What do you get when you use the 12th-most expensive quarterback with a pair of his wideouts whose combined salaries fall short of $11,000? You get a high-powered stack that’s also affordable and opens the door to many high-salary studs. A pair of wideouts facing each other fit the bill of high-salary studs and are included among the touted options below. They’re joined by a running back who’s fallen well short of his ceiling thus far this year, but has a matchup that could allow him to remind the gaming community of the type of special talent he is.
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Matthew Stafford (QB – DET): $5,700 vs. Packers
Kenny Golladay (WR – DET): $6,000 vs. Packers
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR – DET): $4,700 vs. Packers
The Lions are at home this week and host the Packers. The game has a fantasy-friendly over/under total of 51 points with the Packers favored by one, according to Pinnacle. It’s one of a few locations with high over/under totals this week, but let me reiterate that the contest is in Detroit.
Stafford’s played much better at home than on the road in his career (91.0 quarterback rating at home and 85.8 on the road) and in recent seasons (90.5 quarterback rating on the road and 96.6 at home in 2016, and 94.8 on the road and 103.7 at home in 2017). He’s also averaged significantly more adjusted yards per attempt at home than on the road, per Pro-Football-Reference. That should, in theory, benefit the duo of Golladay and Jones Jr.
Golden Tate has been the most productive pass catcher for Detroit and leads the way in all major receiving categories for them, but Golladay and Jones Jr. haven’t been slouches, as both members of the duo are better downfield options than Tate. Golladay is averaging 14.3 yards per reception this year and has averaged 15.8 yards per reception in 15 games in the NFL. While the sample size is small, he’s also been much better at home (17.07 yards per reception, four touchdowns, 10.76 yards per target, 3.6 receptions per game, and 61.9 receiving yards per game) than on the road (14.18 yards per reception, one touchdown, 9.18 yards per target, 3.1 receptions per game, and 44.6 receiving yards per game).
For Jones Jr.’s part, he’s averaged 15.5 yards per reception this year and 17.3 yards per reception in 35 games played for the Lions. The former Bengal is also Stafford’s favorite option in the red zone. According to Lineups, Jones Jr.’s seven red zone targets this season are tied for the sixth most among all wideouts, and they quickly lead the way for the Lions over Golladay’s three and Tate’s two. If you’re looking for further incentive to use this duo and ditch Tate, the underneath threat from the slot (Tate’s played 71.6% of his snaps from the slot, per PlayerProfiler) looks to have the toughest matchup in three-receiver sets, according to Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) matchups and player grades. PFF projects Tate to draw standout rookie Jaire Alexander in the slot.
Julio Jones (WR – ATL): $8,500 at Steelers
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – PIT): $7,500 vs. Falcons
The game over/under total of 58 points in Pittsburgh this week stands five points clear of the next highest game over/under total on the main slate this week. Both teams also project to contribute to the scoring with just a three-point spread favoring the Steelers. In short, all of the key pieces are going to see plenty of ownership. Having said that, Jones’ $8,500 salary is a whopping $2,700 more than white-hot rookie teammate Calvin Ridley’s $5,800 salary. Smith-Schuster’s $7,500 salary is identical to running back James Conner’s, and it’s no secret gamers love attacking the Falcons with running backs due to their reception-giving nature to the position.
Additionally, it’s a home game for the Steelers, and everyone knows Ben Roethlisberger’s huge home/road splits favor playing at home, and ergo, benefit the NFL’s best wide receiver, Antonio Brown, at home, too. Are you picking up what I’m putting down? I’m not saying Jones and Smith-Schuster will be low-owned players by any stretch, but their teammates could ultimately command more ownership than they do and will at least keep their ownership rates from skyrocketing.
Jones’ allergy to the end zone is well publicized at this point, but it certainly hasn’t prevented him from being a major fantasy asset. Atlanta’s No. 1 wideout leads the NFL with 125.5 receiving yards per game on 7.3 receptions per game. He’s also going to find paydirt at some point, even if it’s not from the red zone and comes via a long score. The Steelers have coughed up the third-most DraftKings points per game to receivers, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Pittsburgh has been hemorrhaging big receptions, and the 18 receptions of 20-plus yards they’ve surrendered this year are the sixth most, per NFL.com. They’ve been no great shakes against No. 1 receivers, either, ranking 17th defending them, according to FootballOutsiders (FO). No matter what vantage point you choose to view the matchup from, Jones is in an excellent position for a big game this week.
It’s premature to call Smith-Schuster Brown’s 1B at receiver for the Steelers, but the second-year pro has posted better numbers this year and is one of just eight players averaging more than 100 yards receiving per game (104.0, to be exact) this season. Smith-Schuster’s 7.8 receptions per game are tied for the fourth-most this year, and, like Jones, he has a dreamy matchup that should bear fruit. Atlanta has yielded the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to receivers this season, and FO ranks them 27th defending No. 2 receivers.
David Johnson (RB – ARI): $6,300 at 49ers
DJ’s fantasy production has been crushed by terrible playcalling and usage from offensive coordinator Mike McCoy as well as being tied to an offense that struggled to get anything going with Sam Bradford at quarterback for nearly the first three full games. Last week, though, the team scored a season-high 17 points with rookie Josh Rosen starting. Johnson also carried the ball a season-high 22 times while totaling a season-high 41 yards receiving on three receptions and season-best 71 yards rushing. In all, he turned his 25 touches into 112 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown run. Johnson’s avoided being a mega bust in season-long leagues thanks to scoring a touchdown in three of four games, but his lackluster production has resulted in a weekly slide in DraftKings salary from $8,800 in Week 1, to $8,200 in Week 2, $7,200 in Week 3, $6,600 in Week 4, and a new-low $6.300 this week.
If Johnson’s going to have a blowup game, this is a good spot for him to do so. The 49ers have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this year. However, the number that grabs my eye is the 35 receptions they’ve surrendered to backs this year. That’s the second most receptions allowed to the position this season. If McCoy can’t exploit that matchup this week with Johnson, he should be handed his pink slip when players and coaches exchange pleasantries after the game.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
