A couple of stacks kick things off for the touted plays below. The first is a teammate stack featuring a high-powered quarterback/wide receiver combo. The other is a game stack with a reliable — primarily — slot wideout paired with a grizzled vet running back from the opposition. The touted plays are rounded out by yet another slot receiver who happens to be facing his former team and a tight end whose production is on the rise who has a dreamy matchup.
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Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN): $6,400 at Jets
Adam Thielen (WR – MIN): $8,600 at Jets
Cousins has done a fantastic job of masking many of Minnesota’s flaws in his first year with the Vikings. The Vikings have holes on the offensive line, have struggled to generate production on the ground, and their defense has cratered since being arguably the most fearsome in the NFL last year. The result of those shortcomings is a ton of pressure being put on Cousins and the passing attack. He ranks fourth in pass attempts (260), but he’s not merely racking up numbers via volume. He’s completing passes at a 71.2% clip, good for third best among qualified quarterbacks, per Pro-Football-Reference. Furthermore, Cousins ranks tied for eighth in touchdown passes (12), seventh in passing yards per game (320.2), 10th in Quarterback Rating (102.7), ninth in QBR (69.2), and 11th in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (ANY/A) at 6.94 ANY/A. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Jets sixth defending the pass, but suspect that rating is somewhat heavily inflated by intercepting Matthew Stafford four times in the opener. Additionally, the Jets have faced a pretty pathetic collection of quarterbacks that includes Ryan Tannehill, Tyrod Taylor for nearly a half before Baker Mayfield gave them trouble, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Andrew Luck. Most of that group is below average, putting things mildly. Luck faced the Jets last week, and while he threw three interceptions, he also passed for 301 yards and four touchdowns. The Jets have surrendered the 11th most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks this year, according to Pro-Football-Reference, so this isn’t as bad of a matchup for Cousins at it might appear at first blush.
The obvious stack partner with Cousins is Thielen — no slight meant toward the supremely talented Stefon Diggs, but Thielen is playing at a previously unseen level. Thielen entered last week as the first wideout in the Super Bowl era to eclipse 100 yards receiving in the first five games of the year, and then he roasted the Cardinals for an 11-123-1 line on 15 targets. Thielen has reached double-digit targets in every game this year, has caught six or more passes in every game, and he has four touchdown grabs (he’s riding a three-game touchdown streak). Thielen’s matchup proof and I don’t really need to type anything to make a case for using him, but his matchup is drool-inducing this week. Pro Football Focus (PFF) shows Thielen drawing Parry Nickerson in the slot in three-receiver sets on their Matchup Tools page. There are 111 qualified cornerbacks graded at PFF this year, and Nickerson ranks 111th. It’s not an exaggeration to say Thielen deserves to be the highest rostered player this week, and there isn’t another player I’ll have on more rosters than Thielen.
Golden Tate (WR – DET): $6,400 at Dolphins
Frank Gore (RB – MIA): $3,800 vs. Lions
This is a two-man game stack that I don’t believe will be highly owned. Gore’s coming off of a solid showing, and Detroit’s defensive woes defending the run are no secret, so he won’t fly completely under the radar. Regardless, I think it will be low-ish owned, namely from the Tate side of things. Matthew Stafford is a different quarterback on the road compared to at home. For his career, he’s averaged 7.23 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) at home compared to 6.70 AY/A on the road. The gap has been even starker in recent seasons. In short, he rips off bigger passes at home than on the road, and his shorter throws on the road pair perfectly with Tate. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Marvin Jones averages 16.2 Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY), Kenny Golladay sits at 11.8 TAY, and Tate has a 6.7 TAY. Tate should be targeted often (he’s been targeted seen or more times in all five games this year) and give Miami trouble from the slot. Speaking of the slot, by running the majority of his routes from there, he should draw Miami’s lowest graded corner per PFF, rookie Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Gore isn’t the sexiest pick as an RB2 or flex, but he’s playing well and has a great matchup. Gore eclipsed 100 yards rushing for the first time this season with 101 yards rushing on 15 carries against the Bears last week. He’s bested 60 yards rushing in three of six games, and he’s averaging a robust 4.9 yards per carry. FO ranks the Lions 27th defending the run, and the Lions have been creamed for 5.98 yards per carry by running backs this year. Gore’s been out snapped by backfield mate Kenyan Drake in five of six games, and the season offensive snap percentages are 62% for Drake to 39% for Gore. However, Gore has 10 more carries than his younger backfield mate. Furthermore, Drake could potentially find himself in the doghouse after coughing up the ball on the one-yard line in overtime last week. The Dolphins went on to win despite the turnover, but it’s possible that Adam Gase might be a bit more reluctant to utilize Drake after that blunder. Regardless, if Gore is able to secure 12-18 carries against Detroit’s Charmin soft run defense, he’ll have a chance to provide a sweet ROI on his sub-$4,000 salary.
Willie Snead (WR – BAL): $4,000 vs. Saints
This isn’t a revenge narrative pick, however, if you subscribe to that line of thinking, feel free to consider that a cherry on top. The former Saint hasn’t had any blowup games this year, but he’s been a model of consistency with 49-60 yards receiving on 4-to-7 receptions in five of six games with just one 3-39-0 outlier in the mix. Last week, he set season highs in targets (10), receptions (seven), and receiving yards (60). If the Saints offense is able to impose its will on Baltimore’s sturdy defense, this game could turn into a shootout. The game’s over/under total of 50 points, according to Pinnacle, is the third highest on the slate. Baltimore’s a 2.5-point favorite, and their team over/under total is 25.5 points. As Baltimore’s slot man, Snead will avoid New Orleans top corner Marshon Lattimore and draw their worst corner, P.J. Williams. New Orleans has yielded the most DraftKings points per game to receivers this year. I’m loving Snead as a value pick this week with upside that belies his game totals thus far this year.
David Njoku (TE – CLE): $4,200 at Buccaneers
Picking Njoku feels like plucking low-hanging fruit, but he’s an obvious target — albeit a chalky target. The second-year tight end has set a new career-high for targets (12) and receptions (seven) for the third week in a row. Rephrasing that, in each of Baker Mayfield‘s three starts, he upped the bar for targets and receptions in a game. He’s bested 50 yards receiving with five or more receptions in all of Mayfield’s starts. There’s a legitimate chance he ups the bar in each of those categories while besting his career-high 74 yards receiving (December 3, 2017) against the Buccaneers this weekend. FO ranks the Buccaneers dead last defending the pass and 29th defending tight ends. Tampa Bay has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to tight ends this year, and they’re the only team surrendering more than 20 DK points per game to the position (21.1 to be exact). Njoku’s gonna eat.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
