Welcome to another edition of Players to Fade on FanDuel for Week 8. It’s another week with four teams on BYE and a London game which means another 10-game main slate awaits. DFS is harder than ever these days, and we need every edge we can get. It’s necessary to not only narrow it down to the best plays but also be aware of who to avoid on a week-to-week basis. I’ll do my best each week to identify some of the players that could be lineup landmines for us on FanDuel whether overpriced or in a bad spot. Roster construction is a bit challenging this week so let’s get to it!
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Quarterback
Mitch Trubisky (CHI): $7,700 vs. NYJ
Trubisky benefited from an easy schedule to begin the year and put up some solid fantasy performances, paying off the big risk with big rewards in DFS. Looking closer, he’s been the worst rated starting QB per ProFootballFocus this season. I think some people will look at how many fantasy points he’s scored and they’ll go for the savings over a guy like Aaron Rodgers. This is a bad move. I’d much rather pay up for the known commodity of Rodgers in a game with a high implied point total. The Bears quicker-paced offense this season is encouraging for their play makers, but I think the Jets pass defense is better than people give them credit for and things may be tough through the air for Trubisky and company. This game has the makings of a lower-scoring affair and I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams failed to reach their implied point totals. I’m staying away completely.
Running Back
Todd Gurley (LAR): $11,000 vs. GB
Before I get skewered, this is simply a tournament tactic. I cannot put up an argument against using Gurley in cash and filling in your roster with value plays. But in GPPs, I think there is an edge to be had here. By leveraging the field, you still have a good chance at a big day in DFS if one or two of your guys underperform. If one of your studs doesn’t pay off a massive price tag, you’re almost drawing dead every time unless you nailed the rest of your lineup. To give some either-or comparisons and using the example of playing Kareem Hunt over Gurley in tourneys…that gives you $2,900 of salary for your FanDuel lineup. That’s the difference between fitting Chester Rogers or Antonio Brown this week or moving up from Josh Rosen to Patrick Mahomes. It’s possible that Gurley goes off, but he needs to get you 48 points or more to really be worth $11,000 outside of cash games.
Chris Carson (SEA): $6,300 @ DET
At the beginning of the week, the Lions run defense was arguably the worst in the NFL. By many metrics, they were at least a bottom-eight unit against the run and the worst in others. We would also assume Carson is a good play because of this, especially with how conservative and slow the Seahawks offense runs. They use a heavy ground game and this sets up to be a great play in DFS. After the Lions traded for Damon Harrison on Wednesday Morning, it’s hard to not incorporate one of the NFL’s elite run-stuffers as a factor into this game script. He’s the NFL leader in run stuffs this year per NFL NextGen stats and he replaces Sylvester Williams who was seemingly allergic to stopping the run. This is a major upgrade for Detroit and a downgrade for Seattle’s backs. I say that because we can’t really trust the Seahawks much with their RB rotations the last couple of years.
Wide Receiver
Sterling Shepard (NYG): $6,500 vs. WAS
I’m going to focus on this mid-$6,000 price range because I know a lot of lineups will have Todd Gurley. Those who do sink 18% of their salary cap into Gurley will have to get some savings, but the trio of WRs I’m going to mention is not one I’d be comfortable playing in Week 8. I don’t like Shepard for a few reasons. First, the Giants are basically in full-on tank mode now. That’s not inspiring in the least! Second, Shepard has had some cake matchups in six the first seven weeks and the Washington secondary will likely be more difficult to exploit. Last, the mess that is New York’s NFC affiliate starts with the guy getting Shepard the ball, QB where Eli Manning. Manning has been a shell of his former self and his accuracy has been dreadful in spite of cleaner pockets over the last four games. He’s just off, and he’s off fairly often. He looks washed. I’m fading the Giants pass game.
Devin Funchess (CAR): $6,400 vs. BAL
Just below Shepard in the player pool is Funchess. He gets an incredibly difficult matchup this week against a Baltimore secondary that has been outstanding in 2018. Year to date, the Ravens have allowed the fewest yards per pass in the NFL, something that’s been consistent of the top-three unit all season. The Panthers are highly likely to use a run-heavy approach to slow down the Ravens fast-paced offense, thus limiting the opportunities for Funchess. The grabs he does get should be on lower ADOT looks and that’s not going to vault anyone to the top of the leaderboard in DFS. I also think this game has some sneaky potential for the Panthers to smash the Ravens on the ground and if that happens, it further reduces his upside.
DeSean Jackson (TB): $6,400 @ CIN
I said it last week and I’ll say it again, Jackson is the fourth option on this team at best. With Winston under center, these two simply do not have any chemistry dating back to last season. Jackson, a major boom/bust type, needs to score a long touchdown every week to pay off his salary. Last week, he failed to do so but did get in the box on a random run. This week, with a pair of talented WRs in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and a pair of good TE options in Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, I don’t like using him in any format. I know this game is likely to be high-scoring, that was the case in all the Bucs games this year as each game has gone over the expected point total. Even still, I can’t pay $6,400 for a risky play like DJAX on the road when Winston clearly favors and is more efficient throwing to the tight ends.
Tight End
Trey Burton (CHI): $6,400 vs NYJ
Last week I featured Burton in this column and we saw him produce big time after getting an outlier week in targets with 11. I’m going back there again this week to stay with a negative correlation with Trubisky. Previous to the last week, he was averaging between four and five targets per game. The matchups against the Jets isn’t one to target. They’re excellent against the TE and have been a top-five red zone unit in the NFL. This is another game I expect to stay under the implied point total of 45 points with the Jets likely to play slow on offense. The Bears are not a team I expect to score a lot and they may have to settle for field goals more than they like this week. If Burton doesn’t score this week, it’s highly improbable that he ends up giving you enough value at his $6,400 salary. Same goes for equally-priced Jimmy Graham who is currently hobbled with a bum knee this week.
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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.
