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RB Snap Count Analysis: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)

RB Snap Count Analysis: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)

Week 3 saw a season-high six running backs crack 100 rushing yards. The opportunities weren’t as fleeting as usual, as 10 backs received 20 or more touches. One of the muddiest backfields received some resounding clarity when Chris Carson handled 32 carries, surpassing James Conner’s 31-rush Week 1 for the new 2018 benchmark.

Some situations, such as the first one highlighted below, are nice and easy to decipher. Yet many more committees continue to flummox fantasy managers who just want a reliable RB2 and/or flex starter. At least one back on each of the following four squads could earn that status, but it’ll come with some headaches and heartbreak along the way.

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Carolina Panthers

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Christian McCaffrey 67 28 184 2 2 10 0
C.J. Anderson 3 2 9 1 1 24 1

 
This column is primarily focused on messy and divided backfields. Let’s briefly take a stroll in the opposite direction to highlight Christian McCaffrey playing all 67 of Carolina’s offensive snaps in Week 3’s 31-21 victory over Cincinnati. Two months ago, Ron Rivera said it’d be “ideal” for his second-year back to handle 25-30 touches per game. Most onlookers snickered until wondering if he planned to meet that lofty goal because of a busy preseason. Well, Sunday was an ideal day. McCaffrey obliterated previously single-game highs of 15 carries and 66 rushing yards to gain 184 rushing yards on 28 handoffs. He also recorded a career-low 10 receiving yards on two catches, but that didn’t deter him for cementing an RB6 finish in PPR formats. With 271 rushing yards, he trails Matt Breida and Ezekiel Elliott by just three yards for the NFL’s lead. Only eight backs have garnered more carries (46), and none of them have exceeded his average of 5.9 yards per run. Although these 30-touch games won’t become the norm, even a steady and efficient 15-25 make him a legitimate RB1 despite entering an early bye without a single touchdown. C.J. Anderson, on the other hand, can’t be rostered in standard leagues despite collecting a 24-yard receiving touchdown on his lone catch of the season.

Detroit Lions

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Kerryon Johnson 33 16 101 3 2 9 0
LeGarrette Blount 26 16 48 2 2 17 0
Theo Riddick 21 0 0 3 3 36 0

 
On Sunday night, Kerryon Johnson became Detroit’s first single-game 100-yard rusher since Barry Sanders  Reggie Bush in 2013. He’s clearly the Lions’ best running back, but it’s not clear they know it. Once again receiving most of the early running work, LeGarrette Blount matched the rookie’s 16 carries. Four of them came in the red zone, where he continued his inefficiency by registering three yards. With Detroit surprisingly never trailing against New England, Theo Riddick was relegated to a lesser role after drawing 19 targets in Weeks 1 and 2. This situation is particularly susceptible to game script. As showcased early, Riddick will make the most PPR noise when Detroit is playing from behind. Blount’s carries have doubled in each week (4, 8, 16), but capping Johnson’s upside is his main fantasy relevancy. If given a steadier role in a better setting, Johnson probably gets treated like an RB2 with room for growth. Instead, he’s stuck in a committee on a pass-first offense. Investors anticipating an ascent to stardom may have to settle for a flex play who shows spurts of promise. There’s no doubting Johnson’s ability. The volume, however, is another story entirely.

Green Bay Packers

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Jamaal Williams 30 5 29 3 2 16 0
Ty Montgomery 20 4 16 7 6 48 0
Aaron Jones 17 6 42 1 1 5 0

 
Jamaal Williams was not Green Bay’s highest-scoring running back in Aaron Jones’ 2018 debut. Neither was Jones. The Packers quickly faced a 14-0 deficit during Sunday’s humbling 31-17 loss at Washington, so Aaron Rodgers attempted 44 passes and shared just 15 handoffs. Jones looked sharp in limited opportunities, but Ty Montgomery salvaged the only solid fantasy output by catching six of seven targets in 20 snaps. The biggest takeaway from the first game with all three backs active: This may not be a clean situation that reveals a winner like last year when the trio took turns handling the bulk of Green Bay’s touches. “I really like the rotation of having all three guys because they’re distinctly different, but all three can play all three downs, and that says a lot,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy said after the game, per ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky. Jones remains the high-upside bet, but Williams is unlikely to vanish with an injured Rodgers in need of pocket protection. Montgomery still needs the ideal game script just to contribute as a PPR flex play. Yet his presence complicates matters between Williams and Jones, either of whom would make a terrific start at home against Buffalo — let’s not overreact to Week 3’s stunning upset over Minnesota — if not for workload uncertainty. Williams wields the higher floor, and will thus receive a higher rank, but Jones could win matchups if given 15 touches.

Miami Dolphins

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Kenyan Drake 29 5 3 4 2 7 0
Frank Gore 16 6 12 4 0 0 0

 
The Dolphins were home favorites over the Raiders, who yielded 232 rushing yards and a touchdown in Weeks 1 and 2. That added up to the perfect matchup for Kenyan Drake. Even a 60-40 split with Frank Gore should have presented ample opportunities for the third-year back. He instead turned five carries and four targets into 10 total yards. Although the Dolphins trailed early, they were never far enough behind to completely abandon the run game. They were simply better off trusting Ryan Tannehill, who continued his superb comeback by completing 17 of 23 passes for 289 yards and three touchdowns. He also led the team in rushing (26) while Albert Wilson added a 52-yard passing score. Because they had their way downfield, the Dolphins ran just 39 plays. While that’s mostly an anomaly, only the Cardinals have run fewer plays than the Dolphins (51.7) this season. It’s alarming to see Drake’s dud in the perfect spot, but at least he still logged more snaps than Gore and received the only red-zone carry. He’s nevertheless slipping from a potential breakout RB2 into unreliable flex territory. His stumble didn’t do anything to bolster Gore’s standing as waiver-wire fodder.

Tennessee Titans

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Derrick Henry 32 18 57 1 0 0 0
Dion Lewis 30 9 26 3 3 14 0

 
It appears I prematurely declared victory for Dion Lewis. Instead of only trusting Lewis, managers now can’t trust either. After outplaying Derrick Henry in more Week 1 opportunities, he has received fewer touches in consecutive wins. Those who drafted Henry couldn’t wish for much more than 18 carries in back-to-back games with a healthy Lewis. Too bad he didn’t do anything with them. Henry recorded 56 and 57 yards against the Texans and Jaguars, respectively, while failing to catch a single pass. (He did, however, throw one for eight yards.) He mustered his first and only double-digit run (14 yards) of the season in Week 3. It still beats the 82 total yards Lewis has mustered since opening 2018 with 110 yards and a score. There’s simply no Titan to trust with Marcus Mariota injured and ineffective. Henry is a particularly poor Week 4 play against the Eagles, who have limited opponents to 185 rushing yards on 54 attempts. Lewis could regain the spotlight in a loss, but he’s now an unsteady flex choice.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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