NFL Picks And Predictions From The Analytics Experts

With the 2018 NFL season just days from kicking off, our algorithms have been hard at work crunching the numbers on every NFL game. Before we get to some opening week NFL analysis, though, here’s a quick rundown on how we use data and math to predict the NFL.

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Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from TeamRankings.com, one of the most accurate NFL predictions sites (proof & more proof). They also offer NFL Survivor Picks, NFL Pick’em Contest Picks and NFL Betting Picks.

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Our Approach To NFL Picks

Every expert has a specialty when it comes to projecting the NFL; we focus on large-scale data analysis and predictive modeling. Since 2000, we’ve been gathering thousands of stats on NFL teams and players, and using quantitative data to develop algorithms that not only predict individual games, but also project where each team will end up at the end of the season.

The core team behind our predictive models includes a Mathematical and Computational Science major from Stanford; a guy with a degree in neuroscience from Johns Hopkins; and another Stanford grad who studied physics and is an actual rocket scientist. (They all happen to like football almost as much as they like numbers.)

Using Multiple Prediction Models

Our high-level process for making NFL picks involves running several proprietary computer models that each use a different mathematical approach to making predictions. We combine the results of these models in an intelligent way to generate picks for a game.

Analytics geeks sometimes refer to this approach as “ensemble forecasting.” In short, leveraging multiple predictive models often produces better predictions than relying on any one model alone, since every projection model tends to have its particular blind spots.

Some of the models we’ve developed and use include:

• Predictive Power Ratings Model. This model primarily looks at the number of points by which a team has won or lost its games, while adjusting for opponent strength and game location. The result is a numerical team rating, expressed in terms of points, that represents how good a team is. Comparing the predictive ratings of two teams yields a projected winner and an expected margin of victory (equal to the better team’s rating minus the worse team’s rating), assuming the game is played on a neutral field.

• Similar Games Model. This model first creates a statistical profile of each of the two teams in a matchup (e.g. Ravens vs. Bills), and notes important contextual information about the game (e.g. the Vegas odds, the distance the away team traveled). Then, it combs through over a decade of historical NFL game results and computes a “similarity score” for each historical game. The results of the most similar historical games — that is, the past games in which a team statistically similar to the 2018 Ravens played a team statistically similar to the 2018 Bills — drive the predictions for the future game.

• Decision Tree Model. This model is the output of a machine learning algorithm that evaluates hundreds of variables for historical NFL games. It does what might be easiest to think of as complex, high volume, statistically significant trend analysis. The general problem with trend analysis — especially in the mainstream NFL media — is that most juicy sounding trends (e.g. “teams coming off a loss on Monday night are 15-5 in their last 20 games”) are simply the result of randomness and not actually predictive. However, this model analyzes trend data in a sophisticated and more meaningful way.

NFL Picks And Predictions For This Week

Without further ado, let’s get to some picks and model predictions for the first week of the 2018 NFL season. We’ll dive into three specific matchups in this post, but remember you can get all our predictions for NFL and college football by signing up for our free trial or grabbing one of our final preseason discounts, which end Tuesday.

Note: All predictions and odds are as of post time, and may change in the future.

Kansas City Chiefs at LA Chargers Predictions

The Patrick Mahomes era in Kansas City is set to begin. After beating Denver last year in Week 17, Mahomes became the first quarterback the Chiefs drafted to win a game for the team since Todd Blackledge in 1983. It’s an understatement to say that fans are excited for him to replace Alex Smith.

Mahomes posted video game-like numbers at Texas Tech, capping off his college career with more than 5,000 yards passing and 41 touchdowns in 2016, and he has a chance to put up big numbers in KC with a group of impressive weapons that include Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins.

There is reason to be concerned that Mahomes’ arrival will hurt the team’s ball security, however, given his struggles with picks in training camp and Smith’s amazingly low 33 interceptions in 2,436 pass attempts over the last five seasons. KC has won eight in a row vs. the Chargers and have most recently done it by thrashing the Chargers on the ground with Hunt (327 yards in two games), so don’t be surprised if the team leans on him again to take the pressure off Mahomes in the season opener.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are the Vegas pick to win the AFC West in 2018 after improving to 9-7 last year. Much attention is paid to veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, but the Chargers’ defense was the biggest reason for their success last year, ranking No. 1 in the NFL with only 17.0 points allowed per game.

Rivers was effective with 7.9 yards per pass attempt in 2017, and the hope is that second-year wideout Mike Williams can offset the loss of injured tight end Hunter Henry. The Chargers will likely challenge a Chiefs secondary that struggled during the preseason, especially if safety Eric Berry is unable to play due to a heel injury.

Power Ratings Prediction:  Chargers, 68.4% win odds
Similar Games Prediction:  Chargers, 50.8% win odds
Decision Tree Prediction:  Chargers, 61.5% win odds
TeamRankings Spread Pick: Chiefs +3.0, 53.8% confidence (playable at typical -110 payout odds)

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Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Predictions

Buffalo had its back against the wall near the end of Week 17, needing the Bengals to knock off Baltimore in order to get a playoff spot for the first time since 1999. One Andy Dalton pass later, and their dreams came true.

The Ravens hope to get revenge at the kickoff of 2018, and quarterback Joe Flacco has been the offseason headliner. The former Super Bowl winning quarterback has been inconsistent over the last three seasons, and finished last year with only 18 touchdowns in 16 games. The Ravens helped him by adding a trio of new wideouts in Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead, while also drafting two tight ends.

Of course, Baltimore also drafted former Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson 32nd overall, but the Heisman Trophy winner doesn’t yet appear ready to challenge for Flacco’s job. Baltimore ranked dead last in yards per pass attempt last season, so it will be interesting to see if the Ravens try to show off their new weapons early.

Buffalo was successful last season in part due to their turnover margin, which ranked eighth best in the NFL. They did a great job of protecting the ball in a conservative offense, ranking as the second most run-heavy team in football and employing quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who had the lowest interception percentage in the NFL.

Taylor is gone to Cleveland, and the alternatives — rookie Josh Allen and second-year Nathan Peterman — don’t look like great prospects to protect the ball relative to Taylor. That’s a story to watch, facing a Ravens team that was No. 1 in takeaways last season with 2.1 per game.

Power Ratings Prediction: Ravens, 67.0% win odds
Similar Games Prediction: Ravens, 61.9% win odds
Decision Tree Prediction: Ravens, 76.3% win odds
TeamRankings Spread Pick: Bills +7.0, 52.6% confidence (barely playable at typical -110 payout odds)

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San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings Predictions

New $84 million man Kirk Cousins begins his Vikings career vs. San Francisco. There are high expectations that he’s the missing piece in Minnesota after the team made it to the NFC Championship last year.

The 49ers did struggle against the pass (6.9 yards allowed per attempt) in 2017, so it wouldn’t be surprising for the Vikings to try to establish their new quarterback early. This game also marks the return of running back Dalvin Cook after he suffered a knee injury early in his rookie campaign — though he’s expected to share snaps with Latavius Murray.

The 49ers were effective at stopping the run last season, holding teams to less than four yards per carry, but they were also the most rushed upon team in terms of opponent attempts (30.7 per game). San Francisco starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo went a perfect 5-0 as the team’s starter after being acquired from New England last season, and the offense averaged nearly 29 points per game with him under center. That said, Garoppolo still threw five interceptions, and Minnesota’s defense, which allowed only 5.9 yards per pass last season — second best in the NFL — could be the toughest challenge of his career so far.

Garoppolo does get the aid of Pierre Garcon, returning from injury this season, but the team suffered a tough loss earlier this week when new running back Jerick McKinnon tore his ACL. He will likely be replaced by veteran Alfred Morris on early downs.

Power Ratings Prediction: Vikings, 68.3% win odds
Similar Games Prediction: Vikings, 68.8% win odds
Decision Tree Prediction: Vikings, 70.3% win odds
TeamRankings Spread Pick: 49ers +6.0, 51.5% confidence (not playable at typical -110 payout odds)

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