I spent much of Sunday morning debating whether to drop Jimmy Garoppolo for Ben Roethlisberger. My wife, largely based on their pictures (but also factoring in how their names sounded), insisted I stick with Garoppolo. Leading good offenses in great home match-ups, I had both as strong QB1 plays. Roethlisberger had no business even being on the waiver wire. But the possibility of Jimmy G going 2016 Matt Ryan in Kyle Shanahan’s offense made dropping him difficult.

In the end, I went with my gut, against my wife, and swapped in Roethlisberger. He rewarded me with 39 points, the top score of the week. Garoppolo managed only 17 points, a middling QB2 performance. Despite the massive gap in their final scores, I really did think it was a close call before game time.

It’s crazy how even a close decision like that can have wildly different outcomes. It just goes to show that, despite what she claims, my wife is not actually right about everything. Let’s get to the Week 3 tiers.

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Every-Week Starters

Patrick Mahomes (KC): vs. San Francisco
Tom Brady (NE): @ Detroit
Cam Newton (CAR): vs. Cincinnati
Drew Brees (NO): @ Atlanta
Aaron Rodgers (GB): @ Washington
Deshaun Watson (HOU): vs. New York Giants

Patrick Mahomes was an easy add to the elite tier following his six-touchdown outing in Pittsburgh. Regression, unsustainable, yada yada…he’s making his home debut against a sub-par 49ers defense in a game with a whopping 56-point over/under and 31-point implied team total. Should be another monster week.

After all those years covering for Matt Patricia’s defenses, I’m sure Tom Brady is eager to get a shot against one. The Lions ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA after giving up 30+ points to Sam Darnold and Jimmy G, and will likely be without their two best players (Ziggy Ansah and Darius Slay).

“Precarious” is how I would describe Deshaun Watson after two weeks. From a fantasy perspective, he was strong in Week 2, throwing for 310 yards and a touchdown, adding 44 yards on the ground, and ending up with 22.8 fantasy points (QB10). But it didn’t look pretty, and the fact that it came against the Titans (28th in Football Outsiders‘ defensive DVOA) isn’t comforting. He remains a must-start, barely, against a Giants team allowing just 5.6 net yards per attempt (6th lowest).

QB1s

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): @ Tampa Bay
Kirk Cousins (MIN): vs. Buffalo
Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB): vs. Pittsburgh
Matt Ryan (ATL): vs. Saints
Russell Wilson (SEA): vs. Dallas
Matthew Stafford (DET):  vs. New England
Carson Wentz (PHI): vs. Indianapolis
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): @ Kansas City
Andrew Luck (IND): @ Philadelphia

Ben Roethlisberger has well-known home/road splits, but don’t overthink this. The Buccaneers weren’t very good to begin with, and injuries have forced two rookie cornerbacks into their starting lineup. Through two weeks they’ve given up the highest completion percentage and the second-most passing yards in the league. Pittsburgh’s defense didn’t look any better last week, making this one a projected shootout. (And for what it’s worth, Roethlisberger was fine in road games last year, averaging 17.2 fantasy points).

I made two big errors with Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. First, I ignored that he’s been a productive fantasy quarterback when surrounded by bigger, stronger receivers who can turn his interceptions into completions. Second, I didn’t mention that he went to Harvard. We know the Fitzmagic ride will crash eventually, as it always does, but not this week against a Steelers defense that just got absolutely torched on its home field. And did you know that Fitzpatrick went to Harvard?

The number 32 passing defense according to Football Outsiders? Well, it’s Buffalo, obviously…they’re the worst at everything. But 31st is the Saints, despite what should’ve been a soft early-season schedule against Tampa and Cleveland. I don’t think the Saints have regressed all the way back to the Rob Ryan era, but they’re clearly not the top-10 defense we saw last season. Matt Ryan looked much better in Week 2, completing over 80% of his passes and throwing two touchdowns. At home in what should be yet another high-scoring game, Ryan is a solid start.

Russell Wilson wasn’t horrible on Monday Night Football, and he’s started the year with two tough matchups (@ Denver, @ Chicago). Wilson has also started slowly in recent years, averaging five fewer points per game in Weeks 1-3 over the last three seasons. So better times may be ahead. Still, watching him run for his life behind that offensive line, clash with his coordinator, and feed targets to Brandon Marshall and Will Dissly…it’s hard to feel confident starting him. With Dallas in keep-away mode again (2:59 average time of drive, 4th highest in the NFL) and a low over/under, I don’t see a lot of fantasy points coming from this game. Wilson is still a decent play, but he’s officially benchable if you have other options.

It’s a tough call with Carson Wentz. It’s his first game back off a late-season knee injury. His touchdown rate from a season ago is due to regress. The Eagles receiving corps is so banged up they brought back Jordan Matthews. That’d be like if the Raiders got so desperate for a coach that they brought back Jon Gru… oh. Anyway, the match-up looks like a positive one, but for what it’s worth the Colts defense has been middle-of-the-pack so far. Vegas is more optimistic, given Philadelphia has a strong implied team total (27.25). Bottom line, I’m fine starting him. And while my wife thinks “fine” is the gravest of insults, I just mean that I think he’ll be fine.

It’s hard to project Jimmy Garoppolo to blow up this week — he’s only topped 20 fantasy points once in seven starts for the 49ers and never thrown more than two scores. Despite scoring on 42% of their drives (eighth best in the league) so far, the 49ers have only four touchdowns. That was a problem last year, too. And yet, it’s hard to resist this match-up. The Chiefs have allowed 107 more passing yards than any other team and are giving up 34 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, by far the most in the league. We’ve yet to see the Chiefs defense in Arrowhead, a traditionally difficult place to play, but even as road underdogs the 49ers have a solid implied team total (25). If Jimmy G can turn field goals into touchdowns against a soft Chiefs defense, he could have a big day.

Streamers

Blake Bortles (JAC): vs. Tennessee
Tennessee has done a lot to try to improve a pass defense that has ranked bottom 10 the past two years. A for effort, F for execution. They’re allowing 7.9 net yards per attempt through two games, third most in the league. That makes Blake Bortles, fresh of a thrashing of the Patriots in which he threw touchdowns to four different receivers, a good streamer at home this week. Bonus points if Leonard Fournette doesn’t play…the Jaguars seem much more dangerous when they’re not committed to ground and pound.

QB2s

Jared Goff (LAR): vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Alex Smith (WAS): vs. Green Bay
Andy Dalton (CIN): @ Carolina
Ryan Tannehill (MIA): vs. Oakland
Philip Rivers (LAC): @ Los Angeles Rams
Mitch Trubisky (CHI): @ Arizona
Dak Prescott (DAL): @ Seattle
Joe Flacco (BAL): vs. Denver
Case Keenum (DEN): @ Baltimore
Derek Carr (OAK): @ Miami

I can’t say Andy Dalton is a great start this week, but there is a lot going in his favor. He’s coming off 10 days rest, his receiving corps is healthy, and between Joe Mixon’s injury and the way Carolina’s defense sets up, the Bengals should be throwing a fair amount. Ranked ninth in points after two games, we might be sleeping on Dalton as a solid QB1.

I don’t hate Ryan Tannehill this week in the hallowed 1:00 game against a West Coast team traveling east. It’s just hard to trust Miami’s offense. Adam Gase knows exactly what he has in Tannehill, which is why the Dolphins rank dead last with just 51 pass attempts through two games. With the Raiders unlikely to lead for much in this one, we’re probably heading for another 25-attempt day.

I would have a very hard time playing Philip Rivers this week. The Rams are allowing 3.9 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks through two games. They haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row (Derek Carr and Sam Bradford), but still…3.9!

Remember when we all had dial-up modems and it took like 10 minutes for a simple webpage to load? That’s what Mitch Trubisky looks like post-snap. He’s not a bad thrower, but when the first read is not there…yuck. I would have him lower but Arizona’s defense is second worst in net yards per attempt (8.8) and their offense is second worst in yards per drive (17.5). In other words, the Bears defense is going to put the Bears’ offense in a lot of cushy spots.

One thing I noticed while watching Case Keenum the past two weeks is that he’s not good. After two home games against average and below-average secondaries, he’s sitting at a 59.5% completion percentage, three touchdowns, and four interceptions. Wake me when it’s Chad Kelly’s turn.

Benchwarmers

Eli Manning (NYG): @ Houston
Marcus Mariota (TEN)/Blaine Gabbert (TEN): @ Jacksonville
Sam Bradford (AZ): vs. Chicago
Josh Allen (BUF): @ Minnesota

Is it possible we owe Ben McAdoo an apology? The Giants are a train wreck. I think it will get better — Pat Shurmur overcame similar protection issues in Minnesota — but I want no part of that o-line against Houston’s pass rush.

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Scott Cedar is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his archive and follow him @scedar015.