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The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2018 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2018 Fantasy Football)

It’s Sunday morning in the (insert your name) household, and while everyone else sleeps, you’re sitting there at your computer, hoping that you’ll have some sort of divine intervention that’ll help you decide who you’re starting in your fantasy lineup. Not just that, but you also wanted to play some DFS this weekend. Now you’re cursing yourself for staying out with friends last night. Come to think of it, your Week 1 opponent, Dave, wasn’t drinking last night because he “had a stomach ache.”

Fortunately for you, the reinforcements have been brought in to save you. As highlighted in the introduction to The Primer last week, this is your one-stop shop for fantasy decision-making. You’ll be able to read about every player from every game, from a redraft standpoint, to a DFS standpoint. From cornerback matchups, to defensive scheme problems, to home/road splits, you’re going to get the information here.

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If you’re new here, where have you been? But seriously, here’s what you can expect from this mega-article every single week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. There’ve been some readers who asked if my own fantasy teams could impair my judgement, but when you manage 17 different rosters like I do, you don’t play favorites. I’ve told everyone (including my leaguemates) that I’m an advice-giver first, player-second. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button. Let’s get this party started.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 48.5
Line: IND by 2.5

QBs
Andy Dalton:
Some will look at Dalton and think, “Nope, I’ve been down that road before.” I urge you not to make this mistake with any player, as there are opportunities for you to steal value where others just overlook it. Dalton has now played 109 career regular season games, which gives us a giant sample size with home/road splits. Almost no quarterback averages more fantasy points on the road, but Dalton does. A full point per game, actually. His offensive line has been reworked this offseason with the acquisitions of Cordy Glenn and Billy Price, but the gelling has taken longer than they’d hoped. Still, the Colts front-seven lacks firepower to continually pressure Dalton. When you add in their lack of talent in the secondary, they’ll likely be dropping linebackers into coverage, or playing nickel defense more than most. Because of the mismatches at wide receiver, Dalton is a strong play in Week 1 and can be considered a low-end QB1 in season-long leagues. He can also be considered for both tournament and cash lineups in DFS, as opponents averaged 69.2 plays per game against the Colts last year.

Andrew Luck: It’s a risky proposition playing Luck after the mixed-bag of preseason results. What concerns most is that he hasn’t been taking deep shots down the field, something that he and T.Y. Hilton had succeeded on for much of their careers. Luck does get a break with Vontaze Burfict out on suspension, though that helps the Colts run game more than anything. With Burfict out of the lineup last year, the Bengals allowed 6.84 passing yards per attempt compared to just 6.52 yards per attempt with him on the field. Still, learning a new offense combined with Luck’s question marks, Hilton’s shoulder injury, and Marlon Mack‘s hamstring, the Colts are going to be a hard team to predict in Week 1. Because of that, keep Luck out of anything but a tournament DFS lineup. In season-long, I’d rather play Andy Dalton in Week 1, who is available in nearly every league. If Luck plays well, just think of it this way – you have your season-long quarterback set.

RBs
Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard:
If you drafted Mixon, you expect him to get off to a blazing start in Week 1 against the Colts. They allowed eight different running backs to post RB1 numbers against them last year, which was the second-most in the league. They also lost inside linebacker Jon Bostic, who racked up 97 combined tackles last year, and then just traded away Antonio Morrison to the Packers two weeks ago. The Colts entire linebacking corps has started a combined seven games in the NFL, including zero for projected starters Skai Moore and Darius Leonard, who are both rookies. Mixon should produce RB1 numbers, even though he’s a road underdog (usually not a great combination). He should be safe enough to use in cash and with the way he’s been used in the passing-game during the preseason, he’s got tournament-winning upside. Bernard is going to be a 30 percent player who’ll see 8-10 touches per game, giving him emergency flex value in good matchups, which this is, but without bye weeks, he’s just an RB4-type player.

Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins, Christine Michael, Nyheim Hines: I have a feeling we’re going to see the amount of running backs listed here to be cut-down after Week 1. We should get a better picture as to how Frank Reich wants to use the timeshare between these guys, as the preseason did nothing to clarify the picture. If the preseason taught us anything, it’s that Hines isn’t likely to be very involved from the get-go. If Mack’s hamstring is okay, he should be considered the leader of this timeshare, though his workload will be affected due to his missed practice time. Because of that, he’s a risk/reward RB3/RB4 who can hit a homerun at any time. The fact that Vontaze Burfict is suspended for this game opens some holes in the Bengals defense, but the question remains whether or not the Colts will control this game. With Hines struggling, you should expect Mack to get most of the receiving work, but again, soft tissue injuries can linger. Wilkins is the sleeper-play here, as he’s near the minimum in DFS, but brings a three-down skill-set that can pay off with Mack dinged up and Hines struggling. You don’t want to play Wilkins in season-long (unless Mack sits), but he’s worth a deep-play in tournaments. As for Michael, we don’t really want to go down that road again, right?

WRs
A.J. Green:
Similar to Andy Dalton, Green’s numbers have been much better on the road throughout his career. In 51 career road games, Green has posted 19.0 PPR points per game, which is much larger than his 15.2 PPR points per game at home. Combine that with the fact that the Colts don’t have anyone in the same zip code of talent on their defense, and he’s an elite-lock at wide receiver this week. The starting group of cornerbacks for the Colts is some combination of Kenny Moore, Pierre Desir, Nate Hairston, and Quincy Wilson, though Hairston and Wilson missed the third preseason game with injuries. Green will likely see Desir the most, who allowed a 99.0 QB Rating when targeted last year. Green might be the top wide receiver this week, so use him wherever you can.

John Ross: You saw a glimpse of what Ross could do during the third preseason game, as he made professional football players look like second-graders who were chasing a fifth-grader. He’s a baller, but one who is clearly behind A.J. Green for targets, and maybe even Tyler Boyd, who is heading into his third-year with the team. Still, Ross will be matchup up with Kenny Moore the majority of time, who is a formerly undrafted free agent. With this game being played indoors on the exact track that Ross set the 40-yard-dash record, one play can make his week. In his first game starting, he should be treated as an upside WR4/5 option in season-long, but makes for a solid contrarian play in tournaments, as Green will be heavily owned.

Tyler Boyd: The issue with betting heavily on Boyd is that he saw just 32 targets last year while Brandon LaFell literally just occupied a spot on the field. Granted, he only played 10 games, but John Ross should be the second in line for targets. It seems like Boyd will see Nate Hairston the majority of time, though he’s questionable for the game with a hamstring injury. Boyd did look solid in the preseason, but here’s the issue. What’s a great game for him, 5/40/1? The issue is that he isn’t safe enough to play confidently, but also doesn’t present tournament-winning upside. Knowing the lack of talent on the other side of the ball, it wouldn’t shock me if any of the Bengals wide receivers scored, which is why Andy Dalton is such a good play.

T.Y. Hilton: After dealing with a shoulder injury throughout training camp, Hilton returned in time to play in the third preseason game where he played 28 snaps and was targeted three times. It appears he’ll be just fine, though the questions were never really about him. His potential comes down to Andrew Luck‘s health and ability to throw the deep-ball. Hilton has been moved all around the formation in past years and I’d expect that to continue under Frank Reich, as they’ll want to get him away from William Jackson, who is an upcoming shutdown cornerback. There were nine times he was targeted on go-routes in 2017, in which he allowed absolutely nothing. But the Bengals haven’t used him to shadow, so Hilton will see some of Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard as well. Consider Hilton an upside WR2 who comes with plenty of risk, though the volume should be there. I’d avoid him in cash lineups but knowing that both these teams allowed high snaps to opponents in 2017, it could be a shootout, making Hilton a fine tournament play.

Ryan Grant: Clearly the No. 2 wide receiver in the offense, Grant was someone who most overlooked this offseason. I hate to sound like a broken record, but production in this offense all stems from Andrew Luck and his ability to distribute the football. Grant will have a much tougher matchup than Hilton, however, as he’ll see the most of William Jackson. If Luck is back, there will be plenty of matchups to play Grant, but this isn’t the one to target. He’s just a WR5 against the Bengals.

TEs
Tyler Eifert:
He’s reportedly feeling pretty good as we head into Week 1, but Eifert is someone who has now missed 22 of the last 32 games. In case you missed it, he was also a free agent this offseason, though he garnered zero attention from other teams, leading him to take a one-year deal to return to the Bengals. The lack of linebacker experience on the Colts team is ridiculous, so Eifert should absolutely be on the streaming radar. Prior to losing multiple starters, the Colts weren’t that bad against tight ends last year, allowing just one to top 63 yards all season, but it’s a new year with a new cast. Eifert has never been a yardage guy, as he’s topped 70 yards just four times in his career. This comes down to touchdowns, meaning he’s someone to avoid in cash lineups, but offers tournament viability. I’d consider him a high-end TE2 in season-long leagues.

Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron: After the panic that was Ebron coming in to steal Doyle’s role, a lot of that was put to bed in the preseason, as Doyle was clearly a favorite of Andrew Luck, seeing almost all of the starter reps, while Ebron worked primarily with the second-team offense. If you’re looking to play one of them this week, it’s Doyle. With Vontaze Burfict out on suspension, the middle of the field is a weakness for the Bengals, and it just happens to be Luck’s strength right now. I should also probably mention that Doyle tagged this defense for 12 catches, 121 yards, and a touchdown last year, which was the No. 1 PPR performance by a tight end all year. He should be considered a TE1 in season-long leagues and a solid cash-game option in DFS. Ebron is nothing more than a contrarian play who I’d prefer the wait-and-see approach.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Total: 40.5
Line: BAL by 7.5

QBs
Nathan Peterman:
Let’s think about this… would you want to start a rookie quarterback behind a shoddy offensive line who is on the road against one of the better pass defenses in the league the last few years? The Bills thought about it and decided that Josh Allen should not start. Peterman will get the second start of his career and it can’t go worse than his debut that had him throw five interceptions, right? The implied team total for the Bills sits at 16.5 points, which doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. In fact, I thought that was a tad high. Did you know that the Ravens allowed just three QB1 performances in 2017? In fact, there were just five quarterbacks who scored more than 13.7 fantasy points. Don’t start Peterman here, guys.

Joe Flacco: Some people are motivated by different things, but it appears that Flacco was motivated due to the Ravens drafting Lamar Jackson with a first-round pick. Whatever the case, Flacco actually looked good this preseason, though he runs into a tough matchup in Week 1. If there’s something the Bills have a strength with, it’s their secondary that includes one of the best safety duos in the league. In fact, there were just three quarterbacks all season who threw for more than one touchdown against them, and we know not to count on a Flacco rushing touchdown, right? In a home game that should net them an easy win, expect the Ravens to run a simplistic offense in this game to ensure a victory. There’s not a format I’d like to use Flacco in this week, though I do suspect he’ll have spot-start appeal at times this year.

RBs
LeSean McCoy:
Smoke ’em if you got ’em, that’s the saying right? Well, it’s play him if he’s on the field with McCoy, even if he is part of a lackluster offense. The offensive line lost three starters this offseason in Cordy Glenn, Eric Wood, and Richie Incognito, which is going to make life difficult, even for the shifty McCoy who has averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry in every season of his NFL career. While I don’t expect him to get much on the ground against a stout Ravens run-defense that has allowed less than 3.5 yards per carry while at home the last two seasons. With that, there were eight running backs who totaled at least 38 yards through the air against them, which is where McCoy should get some solid yardage. He’s not an elite-play but should get enough yardage to get into the RB2 conversation of season-long leagues. He’s an avoid in DFS, as his price is just too steep for the risk.

Alex Collins: After resting him throughout the preseason, it’s clear that the Ravens are going in with the intentions of Collins being their clear-cut lead back this season. I’ll be the first to say that Kenneth Dixon looked good in the preseason and that I’m a fan of his game, but Collins straight-up balled out last year, finishing as the RB9 after the Ravens bye in Week 10, as they started to involve him more in the passing-game. Keep in mind that Collins did that well with Flacco playing bad football and the Ravens missing their top offensive lineman, Marshal Yanda. The Bills were the stomping ground for running backs as the season went on last year, as they allowed seven running backs to score 20 or more PPR points against them, which was tied for the second-most in the league. The road there was easy to figure out, as they allowed 18 touchdowns on the ground to running backs, including 14 in the final nine games. At home as a big favorite, Collins should be in the RB1 conversation this week. He’s safe to use in cash games and deserves tournament consideration.

WRs
Kelvin Benjamin:
Say what you want about the 6-foot-5 wide receiver who has appeared out of shape for the last few seasons, but he’s a touchdown away from being a fantasy starter, and he’s quite good at snagging those. During the draft process, Josh Allen actually reminded me of a slightly less mobile Cam Newton, so the change to Allen shouldn’t be too rough on Benjamin once that happens. We don’t have much to go off-of with Nathan Peterman, though he’d be wise to look the big fella’s way. Benjamin catches a break this game, too, as Jimmy Smith is out on suspension. It’s still not an easy matchup, as they still have Brandon Carr and Marlon Humphrey as starters behind Smith. It’s why they allowed just nine wide receivers to perform as a WR2 or better last year, which ranked sixth in the league. Knowing he’ll see six-plus targets, he’s on the WR4 radar, but I’m not excited if I have to start him, as it’s likely touchdown or bust. He doesn’t even present the necessary upside to be used in tournaments this week.

Zay Jones: After seeing 74 targets from a better quarterback last year, Jones is going to have serious issues with Nathan Peterman/Josh Allen as his quarterback. Here’s a fun fact on Jones for you: In PPR formats, Zay Jones‘ 0.95 fantasy points per target in 2017 ranked as the worst over the last five years, of wide receivers with at least 50 targets. Not great, eh? He’ll be matched up with Marlon Humphrey the majority of time, a cornerback who allowed just 32 receptions on 67 targets last year, and that was as a rookie. Jones is the type of player who stays on waivers until he can prove that he belongs in the NFL.

Michael Crabtree: We haven’t heard much on the Joe Flacco/Crabtree connection this offseason, which is quite odd considering he was paid to be the No. 1 threat in the offense. Because of that, though, he’s going to be seeing Tre’Davious White in coverage quite a bit in Week 1. Don’t be completely scared off the matchup, as White isn’t a shadow corner, which means Crabtree will also see Vontae Davis, who hasn’t been good for years, though the Bills have put their faith in a rebound. This figures to be a low-scoring game, but there will likely be non-rushing touchdowns, and Crabtree should be atop the list of those likely to hit pay-dirt, as he’s scored at least eight touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. He’s a solid WR3 this week, though you should avoid in cash games, as the volume from the passing offense will likely be down.

John Brown: He’s the one we’ve been hearing about all offseason, as his connection with Joe Flacco has reportedly made defenders look silly on a regular basis. Brown has always had the talent to succeed in this league, but health has held him back the last two years. Knowing he’s healthy going into Week 1 is massive, though as mentioned in the Crabtree portion, the Ravens passing volume shouldn’t be very big in this game. Still, Brown can pop-off for a 70-yard touchdown at any point, making him a tournament option in DFS. The safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer makes it a bit difficult this week, but we know Flacco wants to push the ball downfield a bit more, as they had just 13 plays of 25-plus yards last year, the lowest in the league. Brown is worth a look as a tournament-flier, but it’s not the best matchup for him to explode. As long as he stays healthy, there will be other weeks to shoot for the stars.

Willie Snead: After failing to latch on with Drew Brees and Sean Payton in New Orleans, my expectations for Snead with Joe Flacco aren’t what you’d call great. It’s possible that they show chemistry on the field, but I’d like to see it before even debating putting Snead anywhere close to a lineup. The injury to Hayden Hurst opens up some targets over the middle of the field, but I’m not chasing targets with the slot receiver.

TEs
Charles Clay:
He’s what I’d consider the high-floor option of the Bills pass-catchers, though I don’t know if that’s a compliment. The Ravens were somewhat middle-of-the-pack last year, allowing six TE1 performances, though everyone remembers the Marcedes Lewis 62-yard, three-touchdown performance in London more than anything. Outside of that, the Ravens weren’t terrible at defending tight ends, as they held all but four tight ends to 43 yards or less. It’s not recommended that you start any of Peterman’s pass-catchers in his second NFL start, especially on the road against the Ravens, but if there was one you could say should post respectable totals, it’d be Clay. He’s a high-floor TE2, though his upside isn’t what you’d like out of a streamer.

Nick Boyle: We don’t even know if Boyle will play all the snaps needed to be the clear front-runner among the tight ends with Hayden Hurst out for several weeks, but my guess is that it won’t matter. He’s not the best receiver of the tight ends, but he was graded as their best run-blocking tight end last year. In this game, he’ll likely play the most snaps, but it’s not a situation you should target in DFS.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Total: 49.5
Line: NO by 9.5

QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick:
With Jameis Winston suspended for the first three games of 2018, Fitzpatrick is rewarded with a start against the Saints up-and-coming defense. You should also probably know that Fitzpatrick will be without starting left tackle Donovan Smith, who plays the most important position on the offensive line. With Smith on the field last year, Fitzpatrick completed 8-of-15 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Saints in relief of an injured Winston. The total implies that this will be a high-scoring game, but I’m not sure I’d chase the points from a streaming standpoint. These aren’t the same old Saints who were continually in shootouts. No, they actually ranked 14th in points per game allowed last year and added linebacker Demario Davis, cornerback Patrick Robinson, and pass-rusher Marcus Davenport. It’s possible that Fitzpatrick gets some garbage time numbers, but he’s not a preferred play.

Drew Brees: You’ll hear many say that Brees might be done, but count me as someone who doesn’t believe that. He had a record-setting completion percentage (72.0 percent), his highest yards per attempt since 2011 (8.1), and the lowest interception rate of his entire career (1.5 percent). He’s still good at football. With Mark Ingram out for the first quarter of the season, Brees could go back to his old elite days of top-three production. The Bucs rebuilt their defense this offseason, adding Jason Pierre-Paul, Vinny Curry, and Vita Vea to the defensive line alongside Gerald McCoy. They still lack the talent at cornerback to hang with Michael Thomas and company, which is where Brees is likely to attack them. Over the last four season openers, Brees has averaged 350.5 yards and 1.8 touchdowns. You don’t want to go over the top with exposure, however, as it’s still a divisional game, and a worse Bucs defense held Brees to lines of 263/2 and 245/1 last year. He’s a QB1 and will deliver, but with these teams knowing each other so well, it may be tough for Brees to post a 350/4-type game.

RBs
Peyton Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Ronald Jones:
We all know that Barber is the starter by now, right? He looked solid in the preseason, running with a no-nonsense style similar to what we’ve seen out of Frank Gore the last few years. Meanwhile, Jones was swallowed in the backfield, getting hit on average 0.5 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Bottom line, this offensive line won’t do them any favors. The Saints weren’t a run-defense to fear last year, as there were four different running backs who hit the 100-yard rushing mark, though each of them did total at least 17 carries, a number I don’t think we see Barber get to this week. Barber got the start against the Saints in Week 17 last year and totaled 71 yards on 17 carries with a touchdown, though their defense has gotten better this offseason. Barber should be considered a decent RB2 play, though Jones is going to be mixed-in throughout the game. I’d expect Jones to see 8-10 touches, which amount to RB5 territory, though he does have that big-play ability. The expected game-script doesn’t really favor either of them, though, so you can find better cash-game alternatives. Rodgers is just a guy, but likely the best pass-catching back on the roster, and it’s an area that’s exploitable against the Saints, as they allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs last year. If you’re desperate after injuries in a PPR league, Rodgers will likely provide a semi-decent floor for your flex spot.

Alvin Kamara, Mike Gillislee, and Boston Scott: It appeared as if Jonathan Williams was going to be the Mark Ingram replacement for the first four weeks, but he was cut last weekend. Sean Payton has said that he doesn’t want Kamara to have too many carries, as it would affect his efficiency, but the question then becomes, who gets the additional work? Kamara should at least hit the 12-carry mark in this game, which was his season-high in 2017. Crazy, right? Most don’t realize that he totaled just 120 carries last year and recorded more than 10 carries just three times. The Bucs had no answers for him in the passing-game last year, as he totaled exactly seven catches for 84 yards in each of the two games. Odd, I know. He also totaled three total touchdowns in those two games, and the improvements the Bucs made on their defensive line will affect the run-game more than they will the short screen-game that the Saints run so well. Kamara should be treated as an RB1 who should score at least once. He’s going to be heavily-owned in DFS, but for good reason. Gillislee or Scott are going to be considered the “sneaky play,” but the matchup against the new-and-improved Bucs front-seven is likely to be tougher than most realize. Because of that, they are only tournament options for DFS purposes, and just a punt-play in season-long leagues. If for whatever reason one of them is inactive, it does make the other a bit more tempting.

WRs
Mike Evans:
After a forgetful 2017 season, Evans will look to get back on track, though there’s more competition than ever for targets. In two games against the Saints last year, Evans totaled a combined 68 yards on 19 targets. If you recall, he was ejected from the game in Week 9, though it was after halftime where he was essentially being stymied by Marshon Lattimore for the entirety of the game. That’s exactly who will be shadowing Evans this week, so approach with caution. Lattimore was a top-10 cornerback in his rookie season and held opposing quarterbacks to just a 49.2 QB Rating while throwing in his direction. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, I won’t say it destroys Evans’ value, as he targeted Evans 10 times per game in the three starts he had last year, but the matchup here is not very good. Consider Evans a risky WR2 who’ll likely need to score to finish in that territory. He’ll be extremely low-owned in tournaments, but knowing he’s 6-foot-5 and has a quarterback who’s willing to target him in the red zone, he’s definitely in play.

DeSean Jackson: We don’t even know if Jackson will be on the field for 2WR sets at this point, as Chris Godwin has reportedly made his mark on this team. If that’s the case, Jackson is a punt-play most of the time, though this game is indoors and Mike Evans will receive top wide receiver treatment. Jackson will primarily see Ken Crawley in coverage, which is a better matchup than Evans, though it’s not great, especially when we don’t know if Jackson is an every-down player at this point in time. If Jameis Winston was playing in this game, I’d have more faith in the long-ball, but Ryan Fitzpatrick lacks a big arm. Jackson should be considered a boom/bust WR5 where there may be safer options on your waiver wire.

Chris Godwin: It’s no shock to see Godwin play well this preseason and potentially work his way into 2WR sets for the Bucs, but are there too many options for him to make an impact? Well, there wasn’t in Week 17 last year when they played the Saints and he posted 7/111/1 on 12 targets. There are a lot of fantasy players out there who don’t pay attention to Week 17, so it’s possible you missed Godwin’s emergence. He’s going to have a much tougher matchup this time around, as the Saints brought in Patrick Robinson, who was graded as PFF’s top slot cornerback last year. Not that Godwin would see him exclusively, but that’s who I’d expect him to see most often. Godwin may turn out to be a better fantasy option than Jackson, but it’d be wise to ensure he’s seeing enough playing time before trusting him as anything more than a WR5 in fantasy circles. If the Bucs announce him as a starter over DeSean Jackson, I’d get some exposure in tournaments.

Michael Thomas: If you didn’t acquire Thomas before this game, you aren’t going to get him after it. So many fantasy enthusiasts have underrated what Thomas has been able to accomplish over the first two years of his career, as his 80.6 percent rate of being a WR3 or better is better than every single wide receiver who has played since 2011. Antonio Brown is right behind him at 79.2 percent and Calvin Johnson at 77.3 percent. If he’d scored a few more touchdowns last year, Thomas would have had first-round consideration in this year’s drafts. He’ll match-up with Brent Grimes a majority of the time, a 5-foot-10 cornerback who is likely past his prime. In two matchups with the Bucs last year, Thomas posted 14 catches for 159 yards, though he didn’t score. With Mark Ingram out for the first four games and the Bucs improving their front-seven against the run, I’m expecting Thomas’ fortune to change in this game. There aren’t many wide receivers I’d rather have in my Week 1 lineup than Thomas, in both season-long and DFS.

Ted Ginn: It was a very up-and-down season for Ginn in 2017, as his first year with the Saints brought eight games of 53 or more yards, while there were six games with 33 yards or less. His target share did seem to come down towards the end of the season, and the addition of Cameron Meredith/Tre’Quan Smith is unlikely to help. Ginn will see Vernon Hargreaves in coverage the majority of time this week, and that’s been a good thing for wide receivers over the past few years, as Hargreaves has allowed 105 receptions for 1,533 yards on 167 targets in coverage during the two years. He’s got decent speed, so it’s not as if he should have too much trouble keeping up with the 33-year-old Ginn. In a game with a high over/under, it’s tempting to say he’s more than a boom/bust WR5, but that’s where I view him.

Cameron Meredith/Tre’Quan Smith: We don’t know what to expect out of Meredith, who really struggled throughout the preseason and played in the fourth preseason game when starters were rested. It’s possible that rookie Tre’Quan Smith starts over him, though both will be just hail-mary options until we have a clear picture. We have seen guys like Brandon Coleman, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson produce big games, though they were unpredictable, which is how you should approach Meredith/Smith.

TEs
O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate:
It appears as if Brate is still listed as the No. 1 tight end on the depth chart, but it seems to be a timeshare where both will play enough to be fantasy relevant. We do know that Brate saw just 4.0 targets per game with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and averaged just 26 yards per game, while Howard saw 3.7 targets per game and averaged 39.7 yards per game with Fitzgerald. In two games against the Saints last year, Brate saw nine targets and turned them into just four receptions for 46 yards and no touchdowns, but it wasn’t just him. Here’s a fun tidbit about the Saints defense last year: Outside of Rob Gronkowski, they didn’t allow a single tight end to score more than 11.6 PPR points all season. Because of that, it’s best to find another streaming option in Week 1.

Ben Watson: Welcome back to New Orleans, Mr. Watson. Most have already forgotten that Watson played with Drew Brees and the Saints just three years ago and totaled 825 yards with six touchdowns. Granted, he’s 37 years old now, but he also posted 522 yards and four touchdowns with a weak version of Joe Flacco last year. With rookie Tre’Quan Smith and Cameron Meredith battling out slot duties, it may take time for one of them to establish themselves as every-down players. Still, the Bucs were not a team who allowed much to tight ends last year, as there were just three of them who were able to muster up more than four catches and 42 yards. Watson is always going to be on the streaming radar in a potentially high-scoring affair, but this isn’t one where I’d be overweight on him in DFS.

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