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RB Snap Count Analysis: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

RB Snap Count Analysis: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

The NFL’s running-back landscape refuses to sit still.

Before reaching Week 7’s Sunday slate, the news mill ran wild. The Cardinals fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, inspiring hope amongst David Johnson investors across the land. The Raiders placed Marshawn Lynch on the injured reserve with a knee injury. In the biggest development of them all, Cleveland traded Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville. This jeopardized the long-term value of three top options (Hyde, T.J. Yeldon, and Leonard Fournette) while instantly vaulting Nick Chubb into a must-add, must-start stud.

Lynch, Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Devonta Freeman already have plenty of company on the shelf, but several rushers (Sony Michel, LeSean McCoy, Royce Freeman, Bilal Powell, Matt Breida) also got injured during the week. Let’s rummage through the chaos and examine the aftermath.

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Atlanta Falcons

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Tevin Coleman 37 11 50 2 2 32 1
Ito Smith 28 7 16 2 2 29 0

 
With Freeman landing on the injured reserve, all eyes were glued to a potential committee with major fantasy ramifications. The Ito Smith hype intensified when he scored a touchdown in his third straight game while playing 31 snaps to Tevin Coleman’s 38 in Week 6. That excitement, however, took a major hit on Monday night. Smith’s snap rate only dwindled from 46.3 to 43.1 percent, but waiver-wire speculators wanted a move in the other direction. More importantly, he failed to reach the end zone and didn’t draw a red-zone touch for the first time since Week 1. Cover up the touchdowns, and would you want to roster someone with 118 rushing yards on 38 carries this season? Coleman, on the other hand, recorded 82 yards and a touchdown in a 23-20 win over the Giants. Although not producing to the heights anticipated without Freeman, he’s averaging 13.9 touches per game. Per NextGen Stats, he has also accelerated to 15 miles per hour on the highest percentage (39.0) of rushes. He’s the top Falcons back to own by a comfortable margin. While Coleman makes a compelling RB2 in most matchups, Smith is still a touchdown-dependent depth piece.

Cleveland Browns

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Nick Chubb 45 18 80 2 0 0 1
Duke Johnson 35 1 -4 4 4 23 0

 
With Hyde out of the picture, there was hope for Cleveland giving Duke Johnson a heftier role similar to past usage. No Dice. In Cleveland’s fourth overtime game of the season — all of them have been decided within the extra period’s final two minutes — the pass-catching back mustered just four catches on as many targets. Chubb, meanwhile, slid smoothly into Hyde’s spot by totaling 80 yards and a touchdown on 18 handoffs. After frequently drawing three touches a game as an oft-ignored understudy, he drew three red-zone rushes in his first real shot. Hyde averaged 3.4 yards per carry before the trade, but a massive workload (19 carries per game) nevertheless made him the standard RB12. Tougher to tackle with a bigger burst, his rookie replacement could feasibly crack the top 10. For now, he’s ranked as the rest-of-season RB13 who could soon jump two spots depending on LeVeon Bell’s reporting status and Sony Michel’s MCL sprain. Once again failing to capitalize on a prolonged contest, Johnson remains no more than deep-league depth. Hyde should receive a featured role in London, but Fournette could return after Jacksonville’s Week 9 bye.

Denver Broncos

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Phillip Lindsay 35 14 90 1 1 6 1
Royce Freeman 18 13 37 0 0 0 1
Devontae Booker 6 0 0 1 1 -1 0

 
Following four consecutive losses, Denver finally received an opportunity to extend the ground game for four quarters. That meant less of Devontae Booker, who logged just six snaps after seeing at least 20 in each loss, and more of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. An early lead created the perfect game script against Arizona’s NFL-worst rushing defense, and each rookie pounced with a touchdown. Lindsay, however, produced 59 more yards in just two more touches. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per run, and Freeman is day-to-day with an ankle injury. That could mean a full share of the rushing responsibilities against the Chiefs, who have ceded 5.2 yards per carry. Yet don’t expect the Broncos to jump to an early lead against a 6-1 squad who opened as 10-point favorites at home. Even settling for a line akin to Week 4’s meeting with the AFC West rival (12 carries, 69 yards, one TD) makes him a strong RB2. If Kansas City dominates Denver, Booker could pay off as a desperation PPR play in deeper leagues.

San Francisco 49ers

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Raheem Mostert 22 7 59 4 4 19 0
Alfred Morris 20 9 25 1 0 0 0
Matt Breida 5 5 15 0 0 0 0

 
First, he broke the fantasy Twitterverse by taking Alfred Morris’s spot. Then he came for Breida. A week after factoring into San Francisco’s backfield equation, Raheem Mostert found himself at the right place at the right time when Breida aggravated his ankle injury. He attempted to return, but fumbled on his first touch and ultimately played just five snaps in a 39-10 loss to the Rams. The 23-year-old could reportedly take some time off, which is the sensible move with a Week 9 bye looming. Yet it’d cost him an opportunity to face the Cardinals, whom the 49ers posted 147 combined rushing yards against in Week 5. If Breida sits, Mostert is an instantly intriguing flex play after compiling 165 yards in his past two games. But don’t forget about Morris, who returned from Week 6’s unexpected vanishment to handle one of nine touches inside the red zone. He could work as a deeper flex option akin to Freeman against Arizona if he also finds the red zone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Snaps Carries Rush YDs Targets Receptions Rec. YDs TDs
Peyton Barber 35 11 30 2 0 0 0
Jacquizz Rodgers 30 3 8 1 1 11 0
Ronald Jones 29 6 13 1 1 15 1

 
For the first time this season, a Tampa Bay running back ran for a touchdown. It wasn’t Peyton Barber, who had received at least one red-zone rush in every game except for Week 7’s overtime win over Cleveland. (He had a touchdown eradicated by a penalty.) Ronald Jones, who previously procured two red-zone touches, turned one of four opportunities into a two-yard score. By the way, neither back led the team in rushing. In fact, Barber, Ronald Jones, and Jacquizz Rodgers registered fewer rushing yards combined (51) than Jameis Winston (55). Barber now has one week as a top-25 running back, and it was against a Falcons defense that has ushered an opponent into the top 10 every week. Per Eduardo Encina of the Tampa Bay Times, Dirk Koetter said Barber “got banged up a couple different times in the game.” While that still gives Jones an opportunity to etch out a meatier role, how excited can anyone get for someone averaging 2.6 yards per carry with a long run of nine yards? Maybe you can confidently play one of them when they face the Falcons again in Week 17, but Barber and Jones are otherwise just bye-week fillers.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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