If it feels like something is missing from this week’s column, it’s because the two behemoths of fantasy football — the Chiefs and Rams — don’t play until Monday night. If you’re a contender in your league, you probably have at least one player from one of these two teams, and there’s a good chance that your matchup probably won’t be decided until they play.
The game’s 63 over/under is projected to be the largest in NFL history, so we should be in store for quite a fantasy extravaganza tonight. But we already know these teams are good — there isn’t much to learn outside of whether Sammy Watkins plays or which Ram receiver/tight end steps up to replace Cooper Kupp’s production. So while we eagerly await Monday’s game, let’s open up our text books to Week 11, and go over 10 things we learned in Sunday’s action.
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Gus Edwards is suddenly the best back to own in Baltimore
Many folks (myself included) had Alex Collins pegged for a big game against Cincinnati’s soft defensive front on Sunday. Collins did find the end zone, so he wasn’t a total bust for fantasy owners, but it was rookie Gus Edwards who stole the show. Edwards ended up out-carrying Collins 17-to-seven, and out-gaining him 115-to-18. Coach John Harbaugh clearly liked Edwards’ bruising, north-south rushing style, and fed him relentlessly as the Ravens pursued a ball-control offense in rookie Lamar Jackson’s first start.
Edwards surely benefited from Jackson’s own rushing threat, as well as a weak opponent. But both of those conditions will again be in place next week, and perhaps beyond. Joe Flacco is not expected to return for a cake Week 12 matchup with the Raiders, meaning Jackson will be under center for at least one more game, and Baltimore does not face another strong run defense the rest of the season.
It remains to be seen if Edwards will be Baltimore’s clear lead back going forward, but he’s certainly the favorite for the job at the moment, which makes him a must-own player. At this late stage of the season, he’s worth a high waiver claim or a sizable FAAB bid. I would still want to see this more than once before I even consider dropping Collins, though.
Lamar Jackson is a workhorse RB — who’s playing QB
Speaking of Jackson, he joined Edwards as 100-yard rushers against Cincinnati, carrying the ball 27 times for 117 yards. He threw for just 150 yards.
Mitchell Trubisky was the only other quarterback with more than five rushing attempts in Week 11 (he had 10), which just goes to show that Jackson is a truly unique fantasy QB. Trubisky and Blake Bortles have made a habit of producing deceptively strong fantasy numbers thanks to rushing production, but they are still primarily passers, whereas Jackson is a true run-first, pass-second QB.
It seems impossible to believe that Jackson will continue to run the ball 27 times per game, but he may not have to in order to approach low-end QB1 value. Jackson accounted for zero touchdowns in Week 11, and yet he still finished as a top-12 QB on Sunday. I would still be hesitant to use him against strong defenses, but that won’t be a concern in Week 12 when the Ravens face off with Oakland. With Flacco expected to miss the game, Jackson will be a legitimate QB1 candidate for that contest.
The rise of the rookie WRs has begun
Rookie wide receivers are traditionally known for struggling in their first taste of the NFL, but a handful of rookie wideouts look ready to make an impact down the stretch, if Week 11 was any indication. D.J. Moore, Tre’Quan Smith, Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk, and Keke Coutee all finished among the top-15 WRs in receiving yardage on Sunday, with Moore and Smith each posting 150+ yards and a score. All of these WRs should be universally owned at this point, but the jury is out on which — if any — are every-week fantasy starters.
If you are in search of plausible upside, you should probably start with Smith, who caught 10 passes on Sunday and looks to be emerging as the number two receiver in one of the league’s best passing attacks. But this was the first week where Smith caught more than three balls, and the second receiver in Sean Payton’s offense is rarely a reliable fantasy asset (players like Ted Ginn, Devery Henderson and Donte’ Stallworth come to mind). Smith proved that he’s capable of week-winning performances, but he may not consistently deliver each week. The same could be said of Moore, except that he plays in a less high-octane passing game.
In terms of reliable week-to-week production, the best of the group could still be Sutton, who has yet to have a true breakout performance but does have at least 57 yards or a touchdown in five straight games. He’s locked in as the number two receiver in a decent passing offense, which makes him a preferable option to Kirk, who plays the same role in a worse offense. Coutee, meanwhile, had nine targets on Sunday but is unlikely to see that kind of volume going forward with DeAndre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas around.
Here we go again with the Tampa Bay QBs
The bad version of Ryan Fitzpatrick showed up again against the Giants, and with Bucs coach Dirk Koetter’s seat getting hotter by the minute, it’s hardly surprising that Koetter pulled the plug on Fitzpatrick and went back to Jameis Winston. And lo and behold, Winston stepped in and gave life to the offense, just as Fitzpatrick had done when Winston was benched in Week 8.
This situation is one where fantasy diverges greatly from reality. Fitzpatrick and Winston have both been bad in real life — they’ve combined to throw 23 interceptions, seven more than any other team — but anytime one of them manages to start and finish a game, they tend to return QB1 value in fantasy leagues.
Tampa’s next three games are all at home against exploitable pass defenses (SF, CAR, NO), so whoever gets the starting nod — most likely Winston — is going to be an appealing streamer by default. You’ll just have to live with the risk that your starting QB may get benched before the end of the game.
Kerryon Johnson is week-to-week with a knee injury
Johnson is considered “week-to-week” due to a sprained knee he suffered in Sunday’s game. With the Lions set to play their annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday, he is just about certain to miss at least one game.
Kerryon looked as explosive as ever before departing in the third quarter, handling 17 touches for 97 yards and a touchdown. His owners will just have to hold out hope that he’s ready to step back in as a borderline RB1 in time for the fantasy playoffs.
The Lions’ backfield should be relatively simple with Johnson sidelined. LeGarrette Blount will handle the early-down, between-the-tackles work, while Theo Riddick will be the pass-catching back. Blount won’t be a particularly appealing fantasy option, even in non-PPR formats — he’ll likely be a worse version of Frank Gore in an absolute best-case scenario. Riddick, on the other hand, quickly becomes an interesting flex option in all formats, and could even flirt with RB2 value in PPR leagues for however long Kerryon and Marvin Jones are both out.
The path to targets has been cleared for the great Kenny Golladay
While Riddick should benefit from the absence of Kerryon and Jones, the biggest impact player left standing in Detroit is clearly Golladay.
Golladay’s talent was never in question, but his target share certainly was. Golladay saw a grand total of seven targets over Weeks 7, 8, and 9, while Jones and Golden Tate were locked in as the Lions’ top two receivers, but Golladay now has a whopping 27 targets over the last two games, piling up two scores and nearly 200 receiving yards over that span.
Golladay is a bonafide WR1 for however long Jones is out, which could be a while based on reports that Jones is getting a second opinion on his ailing knee. Even if Jones is able to make a quick recovery, Golladay has shown more than enough to be a confident every-week fantasy starter over the rest of the season.
The Colts’ offense is humming and Andrew Luck is a top-five QB
Luck is currently seventh among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, ahead of big names such as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson. And unlike most of the quarterbacks he trails (Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Mitchell Trubisky), Luck’s calling card is consistency.
Luck has now thrown at least three touchdown passes in a remarkable seven straight games. Not even Patrick Mahomes can say he’s done that. What’s even more impressive is that Luck accomplished much of that with Eric Ebron and a ragtag bunch of receivers. Now that he has a healthy Jack Doyle and T.Y Hilton — who reminded us what he’s capable of by torching the Titans — Luck is going to be one of the most confident fantasy starts at QB for the rest of the season.
Marcus Mariota’s bad elbow could spell doom for the entire Tennessee offense
The Titans’ season has been a rollercoaster ride with more dips than lifts, at least from a fantasy perspective, and most of the team’s offensive struggles stemmed from the elbow injury that Mariota suffered in Week 1. That injury caused the entire Tennessee offense to go in the toilet for nearly two months, and now it appears that Mariota is dealing with the same injury again.
If Mariota misses more time — or perhaps worse, attempts to play through the injury and again fails miserably — it could be the death knell for the fantasy value of the Titans’ skill position players. Dion Lewis and Corey Davis, in particular, looked well on their way to being every-week fantasy starters down the stretch, while Jonnu Smith was starting to get interesting as a tight end streamer. Even Derrick Henry had some touchdown-or-bust flex appeal in favorable matchups. But if the Titans are forced to rely on Blaine Gabbert or a severely-limited Mariota, no Tennessee player will be useable in fantasy leagues.
Washington is officially the most injury-ravaged offense in the league
When rookie RB Derrius Guice tore his ACL in August, it was a crushing blow for Washington fans, but it turns out that was just the beginning. Chris Thompson has missed nearly half the season with injured ribs. Jamison Crowder has been out since Week 5 with an ankle sprain. Not one, not two, but three of the team’s starting offensive lineman have been lost to injury.
And now, Alex Smith. Smith broke his leg against the Texans 33 years to the day of Joe Theismann’s similar season-ending injury, which eerily also occurred at the 40-yard line in a game that Washington lost 23-21.
Smith’s injury is probably more significant in terms of leadership than on-field performance, as Smith was struggling statistically and Washington was already running one of the most conservative offenses in the league. The drop-off to Colt McCoy should not be a steep one, provided the team can overcome the emotional blow.
Still, from a fantasy perspective, this should only make things harder for Adrian Peterson, who continues to be more healthy and effective than his teammates even at his advancing age but should now see even more stacked boxes. If there was a “winner” from Smith’s injury fantasy-wise, it is probably Jordan Reed, who was lightly-targeted by Smith for most of the season but saw 11 targets on Sunday and caught a touchdown on McCoy’s first throw.
Big Ben struggled on the road again — but still pulled out a “W”
Sunday’s game provided another reminder than Roethlisberger struggles in 1 pm ET road contests — and that the Jaguars’ defense still has some life left in it. But Big Ben turned it on late to end up with a solid fantasy performance and a victory for the Steelers.
Roethlisberger played about as badly as he possibly could in the first half (53 passing yards, two interceptions), and aside from the time and location of the game, the return of Jags’ CB A.J. Bouye may have had something to do with it. But everything changed when Roethlisberger found Antonio Brown wide open down the field for a 78-yard touchdown late in the third quarter. From that point forward, Big Ben found his groove and ultimately led the Steelers to a come-from-behind victory.
Ultimately, this game justifies the decision to downgrade our expectations for the Pittsburgh passing game for 1 pm road contests, particularly against tough opponents. But it also demonstrates why it is still rarely the right decision to bench any of the top players in this explosive offense.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
