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Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 8

Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 8

How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us with a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective.

They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged, and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines. Do not stop reading now because we will discuss three games in depth that offer the most upside from a DFS perspective.

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Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (-9, 56.5)

The Rams opened the week as nine-point favorites. They are the only undefeated team left in the NFL. Did you know that this is the most points the Packers have ever been given with Aaron Rodgers under center as their quarterback? The Packers have averaged 26.9 points per game following a bye week over their last 10 games and hold a 7-3 record. This matchup has the highest projected point total of Week 8. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers is my preferred DFS option. He is averaging 333 passing yards per game and the Rams defense is allowing the ninth-fewest passing yards per game (227.3). Rodgers has 12 touchdowns passes and only one interception through six games. He is experienced enough to find a way to exploit the Rams defense. There are two reasons I am fading Jared Goff in this matchup. The first reason is the Rams rushing attack. The team leads the NFL in rushing attempts (31.1) per game and rushing yards (153.1) per game. The second reason is the Packers pass defense which has only allowed 211.8 passing yards per game. I believe the Rams offense will provide Todd Gurley all of the touches he can handle. The Packers defense has allowed 116.5 rushing yards per game this season.

Running Backs
Hope is not a strategy when it comes to running back touches. The Packers are committed to a committee approach, but Gurley is averaging 24 touches per game. If you plan on investing a significant portion of your salary to the running back position, Gurley is the top option in Week 8.

Receivers
Target volume makes the world go round. Davante Adams is averaging 12 targets, 93 receiving yards, 123 Air Yards, and one touchdown per game. He has scored in five of six games this season and is matchup-proof as the No. 1 receiver in a Rodgers-led offense. The remaining targets will be split between Geronimo Allison, Randall Cobb, Jimmy Graham, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. None of these players are intriguing DFS options, but if you find yourself forced to start one of them my recommendation is Cobb based on his continuity with Rodgers.

The MCL sprain to Cooper Kupp frees up additional targets for the Rams receivers. Brandin Cooks has only averaged six targets per game while Robert Woods has averaged eight. Both are averaging 80 or more Air Yards per game and can be viewed as solid WR2 options.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 54)

Did you know that the Bengals are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game? The Buccaneers, on the other hand, are 5-2 against the spread in their seven games as an underdog. This matchup has the second-highest projected point total of Week 8. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston is my preferred play from a DFS perspective. He has averaged 380 passing yards per game over his last two and there is a high probability that Winston can deliver a QB1 performance for fantasy players given this matchup. The Bengals defense has allowed the third most passing yards per game this season while the Buccaneers offense only has one rushing touchdown from a running back this season.

The Buccaneers defense played much better in their first game without fired coordinator Mike Smith. The unit allowed a season-low 305 total yards to the Browns last week. Andy Dalton has displayed a tendency to implode from time to time and has cooled off considerably over the last three games averaging only 208 passing yards per game.

Receivers
A.J. Green, Mike Evans, and Tyler Boyd are the top receiving options in this matchup. Green is averaging 10 targets, 87 receiving yards, and 117 Air Yards per game. He continues to be heavily involved in the Bengals offense along with Boyd who is averaging eight targets and 69 receiving yards per game. Evans is in the midst of the most efficient season of his career from a perspective of receiving fantasy points over expectation. He is averaging nine targets, 99 receiving yards, and 130 Air Yards per game.

I also recommend DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and C.J. Uzomah given the high projected point total of this matchup. Jackson, Godwin, and Howard have averaged only 17 targets per game between them. The overall number of targets have been allocated pretty evenly between them. Uzomah is my favorite target out of this group of players. Our very own Mike Tagliere shared an interesting observation regarding him:

There’s been just two targets that have been directed Uzomah’s way that have hit the ground this year, as he’s boasting an 89.5 percent catch rate. The Bucs have officially allowed a top-12 tight end in every game they’ve played, including five 15-plus PPR point performances. That’s hard to do, even on purpose. The Bucs are starting rookie Jordan Whitehead at safety after Chris Conte was sent to injured reserve, which only adds to the appeal. The combination of Whitehead and Justin Evans has allowed 20-of-23 passing for 226 yards and two touchdowns in their direct coverage. Uzomah has been the No. 10 tight end in PPR leagues since Tyler Eifert got hurt, so there’s little reason to doubt him as a TE1 this week.

Running Backs
My preferred targets are Joe Mixon and Ronald Jones. Mixon has averaged 20 touches and 97.2 total yards per game this season. I also like Ronald Jones in the scenario that Peyton Barber is inactive. He set a season high last week with 29 snaps played and Jones scored his first career touchdown. The Bengals defense is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game (128.7). The only other team with a lower ranking in Adjusted Line Yards than the Buccaneers offensive line is the Giants. Jones has the athleticism to transcend offensive line play and could be very productive if given an opportunity to have anywhere from 15 to 20 touches in this matchup.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 53.5)

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have covered the spread in every game this season. I have written about Chiefs players in this column every week of the NFL season. The Broncos are 0-6 straight up and against the spread in their last six games against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are 8-0 in their last eight home games against their division rivals. Did you know these teams combined for 50 points in their last meeting? Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes continues to be worth the investment from a DFS perspective. He has averaged 317 passing yards and 3.14 touchdowns per game this season. Mahomes has scored 25 or more fantasy points in 71 percent of his games this season. The Chiefs defense is allowing a league-high 435.4 total yards per game. Mahomes and the offense have to stay aggressive in order to close out games.

Receivers
Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Emmanuel Sanders, and Demaryius Thomas are all excellent options in this matchup given how much salary you have available as you construct lineups.

Hill is averaging nine targets, 91 receiving yards, 125 Air Yards, and one touchdown per game. I would consider these averages the floor and not the ceiling considering the matchup and the history between these two teams. Hill remains an elite WR1, but Watkins is an intriguing WR3 with upside given that he will likely match up against cornerbacks Bradley Roby and Adam Jones. He is only averaging six targets per game and has had 100 receiving yards or more in one game this season. Kelce has scored 15 or more fantasy points in 57 percent of his games this season. The fantasy TE2 is averaging nine targets, 80 receiving yards, and 84 Air Yards per game. Kelce ranks No. 2 in all three of those statistical categories and has the potential to finish as the TE1 for the week in this matchup.

Emmanuel Sanders is the Broncos receiving option I would recommend using in DFS this week given the WR1 upside he possesses. He leads all Broncos receivers in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and Air Yards. The Chiefs defense is allowing 316.6 passing yards per game. There has been chatter about the possibility of Sanders and Thomas being traded as we approach the NFL trade deadline. I could envision a scenario in which Thomas is featured heavily as a means to inflate his trade value. If you are really short on funds and still trying to find a viable flex option I recommend Courtland Sutton. He only has 13 fewer targets than Thomas and has accumulated nearly the same amount of Air Yards.

Running Backs
Kareem Hunt and Phillip Lindsay are your best options in this matchup. Hunt’s usage recently as a receiver out of the backfield has been very encouraging. He accounted for 175 total yards and a touchdown back in Week 4 when the Chiefs played the Broncos. Hunt’s averaging 19 touches per game.

Lindsay has only played 36.8 percent of the offensive snaps this season for the Broncos but has touched the football or been targeted on 55 percent of them. He is only averaging 13 touches per game. Lindsay is a borderline RB1 in this matchup with the salary of an RB2.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!

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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.

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