Week 10 proved to be a funky week all around, with the Patriots getting smashed by the Titans, the Browns putting together a convincing win over the Falcons, and both the Steelers and Saints racking up over 50 points each. Oh, and even the Bills won! But as always, let us sift through all the rubble and take a look at the surprises, stats, and trends entering Week 11, and how they might affect your fantasy football teams moving forward.
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The Chiefs-Rams game has an over/under above 60 in Week 11
As of this writing, the game total for the highly anticipated Monday night showdown between the Chiefs and Rams sits between 62.0 and 63.5 points, so you can bet there will be plenty of fantasy fireworks. We saw Vegas’ total reach 60 in Week 9 between the Rams and Saints, and the two offensive juggernauts did not disappoint, combining for a whopping 80 points.
While that obviously puts high expectations on all the usual stars for both squads, it’s yet another reason to take a shot on Josh Reynolds if you need a flex play this week. With Cooper Kupp out for the season due to a torn ACL, Reynolds is the next man up, playing over 80% of the snaps in Weeks 7 and 8 when Kupp was also sidelined. The results in those games were a mixed bag for Reynolds, seeing just one target in Week 7, but following that up with a strong Week 8, catching three-of-five targets for 42 yards and two scores.
Excluding an injury-shortened Week 6 where he saw just one target, Kupp averaged 7.9 targets over his other seven games, and while Reynolds can’t be expected to soak up all that volume, the opportunity is there for a solid role in this high-flying offense. Reynolds’ Week 8 performance showed the kind of upside that role can bring, and even as a fourth option behind Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Todd Gurley, the touchdown-scoring potential doesn’t get much better than this week’s projected shootout. While Reynolds showed up on plenty of waiver wire articles this week, he wasn’t at the top of most of them, so he could still be available in your league.
The Buffalo Bills score 41 points in Week 10, more than their last four games combined
The New York Jets’ defense was considered one of the top streaming options in Week 10 against the lowly Buffalo Bills, a team we’ve attacked ruthlessly with defenses all season in both season-long fantasy and DFS. The Jets were ranked first overall by FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings, and even with the change to Matt Barkley at quarterback, the Bills were a road underdog with the week’s lowest implied total. Even if it didn’t turn out to be a total bloodbath under Barkley, you had to feel pretty safe rolling out the Jets.
Of course, as we all know now, it was a bloodbath all right — in favor of the Bills. Barkley and the Bills inexplicably stomped the Jets 41-10, and that meant not only was the Jets’ defense a complete disaster, but they actually submitted negative points in most formats. Even if you had concerns that Barkley would put up a better fight than Nathan Peterman or Derek Anderson (not saying much), or that the Jets’ sputtering offense would leave the defense out on the field too much, negative points weren’t expected in the range of outcomes.
What does this mean moving forward? Well, we shouldn’t overreact to one game, and Buffalo still figures to be an offense we can attack most weeks, but it does give pause to the idea I presented last week of stashing any of the defenses playing them during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16). Along with these Jets, the Lions and Patriots also took shellackings in Week 10, with each team surrendering 34 points apiece. Buffalo also mercifully released Peterman, so sadly there’s no chance we get him to kick around anymore.
The Jets are difficult to trust after that pitiful performance, and the Lions were a poor defense to begin with, but the Patriots are still worth monitoring for Week 16. Their obvious flaw is a putrid pass rush, ranking 30th in sacks (15), but they’ll also be a huge home favorite, so game script should favor them with Buffalo needing to pass to keep up, leading to potential sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns. Although they aren’t likely to see Anderson again as they did against the Bills in Week 6, New England only allowed six points in that game with three sacks, two turnovers, and a defensive touchdown.
As for the next game, Josh Allen should be back in the saddle for Week 12 following Buffalo’s bye week, and it will be interesting to see how he and the Bills fare against the Jaguars, a defense that has underwhelmed this season, but still ranks in the top 10 in terms of DVOA. If you’ve been thinking about cutting ties with Jacksonville, it might be worth holding onto them for one more week to give them this last shot.
Amari Cooper has 18 targets through two games with Dallas
If you have Cooper on your team, his move to Dallas has played out about as well as you could have hoped, with Cooper seeing target totals of eight and 10 over his first two games — good for nearly a 29% target market share — while playing at least 78% of the snaps. It’s a stupidly small sample size, but dare we say he’s showing some…consistency? On an offense where Cooper will see little competition from his fellow pass catchers, it looks like he will be force-fed targets on a weekly basis, theoretically providing him a safer floor than we saw on Oakland.
As noted last week, this Cowboys offense limits his ceiling, as the yardage has been modest so far (58 and 75 yards), but he’s emerging as a trustworthy fantasy asset again. Cooper draws a plus matchup against the Falcons in Week 11, a team that ranks 30th in passing yards allowed (294.4), 29th in points allowed (28.2), and 29th in passing DVOA.
Aaron Jones garners season-highs in touches (18), snap rate (74%) and rushing yards (145) in Week 10
The Packers have been strangely slow to fully hand over the reins to Jones in this backfield, but after Week 10’s performance, it looks like Jones has finally vanquished Jamaal Williams for running back supremacy. Jones out-touched Williams 18-3 with 15 carries and three receptions (five targets) against Miami, while seeing a season-high 74% of the snaps compared to just 25% for Williams. Jones rewarded Green Bay with 145 yards rushing and two touchdowns, along with 27 yards receiving. While Jones was clearly ahead of Williams in recent weeks, this performance will hopefully phase out Williams nearly entirely.
Aaron Rodgers is pushing for Jones to get more opportunities, and perhaps the 20-plus touches we’ve yearned for could be on the horizon. The Seahawks aren’t a pushover matchup on Thursday, but the Packers are only slight road underdogs, so the volume should be there in a game that ought to remain close.
David Johnson enjoys season highs in touches (28), receptions (seven), rushing yards (98), and receiving yards (85)
Johnson is another running back trending upwards, and he sure came through in a big way against the Chiefs, racking up 183 total yards and two scores off a season-high 28 touches. While all of that is amazing for Johnson’s fantasy teams, the most encouraging part was arguably his 85 receiving yards from seven-of-nine targets, resembling the kind of passing-game usage we saw in 2016. It’s a sign that Johnson will continue to be utilized more effectively under new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich.
Through two games with Leftwich, Johnson has already caught 11-of-13 targets for 126 yards, compared to catching just 20-of-30 targets for 166 yards over the prior seven games with Mike McCoy. Leftwich is also using Johnson differently as a rusher, reducing his carries between the tackles.
If all of that wasn’t encouraging enough, Johnson has an extremely favorable schedule moving forward, starting with a plus matchup against the crumbling Raiders in Week 11. He also has an excellent trio of opponents in the fantasy playoffs, facing the Lions, Falcons, and Rams. Maybe it’s too soon to say “he’s back,” but all signs point to a strong second finish for Johnson, and if you bought low prior to last week, you could be well rewarded the rest of the way.
Aaron Rodgers is just the QB9 through 10 weeks
Look, outside of the shallowest of formats, you aren’t sitting Rodgers, but it’s still strange to see him checking in as just the ninth-best quarterback in terms of fantasy points this deep into the season. He’s still averaging over 300 passing yards per game, and has amazingly only thrown one interception all season, but his 17 passing touchdowns ranks just 11th, and is a far cry from the lofty marks at the top from Patrick Mahomes (31) and Andrew Luck (26).
While averaging around 20 fantasy points per game hardly qualifies as a bust, and he deserves a partial pass for the knee injury he’s dealt with all season, it’s still an underwhelming output for a guy who was universally drafted as the first quarterback off the board over the summer. Drafting a quarterback late is hardly a revolutionary strategy anymore, but this is once again the perfect example of why it makes so much sense to wait when Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, and Mahomes were on average the 13th through 16th quarterbacks taken off the board. And that doesn’t even include waiver wire darlings this year like Mitch Trubisky and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
As for Rodgers, we’ve seen that ceiling emerge a couple times this season with 400-yard outings in Weeks 5 and 6, and there’s plenty of time for him to have the last laugh on one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. Rodgers’ schedule is a mixed bag moving forward, starting with a tough matchup with Seattle this week. However, a date with the Falcons in Week 14 sure looks like a potential spike week, and after the Jets’ embarrassing loss to the Bills, that could also be better than expected spot for championship week.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
