If you’re playing Daily Fantasy Football, then you need to be stacking, especially in GPP contests. If you’re not, you’re losing. Stacking is a pretty simple concept. It’s when you roster the same players from one team in your DFS lineup. Crucially, you can also stack players from both teams in the same game when there’s potential for a shootout. When you’re able to successfully target these ideal game scripts and stack appropriately you can win big. With that in mind, let’s focus in on some key game scripts and correlating stacks for Week 1.
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Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs Buffalo Bills
Stack: Alex Collins (FD: $6,700; DK: $5,600) & Baltimore D/ST (FD: $4,800; DK: $3,800)
This stack is going to be chalk-tastic, but is important to target, nonetheless, especially in cash games. Kickers aside, a team’s RB1 has the strongest fantasy point correlation with its defense. This makes intuitive sense. When a team’s defense is able to control the game, keep the offense on the field and create short fields, the offense is more likely and often inclined to ride its running back and control the clock. That’s why Collins and the Ravens make for an ideal Week 1 stack.
Not only is Collins affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he appears to be severely underpriced given his volume. After the Ravens bye last year, Baltimore fully committed to Alex Collins as the team’s bellcow. He averaged over 19 touches per game over the last seven weeks of 2017, helping lead the team to a 5-2 record and a near playoff birth. Since then, Danny Woodhead retired and the Ravens did nothing to address the running back position, suggesting the team is comfortable with Collins as its lead back. Everything we’ve seen through the preseason has indicated Collins is Baltimore’s lead back.
The matchup is pristine. We already want to target favored running backs at home and Collins checks both boxes. In addition, Buffalo gave up the most fantasy points in the league to running backs last year. He’s viable in both cash and GPPs. Similar to running backs, the best defenses to target are those favored while playing at home. Buffalo has the lowest implied point total of the week. It lost its three best offensive linemen from last season and Nathan Peterman will be starting just the third game of his career. All of that adds up to an ideal matchup for both. Although the ownership will be through the roof for this stack, you’d be remiss not to have some exposure in cash games.
New England Patriots (-6) vs Houston Texans
Stack: Chris Hogan (FD: $6,700; DK: $6,100) & James White (FD: $5,500; DK: $4,000)
Sometimes, fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard. This game has the highest over/under on the slate (50.5) and features what project to be two of the premier offenses in football. When you have a shootout like this one, it’s prudent to stack both teams and benefit from the chaos. This stack gives access to both sides of the ball without paying up for high-priced quarterbacks Tom Brady (FD: $8,600; DK: $7,200) and Deshaun Watson (FD: $8,200; DK: $6,700).
White is the cheapest piece of the Patriots pie and makes for an especially good play on DraftKings with its full PPR scoring. Both Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are less than 100% with knee injuries, and the Patriots receiving corps is seriously lacking behind Hogan and Rob Gronkowski. The Texans excelled in run defense last year. I expect the Patriots to use the quick-passing attack as an extension of the running game, which plays right into White’s favor.
Hogan should be first or second in targets on the team with one of the highest implied totals on the slate (28.25). Over the last two seasons, he has more targets than Gronk within the 10-yard line. He’s egregiously underpriced for someone that was a top-10 wide receiver last year when healthy, especially considering the lack of viable receiving options in New England right now. Hogan tagged Houston for 4-68-2 last year and that was with Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola siphoning targets. Gronk (FD: $7,900; DK: 6,900, nice) is always in play, but White and Hogan’s prices allow you to pay up for Hopkins.
Bring it back with: DeAndre Hopkins (FD: $8,800; DK: 8,300)
With so many great cost-saving options on the main slate, Hopkins has potential to go lower-owned than he should in such a good matchup. With Malcolm Butler gone, Hopkins should win his duel with Stephon Gilmore, a solid but not elite cornerback. Considering he led the league in targets last season, Hopkins is the safest way to get in on the Texans action and has massive target upside if they’re in catch-up mode or the game proves to be a shootout. Both the Patriots and Texans ranked bottom-six in points allowed to receivers last year.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs Cincinnati Bengals
Stack: Andy Dalton (FD: $6,800; DK: $5,800) & AJ Green (FD: $8,400; DK: 7,300)
This stack is a bet on volume and, hopefully, unsexiness. Jack Doyle is not a sexy fantasy name. Andy Dalton, less so. AJ Green is universally agreed to be a stud, but coming off a “down” year, his ADP was the lowest its been since 2012. Unsexiness isn’t ideal in day-to-day life (trust me), but in DFS it offers an opportunity to find value and low ownership.
This stack is appealing given the game’s sneaky shootout potential. It’s in a dome, the Colts get Andrew Luck back, and it has the fourth-highest over/under on the slate.
The bet here is that Andrew Luck (FD: $7,300; DK: $6,100) will have high ownership in his year-long return to the field. Not only will players be clamoring to use him, but he’s discounted for his usual production. While everyone rushes to stack him with T.Y. Hilton, we can get in on the same action through a more contrarian but probably safer stack. Don’t forget that the Bengals allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last season.
Dalton makes the stack work given his low price on both sites. Bengals reporter Joe Goodberry has done excellent work over the years studying Dalton’s play against “common” and “uncommon” opponents. In short, he’s much better against “uncommon” opponents. The Colts were a top-10 matchup for both receivers and quarterbacks last year and then lost top corner Rashaan Melvin and best defensive end John Simon in the offseason.
Dalton finally has Tyler Eifert back and healthy, gets John Ross to take the top off the defense and the Bengals improved their offensive line with the additions of left tackle Cordy Glenn & center Billy Price.
I don’t get it either, but we now have a 101-game sample size of AJ Green being a significantly better fantasy asset on the road:
Bring it back with: Jack Doyle (FD: $5,600; DK: 3,600)
As mentioned above, the Bengals were a nightmarish matchup for wide receivers last year. The Bengals weakness, meanwhile, was defending tight ends, where they were a top-10 matchup for the position. Doyle is an especially awesome play on DraftKings where you get a full point per reception, and he’s even cheaper relative to his peers.
Yes, Luck is technically ‘back.’ But he looked rusty and tentative in the preseason – where things are slower and schemes are more vanilla – and concerningly didn’t take shots down the field.
Andrew Luck average depth of target:
2016: 8.9 yards
2015: 10.2
2014: 9.2
2013: 8.4
2012: 10.82018 Preseason: 5.7 yards
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) August 31, 2018
Until Luck convinces us he’s back in a real NFL game, I’ll be treading lightly. If his average depth of target (aDOT) remains at its lowly level from the preseason, then Doyle stands to benefit the most. He’s the cheapest and safest way to get in on a team with a high implied point total at home.
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Eli Weiner is a correspondent at FantasyPros, a writer for numberFire and a contributor and editor for SconnieSportsTalk. For more from Eli, you can view his archive or follow him @eweinerfantasy.
