FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 5 (Full Slate)
We’re already heading into Week 5, and if one thing has become apparent thus far it’s the crazy scoring the NFL is trending towards. Eight of the 15 games on this slate have expected totals greater than 50 points. To put things in perspective, in past seasons there would usually be between 1-3 games with a total over 50 points, and this week more than half the games are expected to eclipse the 50-point mark. That means the bar for finishing in the money in both cash games and GPPs has been raised.
We’re looking at the Thursday NFL slate on FanDuel in this article. Every game from Thursday to Monday is on the slate we’re playing, starting tomorrow with IND @ NE. One important thing to note when playing the all-week slate is how the Thursday and Monday games affect ownership. Often when fantasy players choose to play the all-week slate, it’s because they like a player or players in the Thursday or Monday game. That can make Thursday or Monday players a little more chalky than they usually would be if the game occurred on a Sunday. As a result, sometimes we can get more favorable ownership on Sunday chalk.
Matt Ryan(ATL @ PIT): $8,300
Matt Ryan has been rolling for the Falcons lately, averaging 33.7 FanDuel points over the last three games. Those performances have come against poor opposing defenses, and Ryan draws another soft matchup this week against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed the fourth most passing yards in the league at 304.7 points per game. They are sandwiched between Ryan’s last two opponents, New Orleans and Cincinnati. ATL @ PIT has the highest expected total of any game this week with a 57.5 O/U. This game should make defensive coordinators feel ill, and we want a piece of it on the full slate.
Melvin Gordon (LAC vs. OAK): $8,700
Oakland was shredded for 208 yards on the ground last week by Cleveland, a team that was only averaging 86.3 yards rushing per game going into that game. The Raiders are allowing the second most yards per carry at 5.6 and the third most yards per carry in the NFL. Gordon averages 19.5 touches per game and has averaged 6.13 yards per carry over his last two games. He should get plenty of work in a game with a 53.5 O/U that pegs the Chargers as -5.5 point favorites.
David Johnson (ARI @ SF): $7,700
The Arizona offense begins and ends with David Johnson, and Arizona may actually be in a competitive game this week. They are only +4.5 underdogs in San Francisco, and their key to victory will be feeding David Johnson. San Francisco has struggled against the run this season as well. They have allowed the ninth most FanDuel points to opposing running backs this season. San Francisco even allowed LeGarrette Blount to average 4.8 yards per carry against them. There isn’t a more damning indictment than that.
Julio Jones (ATL @ PIT): $8,800
Jones pairs well with Matt Ryan and should have no problem taking advantage of Pittsburgh’s secondary. Their best cornerback, former All-Pro Joe Haden, is a shell of his former self and in no way intimidating to Julio Jones. Other than Haden Pittsburgh is relying on a mix of failed draft picks in their secondary. Jones currently leads the NFL in receiving yards and will probably widen the gap between himself and whoever is in second after this game.
Mohamed Sanu (ATL @ PIT): $5,600
Calvin Ridley is getting a lot of attention in Atlanta as their number two receiver, but Sanu out-snapped Ridley last week 55-38 and out-targeted him 9-6. Ridley has been relying on unsustainable touchdown production. Rather than buy into that we should go for an often overlooked piece of Atlanta’s offense. Sanu is about as cheap as it gets for a playable wide receiver and allows us to deep stack Atlanta’s offense in a favorable situation this week.
Dede Westbrook (JAX @ KC): $5,900
Kansas City has allowed the second most passing yards in the league, and yet Jacksonville’s top receiver is under $6,000. Westbrook dominated targets and catches for Jacksonville last week against the Jets. He was targeted 13 times by Blake Bortles while the next highest player received only five targets. Jacksonville also proved they could match top offenses in Week 2 against New England, where they put up 31 points and Bortles passed for 376 yards. This might be Jacksonville’s biggest test yet defensively, and their offense can pick up some of the slack.
Vance McDonald (PIT vs. ATL): $4,600
McDonald has overtaken Jesse James as Pittsburgh’s top tight end and his price hasn’t budged. McDonald has been targeted exactly five times in the three games he’s played, which is plenty of volume in a likely shootout. At this price, we’re mostly hoping for a touchdown, but McDonald has put up 174 yards in his last two games. He has a solid floor for a near-minimum priced tight end.
T.J. Yeldon (JAX @ KC): $6,500
With Leonard Fournette out for the next few weeks, Yeldon becomes Jacksonville’s primary ballcarrier. He gets an easy matchup this week against Kansas City. The Chiefs have allowed 5.7 yards per carry through four games this year, the highest number in the league. Yeldon has no one to compete with for touches and should have no problem taking advantage of a weak defense.
Tennessee Titans (TEN @ BUF): $3,900
Tennessee is allowing only 16.75 points per game this season, and get their easiest matchup to date against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have the worst ranked passing offense in the league and the number 24 rushing attack. Their only offensive weapon, LeSean McCoy, has been dealing with injuries and was held to eight touches last week. The Bills are averaging 12.5 points per game and have just two passing touchdowns all season. This game is also expected to be the lowest scoring game of the week with a 39.5 O/U, and Tennessee is a -3.5 road favorite.