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RB Snap Count Analysis: Week 1 (2018 Fantasy Football)

RB Snap Count Analysis: Week 1 (2018 Fantasy Football)

Before a running back can worry about receiving ample touches, he first needs to get on the field.

Snap counts are especially important to monitor in Week 1 after spending the entire preseason guessing some teams’ backfield usage. A deeper look can dampen a strong debut or offer hope for a sluggish start.

Jay Ajayi investors celebrated his two touchdowns on NFL’s opening night, but his limited snap count should slow the victory lap. He saw the field on just 40.3 percent (29-of-72) of Philadelphia’s offensive plays, so he remains a touchdown-dependent RB2 until Doug Pederson honors his promise of making last year’s midseason acquisition his “workhorse” back.

There’s plenty of ground to cover considering all the backfield quagmires entering 2018. Not every situation matched our preseason expectations, so it’s time to reassess some of the murkier timeshares.

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Denver Broncos

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec YDs
Royce Freeman 29 15 71 0 0 0
Phillip Lindsay 26 15 71 3 2 31
Devontae Booker 19 2 4 2 2 11

 
Sunday’s biggest surprise saw Phillip Lindsay match Royce Freeman’s 15 carries for 71 yards in a 27-24 win over Seattle. The undrafted rookie played three fewer snaps than the third-round pick, but he also added a receiving touchdown on one of his two catches.

Freeman was expected to receive competition from Devontae Booker, who spent most of his time protecting Case Keenum’s passing pocket. Few accounted for Lindsay when expecting Freeman to follow a strong preseason with a featured rushing role while Booker only spelled him in passing situations.

Unlike Booker, Lindsay carries fantasy relevancy beyond threatening Freeman’s good time. The 5’8″, 190-pound back showed tremendous explosiveness and was given too much volume to immediately dismiss as Denver’s Austin Ekeler. He’s worth a waiver-wire stash, even if it’s too early to trust him in a standard-sized league’s starting lineup. Those who drafted Freeman, however, shouldn’t panic just yet. Denver didn’t execute any red-zone runs, and that’s where the neophyte should make his biggest mark. Go ahead and drop Booker, who now may only see the field to block.

San Francisco 49ers

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec YDs
Alfred Morris 34 12 38 0 0 0
Matt Breida 32 11 46 2 1 5
Kyle Juszczyk 26 0 0 2 1 56

 
Week 1 was a dud for San Francisco’s entire backfield. That shouldn’t be a major stunner. The hosting Vikings, who ranked second against the run last year, never trailed on Sunday. This was a wait-and-see test run that yielded inconclusive results.

To the chagrin of anyone who planted a flag, Alfred Morris and Matt Breida split the playing time and touches fairly evenly. On one hand, that’s good news for Breida, initially the less likely to develop a featured role in place of the injured Jerick McKinnon. Yet Morris has never caught 17 passes in a season, so nobody should expect anything of the 29-year-old when his squad is a road underdog against a stout defense. His younger teammate, however, also could not make any noise as a receiver in the same scheme that led Carlos Hyde to 59 catches last season. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk was the only back to help on this front.

A Week 2 home bout against the Lions — who yielded 102 yards and two touchdowns to Isaiah Crowell — should offer a better understanding of San Francisco’s backfield hierarchy. This seems like a better spot for Morris to hoard more carries, including red-zone opportunities. Breida maintaining an even split this weekend would prompt a recalibration.

Tennessee Titans

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec YDs
Dion Lewis 49 16 75 8 5 35
Derrick Henry 20 10 26 1 1 5

 
Perhaps this is merely confirmation bias on my part, as I never understood why Derrick Henry kept going way before Dion Lewis. He went from a committee with DeMarco Murray to a timeshare with a more talented teammate, so it was hardly surprising to see the former Patriot make the most of his extended opportunities.

The twice-delayed contest was a wonky one, and some will argue it was merely a suboptimal game script for Henry. That’s the problem. Lewis thoroughly outplayed his teammate as a rusher and pass-catcher. Besides, the Titans never trailed by more than 10 with its offense on the field. (Darius Jennings returned the kickoff after Miami took a 24-10 advantage.) Henry — who had a potential 62-yard touchdown eradicated by a holding penalty — did not break a run of more than five yards, but Lewis averaged 4.7 yards per carry with a four-yard touchdown. He also received eight targets to Henry’s one, a bad sign for anyone banking on the Alabama alum to improve as a receiver.

Lewis is comfortably the better PPR choice, and he’s probably the better standard option on a weekly basis as well. Durability is his primary concern. An injury is the only way Henry backers can trust him in the starting lineup. A big run like the one reversed is required for him to coexist with a healthy Lewis.

Seattle Seahawks

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec YDs
Chris Carson 25 7 51 5 3 28
Rashaad Penny 25 7 8 5 4 35

 
Just by looking at Rashaad Penny’s feeble eight rushing yards, one would think Chris Carson has nothing to worry about. Yet after weeks of praise bestowed upon the former seventh-round pick, the duo logged the same amount of carries, targets, and snaps.

Carson also coughed up one of his 10 touches. Fumbles are the quickest way for a young running back to fall out of favor. This isn’t a new problem either. He relinquished a goal-line fumble in Seattle’s second preseason bout while Penny was still recovering from a finger injury. Before his backers panic, head coach Pete Carroll said Carson still “really took the lead at the position.” Then again, he also talked the back up all summer before dividing their reps straight down the middle.

Although Carson made more of his opportunities, a timeshare would stifle both backs from generating starting value. The Seahawks get another tough road tilt at Chicago, which contained Jamaal Williams to 47 yards on 15 carries. Running behind their anemic offensive line is tough enough before factoring in a split distribution.

Indianapolis Colts

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec YDs
Jordan Wilkins 46 14 40 3 3 21
Nyheim Hines 37 5 19 9 7 33

 
Those who decided to avoid Indianapolis’s backfield altogether won’t harbor any major regrets after Week 1. Things went about the way one would reasonably expect. Jordan Wilkins handled the running duties while Nyheim Hines worked as a pass-catching back. And no, the Christine Michael breakout still isn’t happening. He ran for nine yards on two carries in just three snaps.

Wilkins got the chance to flourish in Marlon Mack’s absence, but he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry with a long rush of 12 yards. Needing a touchdown to turn around an uninspiring outing, he instead got stuffed at the one. Hines at least helped PPR backers by catching seven of nine Andrew Luck checkdowns. He could pile up the receptions in a high-volume, dink-and-dunk offense, a role Mack is unlikely to poach.

Indianapolis will face Washington — last season’s worst rushing defense — in Week 2, so there’s a potential for someone to have a big game. Yet Mack’s uncertain status makes it especially difficult to start any of them. That will likely remain a common sentiment throughout the season.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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