Monday’s highly-anticipated Chiefs-Rams contest sure didn’t disappoint, and even if you didn’t have any fantasy skin in the game, it’s not often you get to witness two NFL teams combine for 105 points. It’s going to be hard to top that game in Week 12, let alone the rest of the season, but it’s fun that the NFL can still surprise us sometimes. Perhaps we really did get a preview of this year’s Super Bowl? As always, let’s take a look at the surprises, stats, and trends entering Week 12, and how they might affect your fantasy football teams moving forward.
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Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combine for 366 passing yards in Week 11, but also throw four interceptions
Those contrasting stats tell the tale of Tampa Bay’s 2018 quarterback situation as the duo of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston continue to play a frustrating game of hot potato every few weeks. After tossing three interceptions against the Giants, Fitzpatrick was once again benched mid-game in favor of Winston, and the pair would ultimately combine for 366 passing yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions. Even with the picks, that would be a strong fantasy day — if it was one quarterback.
And that’s been the issue if you’ve been riding this rollercoaster with either player (or both) this season. The highs have been great when either one manages to stick around for a whole game, with the two combining to average a massive 374.6 passing yards per game with 25 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. As one quarterback, that would rank first overall in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns. But those combined marks would also lead the league in interceptions by a cringe-worthy margin (individually they’ve thrown the second- and third-most picks), and the mid-game benchings have been costly, likely single-handedly contributing to losses on the fantasy gridiron.
But on a team that finds itself in near-weekly shootouts due to its poor defense, the upside is still undeniable. Winston has already been tabbed the starter against the 49ers this week, and the game is touting a very fantasy-friendly 55-point total. The way things have gone, we can’t rule out yet another switch down the line, but Winston figures to have a decent leash at this juncture, and while it won’t always be pretty, he should provide elite fantasy numbers as long as he’s in there.
David Johnson notches season-highs in carries (25) and rushing yards (137) in Week 11
Johnson wasn’t able to match his monster fantasy score from Week 10, but it was encouraging to see him once again put up some season-bests last week, tallying his most carries and rushing yards of the season. He curiously only saw three targets, but overall he’s now seen 26 and 28 touches in back-to-back games since the bye week, compiling 337 total yards over that span. The arrow continues to point upward for Johnson under offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, and as a reminder, he draws the Lions, Falcons, and Rams in Weeks 14-16 — all plus matchups for running backs. It may have been frustrating over the season’s first couple months, but at the end of the day, Johnson may very well come through when you need him the most.
Mark Ingram rushes for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games
Ingram is proving he can coexist with Alvin Kamara as a high-upside fantasy asset, rushing for over 100 yards in each of the last two games while totaling three touchdowns. The Saints have now scored 45 or more points in three straight games, and although we can’t expect that kind of output every week, much like the Rams and Chiefs, the ceiling for any skill player in this offense remains sky-high. Of course, Kamara’s presence still means the floor remains low for Ingram, and as recently as Week 9, Ingram was left out in the cold with just 10 touches for 36 total yards.
Still, he has a good chance for another big performance against the Falcons, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs this year. Atlanta gets demolished by pass-catching backs — which is clearly in Kamara’s wheelhouse — allowing the most receptions and receiving yards to opposing backfields, but they also rank 31st in both DVOA against the run and rushing yards allowed per attempt (5.1). The Saints hold a grand 36.25 implied total, and ultimately, whether it’s on the ground or through the air, both Kamara and Ingram should feast on a generous helping of fantasy points this Thanksgiving.
John Brown has been held to single-digit fantasy points in five of the last six games
Brown may have begun the year on a high note, but he’s been far more bust than boom lately, with single-digit fantasy points in five of the last six games in both PPR and standard formats. Week 11 initially looked like a great potential bounce-back spot, but with Lamar Jackson in at quarterback, the game plan switched to a decidedly run-heavy approach, leading to Jackson only attempting 19 passes for 13 completions and 150 passing yards. As a result, Brown only saw one measly target, which he converted for 23 yards.
With Joe Flacco still ailing, Jackson could draw another start in Week 12, leaving Brown as an extremely risky play despite an amazing matchup against the woeful Raiders. Even after last week’s quiet day, Brown is still top 10 in air yards, so the big-play potential remains great, but he’s better off on your bench as long as Jackson is at the helm. However, if and when Flacco returns, the upcoming schedule is rather enticing for Brown, as following the Raiders he’ll face the Falcons, Chiefs, and Bucs.
Corey Davis matches a season-low four targets in Week 11
Ugh, here we go again. Right when it looked like we could trust this offense, Marcus Mariota goes down with another injury, and the Colts demolish the Titans 38-10 in what looked to be a great matchup to put up some points. After back-to-back games with 10 targets, Davis’ volume evaporated in the disaster, catching just two-of-four targets for 30 yards. His four targets were the lowest he’s seen since Week 6.
It’s becoming increasingly frustrating to rely on Davis this season, who owns an elite 29% target market share that ranks among the best in the league, but that doesn’t translate to consistent fantasy points with a hobbled Mariota or Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Davis flashed impressive upside in Weeks 4 and 10, and chances are another spike week will materialize again at some point. But it looks unlikely he’ll elevate himself above boom-or-bust WR3/flex status in most leagues if Mariota can’t stay healthy.
It turns out Mariota suffered a stinger rather than re-injuring his elbow, which is good news, and head coach Mike Vrabel is hopeful he’ll start against Houston. However, with Tennessee not playing until Monday, unless there’s early confirmation that Mariota is playing, you might be better off leaving Davis on the bench to avoid a potential Gabbert start.
Julio Jones has scored in three games in a row
Well, will you look at that, Jones has a touchdown in three straight games! He’s now matched last year’s total over 16 games, and has a great opportunity to promptly surpass it on Thanksgiving against the Saints. New Orleans’ defense has looked better over the past couple weeks following blowout wins over the Eagles and Bengals, and there’s evidence to suggest they’ve improved after a slow start to the season. Even so, this is still a squad that’s just 27th in passing yards allowed per game and 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt, and we saw them in a shootout with the Rams just a few weeks back, allowing 35 points. When Jones faced the Saints in Week 3, he caught five-of-six targets for 96 yards.
On the year, Jones now ranks first in receiving yards, fourth in receptions, second in targets, and first in air yards. Obviously, he’s unlikely to have that kind of elite ranking in touchdowns by season’s end, but he’s quickly reminding us of how inexplicable that scoreless streak truly was. And who knows, maybe when it’s all said and done he’ll have enough scores that we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about earlier this year.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
