Week 7 was a strange one. Surprisingly close games, unexpected blowouts, and kicker misfires were the theme of the slate, but it made for captivating television in what can only be described as a bounce-back season for the NFL product as a whole. Will Week 8 bring a similar number of twists, turns, and shocking moments? In football, almost anything’s possible, but in fantasy football, we don’t like surprises, do we? If you’re like me, you like to go into the week with a logical plan. If you’re looking for an edge in FanDuel this week, read on.
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Quarterbacks
C.J. Beathard (SF): $7,300 @ ARI (+$900)
Beathard is coming off a frustrating performance against the Rams, in which he committed four turnovers while only throwing for 170 yards and a touchdown. This week, he faces an Arizona team that has surprisingly only allowed 15.0 FanDuel points per contest (fourth-fewest) to opposing quarterbacks. So why has he seen a $900 value bump?
Perhaps it’s because his opponents are coming off a horrendous beatdown at the hands of the Denver Broncos, but it likely has more to do with the fact that Beathard has, by and large, performed admirably in relief of Jimmy Garrapolo this season. While turnovers have certainly been an issue, he’d tossed multiple touchdowns in every start prior to this past Sunday, and has generally been an adequate fantasy performer. However, would I start him over similarly priced options like Baker Mayfield against the Steelers? Highly unlikely. This may be as expensive as Beathard gets this season, and there’s little value in playing him.
Andy Dalton (CIN): $7,800 vs. TB (-$700)
Fairly or unfairly, the “Andy Dalton struggles in primetime games” narrative lives on after a 45-10 thrashing at the hands of Kansas City on Sunday night. Dalton’s final stat line of 148 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception is without question his poorest showing of the season, and the veteran’s under-performance in a favorable match-up has certainly frustrated some people. As such, his value has plummeted by $700 in FanDuel this week.
But should you avoid the eighth-year pro altogether in Week 8? Not at all. Not when he’s playing a Tampa Bay squad that has gifted 27.3 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (most in the NFL), as well as 327 passing yards per contest (also most in the league). Dalton has been a solid fantasy passer this season, and he won’t have a better matchup all year. Recency bias makes starting him seem unpalatable, but he could pay off this week.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb (CLE): $6,400 @ PIT (+$1,600)
It really couldn’t be anyone else in this slot, could it? After the Browns sent Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville in an unexpected trade, Chubb stepped into the lead back role against the Bucs, and delivered in a big way, taking 18 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown for a healthy average of 4.4 yards per tote. In fact, Chubb played 66% of the Browns’ snaps, which is a higher number than Hyde ever accumulated over the first six weeks. It’s clear the rookie is locked into a big-time role and has the talent to make a huge impact over the rest of the season.
Chubb is averaging 7.4 yards per carry on the season, but he could be in for tough sledding in Week 8 when he faces a Steelers team that is only permitting 15.2 FanDuel points to opposing runners (second-fewest). While he’s definitely in an enviable role, the matchup is no cakewalk, which is the only thing keeping his $1,600 value hike from climbing higher. Chubb is a fantastic talent, but this is nowhere near an ideal situation for any young runner, as the Steelers are much more effectively attacked through the air and he has yet to catch a pass in 2018.
Christian McCaffrey (CAR): $7,300 vs. BAL (-$700)
McCaffrey is a hugely talented player and one of the most versatile backs in the league, but the Panthers need to get him the ball more often. In 2018, he’s remained an integral part of the team’s passing attack with 40 receptions for 289 yards and a score in only six games, but he’s been largely ignored in the running game, having received 10 or fewer carries in all but two contests. This is in spite of the fact that he’s averaging 4.8 yards a pop, which is an enormous increase over the 3.7 he averaged as a rookie.
However, none of this is likely why his price has plummeted in Week 8. No, that’s because he literally has the worst matchup imaginable against a Ravens defense that is allowing the fewest FanDuel points per contest to runners in the league. Furthermore, they’ve permitted the fifth-fewest receptions and second-fewest receiving yards to enemy tailbacks. This defense is just that talented. McCaffrey is going to beast on many occasions over the course of 2018, but it would be a shock to see it happen this week.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton (DEN): $5,300 @ KC (+$500)
Sutton has produced 14 catches for 246 yards and two touchdowns as the Broncos’ number three receiver in 2018, and the rookie looks like he has a bright NFL future. In fact, he’s played 327 snaps on the season, is averaging 17.6 yards per catch, and has found the end zone in two of his last three games. While his target totals remain modest, he looks like a player on the cusp of a breakout. And that breakout could very well come in Week 8.
Indeed, the Broncos face a Kansas City franchise that has permitted 316.6 passing yards per game, and prior to Sunday night’s victory over the Bengals, had been a shootout waiting to happen. This will likely be a pass-heavy game script as the Broncos could be trailing early in this one, and Sutton could be peppered with targets. An improvement from the six-catch, 51-yard performance he produced when these teams met in Week 4 could very well be in order.
Marvin Jones (DET): $6,000 vs. SEA (-$400)
There’s no question that Jones appears to have become the odd man out in the Lions passing game over the past few weeks. After seeing six or more targets in all of the team’s first four games, he’s now received just four in back to back contests and has only accumulated 37 yards and a touchdown over that span. Currently, he sits third on the team in targets and yards, and fourth on the team in receptions, while his fantasy value has largely been propped up by his three touchdown receptions. While he leads the team in snaps played, he hasn’t been consistently involved in the passing attack enough to warrant serious fantasy consideration in recent weeks.
A date with the Seattle Seahawks isn’t particularly inviting either and as such, his value has dropped by $400 in Week 8. There is no questioning Jones’ talent after his 2017 breakout campaign, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in the Lions passing attack, and there isn’t enough volume to sustain all of them. There was a time when Matthew Stafford was always near the top of the heap in passing yardage, but he’s attempted 30 or fewer passes in each of his last three contests. The Lions are a solid football team, but with the emergence of Kerryon Johnson and the running game, they are no longer the aerial fantasy bonanza of days past.
Tight Ends
Michael Roberts (DET): $5,200 vs. SEA (+$1,200)
On Sunday, Lions tight end Michael Roberts made only his third appearance of the 2018 NFL season. In Week 1, he didn’t receive a target against the Jets. In Week 2, he caught his only target for a 15-yard touchdown, before ultimately suffering a knee injury the following week in practice that sidelined him for three games. In Week 7, he was back in the lineup and made a colossal impact, catching all three of his targets for 48 yards and two touchdowns. On the year, he’s now secured all four of his looks for 63 yards and three scores. Not bad at all.
It goes without saying that Roberts isn’t going to sustain his 100% catch rate and 75% touchdown rate, but it looks like the sophomore has definitely earned more work going forward. As such, he’s seen an incredible $1,200 value bump heading into a Week 8 showdown with the Seahawks. However, it isn’t going to be a walk in the park as the ‘Hawks are only allowing 6.5 FanDuel points per contest to tight ends (third-fewest). I like Roberts a lot, but his increase appears to be a case of market over-correction. While he could be an impact player going forward, I need to see more before I’m comfortable playing him, even at a position as barren as tight end.
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,300 vs. DEN (-$700)
A very strong argument can be made that Kelce is the best tight end in the game at this very moment. Through the first seven weeks, he ranks second in targets (60), second in receptions (38), second in yards (563), and tied for third in touchdowns (3) among all players at the position. On Sunday night, he snared all five of his targets for 95 yards against the Bengals, and he’s now cleared 75 receiving yards in five of seven contests this season. Indeed, his one-catch, six-yard performance in the opener seems like a long time ago.
In Week 8, however, Kelce’s seen a staggering $700 value decrease in FanDuel. This, however, is really just a matter of semantics as veteran remains the most expensive tight end that isn’t playing a London game on the slate. While his opponents, the Denver Broncos, have only allowed the 13th-most (tied) FanDuel points per game to tight ends, Kelce has their number, as the All-Pro has accumulated 33 catches, 472 yards, and three touchdowns over his last four games against his AFC West rivals. Kelce will never be a value play, but there isn’t a more reliable option available week in and week out. If you want to invest heavily in a tight end, take the $700 saving and enjoy.
David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.
