some hugely imbalanced games – 8 different teams are favored by at least 6 points, including Minnesota at a bananas -16.5 against Buffalo. That’s good news for us, because it means there are some real home-run D/ST plays this week. Here are my week 3 projections:
| Rank | Team | Opponent | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Own% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | MIN | BUF | 41 | -16.5 | 12.25 | 2.79 | 1.32 | 0.19 | 9.67 | 99% |
| 2 | CHI | @ARI | 37.5 | -6 | 15.75 | 2.23 | 1.37 | 0.24 | 8.20 | 82% |
| 3 | JAC | TEN | 39.5 | -6.5 | 16.50 | 2.07 | 1.48 | 0.21 | 7.83 | 99% |
| 4 | BAL | DEN | 43 | -5 | 19.00 | 2.51 | 1.68 | 0.17 | 7.78 | 90% |
| 5 | HOU | NYG | 41 | -6 | 17.50 | 2.45 | 1.35 | 0.18 | 7.51 | 87% |
| 6 | CLE | NYJ | 39 | -3 | 18.00 | 2.55 | 1.39 | 0.14 | 7.28 | 9% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 7 | NYJ | @CLE | 39 | 3 | 21.00 | 2.68 | 1.29 | 0.17 | 6.77 | 34% |
| 8 | DAL | @SEA | 41.5 | 1 | 21.25 | 2.48 | 1.39 | 0.15 | 6.62 | 14% |
| 9 | PHI | IND | 47.5 | -6.5 | 20.50 | 2.64 | 1.27 | 0.14 | 6.61 | 99% |
| 10 | SEA | DAL | 41.5 | -1 | 20.25 | 2.38 | 1.33 | 0.15 | 6.57 | 16% |
| 11 | MIA | OAK | 44 | -3 | 20.50 | 2.10 | 1.52 | 0.13 | 6.54 | 3% |
| The You Can Surely Do Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 12 | NYG | @HOU | 41 | 6 | 23.50 | 2.69 | 1.44 | 0.15 | 6.54 | 6% |
| 13 | GB | @WAS | 46 | -3 | 21.50 | 2.30 | 1.36 | 0.17 | 6.46 | 25% |
| 14 | NE | @DET | 51.5 | -6.5 | 22.50 | 2.29 | 1.42 | 0.15 | 6.31 | 69% |
| 15 | KC | SF | 56 | -6 | 25.00 | 2.87 | 1.46 | 0.12 | 6.29 | 15% |
| 16 | ARI | CHI | 37.5 | 6 | 21.75 | 2.45 | 1.35 | 0.12 | 6.27 | 14% |
| 17 | OAK | @MIA | 44 | 3 | 23.50 | 2.31 | 1.47 | 0.14 | 6.14 | 2% |
| 18 | CAR | CIN | 43.5 | -3 | 20.25 | 2.05 | 1.28 | 0.13 | 6.07 | 50% |
| 19 | WAS | GB | 46 | 3 | 24.50 | 2.75 | 1.39 | 0.10 | 6.00 | 20% |
| 20 | LAR | LAC | 48 | -7 | 20.50 | 1.85 | 1.31 | 0.14 | 5.94 | 100% |
| 21 | CIN | @CAR | 43.5 | 3 | 23.25 | 2.07 | 1.30 | 0.17 | 5.82 | 12% |
| 22 | DEN | @BAL | 43 | 5 | 24.00 | 2.08 | 1.24 | 0.16 | 5.47 | 95% |
| 23 | TEN | @JAC | 39.5 | 6.5 | 23.00 | 1.77 | 1.29 | 0.13 | 5.29 | 11% |
| 24 | TB | PIT | 53.5 | 1.5 | 27.50 | 2.29 | 1.42 | 0.11 | 5.11 | 1% |
| 25 | PIT | @TB | 53.5 | -1.5 | 26.00 | 1.91 | 1.45 | 0.10 | 5.01 | 68% |
| 26 | ATL | NO | 53 | -3 | 25.00 | 2.01 | 1.31 | 0.09 | 4.96 | 32% |
| 27 | IND | @PHI | 47.5 | 6.5 | 27.00 | 2.29 | 1.24 | 0.10 | 4.80 | 0% |
| 28 | LAC | @LAR | 48 | 7 | 27.50 | 1.91 | 1.24 | 0.13 | 4.49 | 93% |
| 29 | NO | @ATL | 53 | 3 | 28.00 | 1.89 | 1.31 | 0.13 | 4.48 | 57% |
| 30 | BUF | @MIN | 41 | 16.5 | 28.75 | 2.24 | 1.24 | 0.11 | 4.40 | 1% |
| 31 | DET | NE | 51.5 | 6.5 | 29.00 | 2.23 | 1.26 | 0.10 | 4.38 | 12% |
| 32 | SF | @KC | 56 | 6 | 31.00 | 2.12 | 1.15 | 0.07 | 3.39 | 7% |
Tell Me About The Top Picks
- MIN vs BUF: Minnesota hosting Buffalo might be the best D/ST play all year. Buffalo is a hot mess, and Minnesota’s defense has been great. Any time a team has an implied point total of less than 20, you want to be targeting them, and it’s very rare to see less than 17. Buffalo is all the way down at 12.25.
- CHI @ ARI: A great defense against a terrible offense you say? Even on the road, Chicago should crush Arizona.
- JAC vs TEN: There’s a bit of a pattern here – Jacksonville is an excellent defense, and the Titans offense, especially without Marcus Mariota, is bad. There is uncertainty about Mariota – only 2 of the 15 sports books listed on Vegas Insider have a line for this one, as of Tuesday morning. I’m assuming Mariota doesn’t play – I would expect the line to move if he does, but Jacksonville should still be at least -3. If you are serious about fantasy football, you have to follow Dr. David Chao, a.k.a. @ProFootballDoc on Twitter. His expertise on injured players is invaluable. He expressed concerns that Mariota might miss significant time or be ineffective when he returns, because of reports that Mariota is having trouble gripping the ball due to a nerve issue, which could be very long-term.
- BAL vs DEN: Baltimore hosting Denver is yet another strong defense, at home, against an anemic offense.
- HOU vs NYG: The Giants are like a teenager with a Ferrari: they have the shiny toys – Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley – but no real ability to use them well and are probably just going to hurt themselves. The Texans at home should be able to take advantage.
- CLE vs NYJ: The Cleveland Browns have been incredible to watch this year. There is a real possibility that they would be 2-0 with an average kicker. Despite their woes, the defense has looked excellent. I expect them to finally get that elusive win at home against a Jets offense who only put up 12 points against the Dolphins last week.
- NYJ @ CLE: On the other side of that contest, the Jets defense is also poised to do well. The #1 fantasy defense of 2018 is unlikely to keep up their rate of 3.5 turnovers/game against Tyrod Taylor, but they should succeed against a weak Browns offense. I expect this game to be painful to watch, which is good news because that means very little scoring.
- DAL @ SEA: There are always a few offenses you want to target every week with your DST. The Bills, Browns and Cardinals fall into that category. The Buccaneers surprised everyone by not being one of those teams. We’re getting to the point where the Seahawks might be – Russell Wilson was sacked 6 times in each of the first two games. Sure, they were against two of the better pass-rushing teams in the league, but the badness of the Seahawks’ pass protection can’t be overstated. Fans can hope for some improvement when Doug Baldwin returns – maybe Wilson gets rid of the ball quicker if there’s actually anywhere to go down-field – but the Cowboys should take advantage in the meantime as slight underdogs.
- PHI vs IND: It’s easy to overstate the impact a QB has on his team’s defense, but the best way he can help them is by staying on the field. The Eagles dominated time of possession when Carson Wentz was playing last year (and still led the league with Nick Foles, just not by as much), and his looming return has them as heavy favorites at home against a Colts offense that has been poor, despite Andrew Luck‘s return.
- SEA vs DAL: This is the second game where both teams are recommended DST plays. Despite their offensive woes, the Seahawks are still (slight) home favorites against a not-great Cowboys offense. Expect this to be a low-scoring game.
- MIA vs OAK: Much to my delight, the Raiders have looked awful under Gruden so far. A middle-of-the-road defense like Miami should be able to take advantage at home.
How Did We Do Last Week?
Here are the results from last week’s recommended starters:
| Rank | Team | Opponent | O/U | Spread | Proj. Fpts | Act. FPTS |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||
| 1 | LAR | ARI | 46.5 | -13 | 8.17 | 13 |
| 2 | LAC | @BUF | 43 | -7 | 7.81 | 10 |
| 3 | CHI | SEA | 43 | -3 | 7.18 | 17 |
| 4 | NO | CLE | 50 | -8.5 | 6.96 | 6 |
| The Still A Fine Choice Tier | ||||||
| 5 | PHI | @TB | 44 | -3 | 6.84 | 6 |
| 6 | ATL | CAR | 44 | -5.5 | 6.76 | 4 |
| 7 | DEN | OAK | 45 | -6 | 6.74 | 2 |
| 8 | WAS | IND | 45.5 | -5.5 | 6.7 | 5 |
| 9 | SF | DET | 47.5 | -5.5 | 6.57 | 4 |
| 10 | HOU | @TEN | 45 | -2 | 6.56 | 2 |
| 11 | NYJ | MIA | 44 | -3 | 6.51 | 9 |
Fortunately for us, three of the six teams to score 10+ fantasy points were in our top 3. Unfortunately for us, we got a lot of middling scores from the second Tier, with the exception of Denver and Houston who did poorly, and a good performance from the Jets. I would also like to highlight that the Ravens, who I ranked as non-starters at 15th (for which everyone thought I was crazy), ended up with -1 fantasy points.
As always, I’m happy to answer any questions on twitter.
Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.
