How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us with a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective.
They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged, and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines. Do not stop reading now because I will provide DraftKings lineup recommendations for the Thanksgiving Day slate of NFL games.
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Quarterback
Matt Ryan ranks No. 5 in first down passer rating, Drew Brees No. 1 https://t.co/TpqYuk6CwL
— The Falcons Wire (@TheFalconsWire) November 20, 2018
My recommendation is Matt Ryan. He did leave a bad taste in the mouth of fantasy players last week against the Cowboys defense. This was the first game Ryan was held under 300 passing yards in five games. A player’s per game average is very predictive and he has averaged 330 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game this season. Ryan and the Falcons play against the Saints in a matchup that has the highest projected point totals of the week (60). The Falcons find themselves as 13-point underdogs. The Falcons are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games on the road against the Saints. Negative game flow will bode well for Ryan, his receivers and fantasy players in this matchup.
Running Back
Since entering the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott has:
• 17 games with 100+ rush yards
• 24 games with 100+ scrimmage yards
• 4 games with 200+ scrimmage yards
• 3,567 rush yards
The one similarity between these numbers?
Elliott leads the NFL in each since 2016#Cowboys
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 18, 2018
My first RB recommendation is Ezekiel Elliott. He willed the Cowboys to victory last week against the Falcons accumulating 201 total yards on 30 touches. Elliott is averaging nearly 25 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) per game. The Cowboys are 7.5-point favorites at home in a matchup against the Redskins that has a projected point total of only 40.5 points. The great news is that the over has been hit in three of the Cowboys four homes so far this season. Elliott will be involved in the offense whether the Cowboys are leading or trailing. He is averaging 21.1 PPR fantasy points per game this season.
Maybe Thursday will finally be the Jordan Howard game.
— Daniel Greenberg (@ChiSportUpdates) November 20, 2018
My second RB recommendation is Jordan Howard. The Bears rank fourth in rushing attempts per game with 29.2. The question is whether Howard or Tarik Cohen will get the opportunities. Howard has a higher number of snaps played and touches than Cohen over the last two games. The word on the street from reporters and beat writers suggests that quarterback Mitch Trubisky will be inactive Thursday against the Lions. This would result in Chase Daniel being under center who does have familiarity with head coach Matt Nagy and his offensive time from their time together in Kansas City, but I feel in this scenario the game script will lead to more opportunities for Howard. The projected point total on this matchup is 45. The total has gone over in six of the Bears last seven games.
Wide Receivers
.@juliojones_11 just passed one of the best WRs to ever play. pic.twitter.com/THeR6d474u
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 18, 2018
My first WR recommendation is Julio Jones. Targets and air yards per game are very predictive for receivers. Jones is averaging 11.1 targets and 156 air yards per game. He is averaging 20.6 PPR fantasy points per game. The Saints defense is allowing 280 passing yards and two touchdowns per game this season.
The value of trading for Amari Cooper will still be debated, but early on, it has worked. The #Cowboys are 2-1 and just as important, look at the difference it has made on QB Dak Prescott to finally have a real No. 1 — via @NFLResearch pic.twitter.com/ZWTe01pYYz
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 19, 2018
My second WR recommendation is Amari Cooper. He has caught 14 of 23 targets for 169 receiving yards since joining the Cowboys. Cooper may be lined up across Redskins cornerback Josh Norman on a high percentage of snaps, but I would not be intimidated. The Redksins defense can be exploited. This unit has allowed 305 passing yards per game over the last three. The Redskins secondary has allowed monster games to Odell Beckham, Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins.
The Lions benched DeShawn Shead for something named Mike Ford in Week 11, who has now played 39 career snaps. Liability Nevin Lawson moved to the slot.
Expected Thanksgiving Day matchups vs. the Bears
A-Rob vs. Darius Slay
Taylor Gabriel vs. Ford
Anthony Miller vs. Lawson— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 20, 2018
Anthony Miller is my third WR recommendation. The rookie continues to improve every week and is athletically gifted. The Lions secondary isn’t an easy matchup, but I believe Miller can thrive even with Daniels under center. Allen Robinson will be busy going toe to toe with Lions cornerback Darius Slay which would open the door for additional targets to come Miller’s way.
Tight End
TE target leaders per game LAST 4 WEEKS:
10.25 — Travis Kelce
8.75 — Jordan Reed
8.3 — Zach Ertz
8 — Rob Gronkowski
7.3 — George Kittle, Austin Hooper
7 — Jeff Heuerman
5.5 — Jared Cook
5.3 — Ricky Seals-Jones, Evan Engram— Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) November 21, 2018
Hooper is my recommendation at TE. He has been targeted 48 times over the last six games. The matchup is not ideal against a Saints defense that has only allowed 37.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Hooper is still a TE1 and leads all Falcons receivers with 11 red zone targets.
It's been a quiet few games for Calvin Ridley, but let's not forget the last time the rookie played the Saints he had 3 touchdowns.
And Matt Ryan expects him to play well. https://t.co/wUzGeO0e54 pic.twitter.com/POnDgWvNp6
— Kelsey Conway (@FalconsKelsey) November 20, 2018
Calvin Ridley is my flex recommendation. He has averaged six targets per game since the Falcons bye week. Given the projected point total of the team’s matchup against the Saints, it would be prudent to have exposure to Ridley or Mohamed Sanu in this matchup.
Defense
The Cowboys defense has now gone 9 straight road games without allowing more than 24 points. That should win a lot of games. Last team to do it? Atlanta last year #DALvsATL
— Babe Laufenberg (@BabeLaufenberg) November 18, 2018
My D/ST recommendation is the Cowboys at $3,200. Redskins quarterback Colt McCoy is making his first start in four years on the road in Dallas on a short week.
Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.