For the second straight week, I nailed half of my ten bold predictions. Among them, I had Mark Ingram as an RB1 and Mohamed Sanu as a top 30 receiver while I ranked both Quincy Enunwa and Devin Funchess outside my top 40 wide receivers. That brings the success rate up to 38% on the season, well ahead of the preseason goal of 30%. I hope to push beyond 40% for the season this week, needing to hit on 5 out of 10. Remember, a bold prediction is something the general public would give less than a 10% shot of happening, but I put it at 25% or higher. Here we go!
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#10 Corey Davis will finish as a top 15 wide receiver this week
Davis had his second rough game in his last three weeks, but did you really expect anything different during matchups with Jalen Ramsey then Tre’Davious White? Yes, this week Davis draws Jimmy Smith and the stout Ravens’ defense, but Smith is not on the same level as the two superstars who slowed Davis down in past weeks. I’m expecting a return to double-digit targets and another big weekend.
Final Prediction: 8 receptions, 104 yards, 1 TD
#9 Nyheim Hines will be a top 20 running back this week
With the expected return of Marlon Mack, Hines is continuing to be disrespected as merely a fringe RB3 in standard leagues. While it is true that Mack will likely steal some touches, it seems certain that the Colts will ease him back in. That means Hines’ whopping 22 touches last week may regress to around 15, which should be plenty versus the Jets to post his third consecutive 70+ yard performance.
Final Prediction: 11 carries, 47 yards, 5 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD
#8 Cameron Brate will be a top 5 tight end this week
This is the absolute perfect storm if you are in need of a tight end this week. Jameis Winston takes over for Tampa and he sure does love passing to tight ends. O.J. Howard is likely going to miss the game, or at the very least end up limited, which means Brate will start. In the seven games Brate started last season, he was the 4th best tight end in fantasy football. As if that wasn’t enough, the Bucs draw Atlanta’s shoddy secondary.
Final Prediction: 6 receptions, 81 yards, 1 TD
#7 Cooper Kupp won’t be a top 36 wide receiver this week
Kupp is gearing up to play Sunday, bringing experts to rank him WR16 for Week 6 at Denver, but I’m not buying into that. Not only is he recovering from a concussion that caused him to miss most of this week’s practice and game prep, but it is going to snow during the game and the best slot cornerback in football, Chris Harris Jr. is going to be covering Kupp all day. It isn’t an ideal combination to say the least.
Final Prediction: 4 receptions, 46 yards
#6 Patrick Mahomes will end up outside the top 10 QBs for the third straight week
Through five weeks, Mahomes is 11th in the NFL in passing yards behind Blake Bortles, Joe Flacco and Derek Carr. He is also 22nd in completion percentage, tied with Case Keenum and behind players like Mitch Trubisky and Ryan Tannehill. Perhaps most importantly, he is 16th in pass attempts, so if you are expecting his blazing pace to continue then you are choosing to bet that his touchdown rate remains a historically unsustainable mark. I choose to trust regression to the mean and that his underlying numbers tell a truer picture. Even in a promising matchup against a team like the Patriots, I’m not buying Mahomes as a top fantasy QB this week.
Final Prediction: 24 for 34, 309 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 carries, 21 yards
#5 Jared Cook won’t end up as a top 12 tight end this week
Cook had a brilliant start to his season, but frankly, any number of tight ends would have done the same versus quite literally the four best possible matchups for a tight end. Last week was right back to the old Cook that we saw over the first nine years of his career and that is just what we ought to expect the remainder of the season. The matchup against Seattle certainly doesn’t help things either this weekend.
Final Prediction: 3 receptions, 25 yards
#4 Latavius Murray will be a top 24 running back this week
Yes, Dalvin Cook is suiting up, but they are apparently committed to playing him in just 25 snaps. That leaves 40+ once again this week, which should mean at least a dozen touches versus what may be the worst run defense in the NFL. This game is expected to get ugly in a hurry too so the game script could have the Vikings running more than usual while Cook heads to the sideline rather than risking the recovery.
Final Prediction: 13 carries, 95 yards, 2 TDs
#3 Blake Bortles will finish as a top 10 QB this week
I will die on this hill along with the Mahomes one. It isn’t to say Mahomes isn’t a brilliant QB, nor Bortles a competent one, but in Bortles’ case, the process adds up to another useful fantasy week. Leonard Fournette is still out and Dallas has been shutting down the run. When weighted for game script, Jacksonville has been the most pass-happy team in the NFL this season, believe it or not, and I expect that to continue this weekend in another game by Bortles that is ugly in real life, but successful for fantasy teams.
Final Prediction: 34 for 51, 348 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INT, 5 carries, 37 yards, 1 TD
#2 Amari Cooper will be a top 20 wide receiver this week
I can’t make up my mind as to whether it is hilarious or infuriating how the entire fantasy community turns against one of the most talented receivers in the NFL after he gets ONE target. Let’s not forget that the week before, Cooper posted his second game with 8+ receptions and 110+ yards in the past three games. His schedule (LAR, DEN, Xavier Rhodes, Denzel Ward, Casey Heyward) has been extraordinarily difficult and this week it finally eases up. As a result, I’m expecting the superstar talent to get superstar opportunities.
Final Prediction: 9 receptions, 126 yards, 1 TD
#1 Ronald Jones will end up a top 24 running back this week
As far as we have all been made aware, Peyton Barber is still technically the starting running back for Tampa, but it seems telling that they ran Jones out with Jameis Winston during the preseason then brought him in for the second half with Winston too. I believe the plan all along was to prepare him to enter as the starter following the bye and that we are about to find out Jones is the full-fledged starter. If it works out that way, he’s got a cupcake matchup against the Bucs to launch his career off with.
Final Prediction: 14 carries, 71 yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 6 yards
**Bonus Super Duper Bold Prediction**
Kapri Bibbs will finish as a top 30 running back this week
Chris Thompson is not likely to play Sunday and Adrian Peterson is a game-time decision as well. There is a chance Bibbs ends up with 20 touches, but I’d settle for a dozen with him settling in as the third-down back against a pass funnel Panthers’ defense. Bibbs has double-digit touches in just one career game and he managed 100 yards so don’t be surprised if he produces as a fantasy relevant asset this week.
Final Prediction: 7 carries, 30 yards, 5 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD
Thanks for reading and happy football season! 7 carries, 22 yards, 5 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD
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