Week 7 is the first time this year that four teams will be on bye, which will make our options more limited than they’ve been yet this season. All that means is that we have to dig even deeper. As long as we continue to follow the trends that the season is slowly revealing to us, the results will follow more often than not. A helpful tip I’ve acquired through my recent DFS experience is never to be afraid to use the same player twice. People playing DFS will often fade a player they had success within the previous week, falling victim to the myth that “lightning can’t strike twice.”
Instead, treat every week as a brand new slate, and play the players that you think will help you most without worrying if you’re using them too much. Following my own advice, I wrote about Austin Hooper in this article two weeks in a row. If you had the stomach to do the same thing, you were rewarded. Keep these tips in mind as we move into Week 7.
Last week’s results (point values are for full-point PPR):
QB: Jameis Winston – 30.9
RB: Alex Collins – 17.4
RB: Aaron Jones – 4.1
WR: Devin Funchess – 18.4
WR: Chester Rogers – 15.5
TE: Austin Hooper – 22.1
The solid results from Week 7 continue a hot streak that started in Week 6, with the exception of Jones. However, Jones had a touchdown overturned, getting ruled down on the one-yard line early in Monday night’s game, so he was very close to a more productive outing. Now let’s make it three good weeks of value plays in a row.
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Quarterback
Baker Mayfield (CLE): $5,800 at TB
We haven’t seen Mayfield explode yet since he became the starter, but he finally has the matchup to do it this week. Tampa Bay has been unbelievably bad against quarterbacks this season, giving up a minimum of 16.7 fantasy points to each opposing quarterback in their five contests. In that five-game span, the average FPPG to quarterbacks was 28.6.
Mitch Trubisky broke out en route to a six-touchdown performance against the Bucs in Week 4, and while I don’t expect six scores from Mayfield, I think it’s his turn for a breakout effort. The only area of the field in which Tampa Bay has been forgiving to running backs is around the goal line, so Mayfield will be needed to move the ball between the 20s. If he finishes shy of 300 yards passing this week, I will be shocked.
Running Backs
Carlos Hyde (CLE): $4,700 at TB
This Buccaneers defense is so bad that I believe Mayfield’s teammate will get in on the action too. Although Tampa Bay has not given up many rushing yards to opposing backs, they’ve given up tons of fantasy points to the position. What does that mean? Touchdowns, and lots of them. If you need to put the ball in the end zone, Hyde is your guy, as he’s scored five touchdowns in six games this season. To running backs that lead their backfield in touches, Tampa Bay has given up 23.5 FPPG.
Although I usually wouldn’t recommend a quarterback and running back from the same team due to conflicting game scripts, Tampa Bay allowed solid games to both Tevin Coleman and Matt Ryan last week, as well as Trubisky and Tarik Cohen in the game prior. To sum it up, there will be plenty of production to go around against this Bucs defense, and Hyde should receive enough volume to get his.
Phillip Lindsay (DEN): $4,600 at ARI
If there’s any defense that might be worse than Tampa Bay against fantasy running backs, it’s Arizona. Although figuring out which Denver running back is the better play can sometimes be frustrating, this might be a matchup that allows both to be productive. If you need to go cheap, Royce Freeman is only $3,800, but I’ll side with Lindsay because of the DraftKings PPR format. Lindsay has still been leading the Denver backfield in touches as of late, and backfield touch leaders have averaged 22.6 fantasy points per game this year against the Cardinals.
Lindsay’s tally of six catches last week is encouraging for his PPR value going forward. Although it’s unlikely, if Arizona blows out Denver in this game, Lindsay will still be involved. He’s worth paying up for over Freeman because he’s game script proof and comes with a higher floor.
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk (ARI): $4,600 vs. DEN
In what has been a disappointing season thus far for the Arizona offense, the blossoming connection between Josh Rosen and Kirk has been about the only bright spot. Kirk has finished with at least 77 receiving yards in three of the last four games, and now faces a very forgiving Broncos secondary, which feels weird to say. Denver has given up at least 13.1 PPR points to each top perimeter receiver they’ve faced this season, en route to a six-game average of 18.4 per game. While Larry Fitzgerald will be tied up with Chris Harris Jr. in the slot, Kirk should be able to find plenty of room elsewhere on the field. I think he comes with more upside than a lot of the guys priced ahead of him this week.
Marquise Goodwin (SF): $4,600 vs. LAR
With Aqib Talib being placed on injured reserve, and Marcus Peters struggling, the Rams defense has been rather forgiving through the air as of late. This is especially apparent in the case of primary perimeter receivers. Over the last four games, L.A. has given up an average of 20.4 PPR points per game to the combination of Mike Williams, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, and Demaryius Thomas. All of these guys are solid deep threats on the perimeter, which is the role Goodwin fills for the 49ers.
Going up against the potent offense of the Rams, San Francisco may be forced into a pass-heavy game script, which will open up more opportunities for Goodwin. His chemistry with C.J. Beathard on Monday night looked promising, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the speedster get behind the L.A. secondary for some more big plays in Week 7.
Tight End
C.J. Uzomah (CIN): $3,400 at KC
If you’re spending down at tight end this week, you should be plugging in Uzomah, plain and simple. I streamed Uzomah in a season-long league last week, and he came through with six catches for 54 yards. His matchup last week against Pittsburgh was excellent, but this week might be even better. Facing tight ends that have led their team or shared the lead in targets at the position (Jesse James tied with Vance McDonald in Week 2), Kansas City has given up an average of 15.1 PPR points over the last five weeks. The high point total in that span was 24.8, so there is a chance for a big ceiling this week with Uzomah.
Andy Dalton has been playing some of the best football of his career so far this season, and he should be able to feed the ball to Uzomah, who has been the clear number one tight end since Tyler Eifert went down. $3,400 is ridiculously cheap for a guy that has a clear path to top-10 tight end production this week.
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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.
