Professional athletes often talk about being in the zone, a mental state when the game slows down and hitting a ball or making a shot becomes a foregone conclusion. Players who get locked in the zone often feel like they can do no wrong and they feel in total command of the game and their opponent.
Unfortunately, the opposite mental state can also occur, leaving a player helpless and void of any confidence. A player stuck in a negative mental block will struggle to do even the most simple tasks of their respective position, like a second baseman who gets the yips when trying to make a throw to first or a basketball player who cannot hit the broad side of the barn.
The 80% of Yahoo owners of Mason Crosby and millions of Packers and Lions fans witnessed a player going through a tragic mental block on Sunday, as Crosby tied an NFL record with four missed field goals. The 12-year veteran and owner of a career field goal percentage of 80% not only missed four field goals, but he missed an extra point as well, which forced head coach Mike McCarthy to go for two for the majority of the game.
On a positive note, Graham Gano kicked a 63-yard game winning field goal as time expired to give the Panthers a win over the visiting Giants. Gano is only one of five field goal kickers in the history of the NFL to kick a 63-yard field goal and only the second to do it as a game-winning kick as time expired.
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Week 5 Stud Performances from widely-available kickers
Graham Gano (CAR) vs. NY Giants: 11% ownership on Yahoo
In addition to kicking a 63-yard field goal to give the Panthers the victory, Gano made four total field goals and three extra points to finish as the top kicker of the week. The 11% of Yahoo owners who started Gano were blessed with 19 fantasy points and a matchup-winning performance from an unlikely source.
Ryan Succop (TEN) vs. Buffalo: 25% ownership on Yahoo
The Jekyll and Hyde defense of the Buffalo Bills proved to be the dominant incarnation on Sunday after holding the Titans to zero touchdowns. Succop was the beneficiary of the strong defensive performance by the Bills by making all four of his field goal attempts.
Aldrick Rosas (NYG) vs. Carolina: 7% ownership on Yahoo
Succop was not the only kicker putting up big numbers at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, as Aldrick Rosas made all three field goal attempts, including a 50-yarder, to finish with 14 fantasy points. Rosas now has three games of over 10 fantasy points, which is the same as Will Lutz, Stephen Gostkowski, and Matt Bryant combined.
Week 5 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Matt Bryant (ATL) vs. Pittsburgh: 99% ownership on Yahoo
Bryant posted six fantasy points against the Steelers in what had the makings of a high-scoring game between two elite offenses and two subpar defenses. The Atlanta offense failed to move the ball effectively, and a negative game script killed Bryant’s value in the second half. The otherwise stud kicker now has eight points or less in four of his five games.
Mason Crosby (GB) vs. Detroit: 80% ownership on Yahoo
It will take a ton of faith for fantasy owners to fire up Crosby against the 49ers next week, assuming that the Packers don’t opt to move on from the veteran kicker. But if he regains his confidence and finds his form going forward, Crosby could be a nice add later in the season due to the fact that the Packers are nowhere near as efficient in the red zone than in years past.
Kicker Rankings
Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
1 | 5 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at TEN | PK | 42 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 42 | 68F, 8 mph Wind |
2 | 3 | Harrison Butker | KC | at NE | 3 | 58 | 14 | 18 | 4 | 36 | 50F, Light Wind |
3 | 1 | Stephen Gostkowski | NE | vs. KC | -3 | 58 | 23 | 9 | 19 | 51 | 50F, Light Wind |
4 | 4 | Dan Bailey | MIN | vs. ARI | -11 | 43 | 24 | 8 | 13 | 45 | Dome |
5 | 6 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at CIN | -3 | 54.5 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 39 | 52F, Light Rain |
6 | 7 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at NYG | -3 | 45 | 3 | 29 | 18 | 50 | 73F, Light Rain |
7 | 8 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. BUF | -10 | 45 | 29 | 3 | 3 | 35 | Dome |
8 | 17 | Josh Lambo | JAC | at DAL | -3 | 41.5 | 7 | 25 | 8 | 40 | Dome |
9 | 2 | Matt Bryant | ATL | vs. TB | -3 | 57 | 32 | 32 | 12 | 76 | Dome |
10 | 9 | Mason Crosby | GB | vs. SF | -10 | 46.5 | 22 | 10 | 9 | 41 | |
11 | 15 | Caleb Sturgis | LAC | at CLE | PK | 46 | 11 | 21 | 6 | 38 | 53F, Light Wind |
12 | 10 | Randy Bullock | CIN | vs. PIT | 3 | 54.5 | 13 | 19 | 16 | 48 | Dome |
13 | 11 | Chandler Catanzaro | TB | at ATL | 3 | 57 | 30 | 2 | 21 | 53 | Dome |
14 | 27 | Matt McCrane | OAK | vs. SEA | 3 | 47 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 37 | 54F, 8 MPH Wind |
15 | 12 | Cody Parkey | CHI | at MIA | -3 | 44 | 8 | 24 | 30 | 62 | 85F, 11 mph Wind |
16 | 13 | Cairo Santos | LAR | at DEN | -7 | 52.5 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 33 | 25F, Light Snow, 5 mph Wind |
17 | 14 | Graham Gano | CAR | at WAS | PK | 45.5 | 27 | 5 | 27 | 59 | 61F, 5 MPH Wind |
18 | 29 | Brett Maher | DAL | vs. JAC | 4 | 41.5 | 2 | 30 | 25 | 57 | Dome |
19 | 24 | Aldrick Rosas | NYG | vs. PHI | 3 | 45 | 6 | 26 | 22 | 54 | 73F, Light Rain |
20 | 16 | Adam Vinatieri | IND | at NYJ | 3 | 45.5 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 51 | 60F, Light Wind |
21 | 18 | Sebastian Janikowski | SEA | at OAK | -3 | 47 | 12 | 20 | 24 | 56 | 54F, 8 MPH Wind |
22 | 19 | Ryan Succop | TEN | vs. BAL | PK | 42 | 9 | 23 | 26 | 58 | 68F, 8 mph Wind |
23 | 20 | Dustin Hopkins | WAS | vs. CAR | PK | 45.5 | 31 | 1 | 29 | 61 | 61F, 5 MPH Wind |
24 | 25 | Robbie Gould | SF | at GB | 10 | 46.5 | 21 | 11 | 14 | 46 | |
25 | 22 | Brandon McManus | DEN | vs. LAR | 7 | 52.5 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 43 | 25F, Light Snow, 5 mph Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank second in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 6.
Josh Lambo (JAC): @ Dallas
Although the Blake Bortles-led offense is painful to watch at times, the Jags rank eighth in total yards on offense yet rank 25th in red zone efficiency. This week Lambo should take advantage of those factors against a Dallas team that ranks seventh in red-zone efficiency. Just like Fairbairn last week, Lambo should put up big numbers indoors against the Cowboys.
Caleb Sturgis (LAC): @ Cleveland
The fantasy experts who comprise our ECR ranking have finally come around on Fairbairn, so I am forced to look a little deeper this week for my second kicker who will beat their ranking and finish as a K1. Although Caleb Sturgis has missed four extra points in five games, he has been surprisingly consistent with at least two field goals in three of his five matchups. The Chargers face a difficult challenge this week against a Browns defense that allows the 11th fewest red-zone touchdowns. Look for Sturgis to post another game with at least two field goals, with the upside of finishing with double-digit points.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Dan Bailey (MIN): @ Philly
ECR Rank: 19 / My Rank: 10
Week 3 Finish: Kicker #9
Although he did miss two field goals, including a short chip shot, Bailey made three field goals and two extra points to finish as a K1 on Sunday. The purpose of the K Score is to predict opportunity for a player, and five field goal attempts and two extra points are precisely what owners are looking for from their kicker.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU): vs. DAL
ECR Rank: 15 / My Rank: 7
Week 3 Finish: Kicker #5
Bill O’Brien’s questionable red zone play calls and a strong performance by the Dallas defense resulted in another double-digit performance for Fairbairn. Fairbairn now has at least 12 fantasy points in his last three games and should be owned and started in at least 75% of fantasy leagues. Be sure to pick him up and start him this week at home against Buffalo.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Brett Maher (DAL) vs. Jacksonville: 4% ownership on Yahoo
Maher has been a dominant fantasy kicker over the past two weeks with seven field goals and 27 fantasy points. The Cowboy offense will struggle to move the ball against the Jags, but Blake Bortles will more than likely give Dallas a few short fields for Maher to take advantage of with three field goals.
Others to Consider
- Caleb Sturgis (LAC): 12% ownership on Yahoo
- Josh Lambo (JAC): 28% ownership on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.