Skip to main content

QB Tiers & Rankings: Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

QB Tiers & Rankings: Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

I loooooove fantasy football in October.

With small sample sizes playing mind games and so much new information, setting lineups and making add/drops during the first few weeks feels like fumbling around blindfolded in a pitch-black room.

After four weeks, things start to normalize. You can throw out what you were thinking was going to happen before the season and start to trust what you’ve seen. You can put a Josh Allen 30-point outburst in context. You know not to stream Case Keenum under any circumstances. To the extent you’re ever going to feel like you know what’s going on, you feel like you know what’s going on.

Last week was a disappointing one for the primer in several respects. But the calendar has turned, and I love fantasy football in October. Let’s get to it.

Get free start/sit and waiver wire advice for your fantasy team partner-arrow

Every-Week Starters

Patrick Mahomes (KC): vs. Jacksonville
Matt Ryan (ATL): @ Pittsburgh
Cam Newton (CAR): vs. New York Giants
Jared Goff (LAR): @ Seattle
Drew Brees (NO): vs. Washington
Deshaun Watson (HOU): vs. Dallas
Aaron Rodgers (GB): @ Detroit

Quarterbacks facing Jacksonville this season have scored 7.2 (QB27), 16.4 (QB17), 9.1 (QB25), and 11.5 (QB24) fantasy points. But you don’t need me to tell you that you’re starting Patrick Mahomes anyway.

Jared Goff: every-week starter. Is that an overreaction to one primetime game? Maybe, but the scheme is so good and he’s playing so well that I can’t fathom benching him. Certainly not this week. Seattle’s pass defense has been strong to start the year, and CenturyLink Stadium has been a tough place to play even when the Seahawks were bad. It doesn’t matter…with the Legion of Boom officially going down in a blaze of middle fingers, this is a defense you want to face.

Matt Ryan also jumps into the elite tier, on pace for more completions, yards, and touchdowns than his 2016 MVP season. The emergence of Calvin Ridley as a true second threat (sorry Mo Sanu) has been a boon. They’ve also figured out the red zone-scoring on 67% of their visits to the red zone (7th best), including eight red zone touchdowns (3rd most). But perhaps the most important thing is the Falcons defense, which is allowing 2.8 points per drive (most in the NFL) and just lost another starter. The last three Falcons games have seen an average of 69.3 total points scored, which is both nice and exactly what you want for fantasy. There’s another one coming this week as this game has an over/under of 57, highest of the week.

We don’t think of Washington as a bad match-up, and maybe they’re not. They’ve only faced Sam Bradford, Andrew Luck, and a hobbled Aaron Rodgers. Even so, they’re allowing a mere 11.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (just behind Jacksonville) and rank 3rd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. Drew Brees is still a must-start, but you might get a performance closer to last week’s meh against the Giants.

QB1s

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): vs. Atlanta
Philip Rivers (LAC): vs. Oakland
Matthew Stafford (DET): vs. Green Bay
Carson Wentz (PHI): vs. Minnesota
Kirk Cousins (MIN): @ Philadelphia
Andy Dalton (CIN): vs. Miami
Russell Wilson (SEA): vs. Los Angeles Rams

I don’t know if it’s because the defense stinks, Le’Veon Bell’s holdout, or just playing to their strengths, but the Steelers are airing it out like crazy this year. They rank 3rd in pass attempts and 3rd last in rush attempts, with Ben Roethlisberger on pace for 744 (!) attempts. That should normalize eventually. But not this week. See Ryan, Matt, above.

Every week I get to Philip Rivers and think “oh, that’s a nice match-up.” Then I look at his performance and think “oh, that’s a nice fantasy day.” So here we are…the QB8 on the season gets the Raiders’ bottom-10 defense in a home game, to the extent that soccer stadium counts as “home.” Nice match-up. Should have a nice day.

I know Kirk Cousins just lit up the Rams, and I know the Eagles just got lit up by Marcus Mariota. But that Vikings offensive line has to make you nervous in this game. The Eagles have a dominant front seven, leading the league in QB hits and top 10 in sacks. Their secondary is beatable, but only if you have time to make it happen. I don’t know if Cousins will have time. I wouldn’t sit Cousins given his weapons and how he’s playing, but there’s dud potential.

Russell Wilson can blow up at any time. It’s a home game. Doug Baldwin‘s return should help. They’re going to have to pass to keep up in this one. The Rams defense is more “really good” than it is “makes grown men cry.” But I can’t sit here and pretend Wilson isn’t the QB23 four weeks into the season. I would consider any of the streamers over him. And I’d sit there for a looooong time looking at Flacco too.

Streamers

Alex Smith (WAS): @ New Orleans
Blake Bortles (JAC): @ Kansas City
Derek Carr (OAK): @ Los Angeles Chargers

Alex Smith is back to his dink-and-dunk ways, but still has a solid 19.6, 13.1, and 17.8 fantasy points in his first three games. Fresh off a bye and entering the Coors Field of football in a game with a 52.5 over/under, this is a really strong spot for Smith. I detailed last week how the Saints’ D was last in just about everything. They looked better last week against the Giants, but then again, Eli Manning tends to have that effect. The Saints are especially vulnerable in the middle of the field, which is where all of Washington’s weapons happen to be. Smith has both a high floor and a high ceiling this week.

Kansas City can make any quarterback look good, as long as that quarterback is not Case Keenum. I’m happy to report that, based on my extensive research, Blake Bortles is not Case Keenum. That makes him a start against a Chiefs defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and has given up the 2nd most passing yards this season. Bortles is always a risk-he bombed at home against Tennessee just two weeks ago-but the sneaky rushing yards and cast of big-play receivers also gives him a pretty good ceiling. Especially when Leonard Fournette sits, as he will this week, and the offense opens up.

Derek Carr has been legitimately good this season. He’s top five in completion percentage and yards, and has shown improvement each week as he settles into a new offense. I’m so sad for all the Jon Gruden jokes I don’t get to make. This week he faces a Chargers defense that still hasn’t arrived for 2018, allowing 30 points per game (5th most). Granted two of those games came against the Rams and Chiefs, but the bottom line is if you give up nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns to C.J. Beathard, you are not a defense to avoid. Carr is a relatively big road underdog (-5), which is a red flag, but I just think Vegas is wrong here.

QB2s

Joe Flacco (BAL): @ Cleveland
Marcus Mariota (TEN): @ Buffalo
Baker Mayfield (CLE): vs. Baltimore
Dak Prescott (DAL): @ Houston
Ryan Tannehill (MIA): @ Cincinnati
Eli Manning (NYG): @ Carolina
Case Keenum (DEN): @ New York Jets
C.J. Beathard (SF): vs. Arizona
Josh Rosen (AZ): @ San Francisco

Joe Flacco has two elite skills: his big arm and his getting drafted by a team with a great defense. Given the first, it was weird to see him turn into a check-down artist the past couple seasons. He ranked 23rd in attempts traveling 20+ yards last season and just 37th in air yards per attempt. This year has been a totally different story, as Flacco ranks 3rd and 7th, respectively. Thank you, John Brown. This week he gets the Browns, who were gashed for 45 points in last week’s overtime loss to Oakland. I really hate to question a man’s integrity, but I’m beginning to think maybe Gregg Williams was lying when he said he turned down seven jobs to be there.

I don’t know what to make of Marcus Mariota. He’s been lousy since the preseason and could barely throw the ball the last few weeks. Then out of nowhere (from everyone’s bench…), Mariota goes off for 344 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles. Hopefully, things are starting to click in Tennessee, as that’s an offense I was really optimistic about heading into the season. Even if it’s not a true breakout, at least he’s rushing. 17 carries over the past two games will cover a lot of warts. If he keeps that up, with Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor emerging, this could still be a fun season in Tennessee.

Eli Manning was in a great streaming spot last week at home against a Saints defense that ranked last in everything. It went exactly how you would have expected it to go.

By Sunday morning it was obvious Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to get pulled mid-game. I bring that up because there may be a similar situation quietly brewing in Denver. Bold call: I think we see Chad Kelly in this game. Case Keenum has been awful all year and both John Elway and Vance Joseph have to be getting desperate. Overthrowing Demaryius Thomas on what would have been a game-winning touchdown Monday night was the second-to-last straw. Now on a short week, on the road, against an underrated pass defense (2nd according to DVOA), I think we see that final straw.

I thought Josh Rosen looked pretty good in his debut, but it translated to a mere 15 completions for 180 yards and a touchdown (12.5 fantasy points) in a home loss to Seattle. I leave the benchwarmers tier for guys I wouldn’t start in a superflex league, and Rosen just barely clears that hurdle this week. Ditto for C.J. Beathard. Don’t watch a minute of this game.

Benchwarmers

Sam Darnold (NYJ): vs. Broncos
Josh Allen (BUF): vs. Tennessee

I kind of think the Jets win big and Sam Darnold has a good week. But I’m supposed to do things like “provide evidence” and “use logical reasoning” when I make a recommendation, and frankly it’s hard to take those things and make a case for Darnold right now. His yards per attempt have gone down every game and he leads only Josh Allen in completion percentage. Involving Robby Anderson downfield a little more, as we saw last week, might help. That Week 1 outburst against Detroit feels like a long time ago.

I mentioned last week that Josh Allen was going to have some pretty dramatic ups and downs. I think we learned last week that good pass rush=down week. The Titans rank 3rd in QB hits and 7th in both sacks and tackles for loss, so…

Find and analyze trades for your team with My Playbook partner-arrow


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Scott Cedar is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his archive and follow him @scedar015.

More Articles

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

fp-headshot by Anthony Corrente | 2 min read
Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 3 min read
3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

fp-headshot by Mike Fanelli | 2 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

5 min read

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

Next Up - FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

Next Article