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Analyzing Vegas Odds for the Thanksgiving Day Games

Analyzing Vegas Odds for the Thanksgiving Day Games

How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us with a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective.

They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged, and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines. Do not stop reading now because I will provide DraftKings lineup recommendations for the Thanksgiving Day slate of NFL games.

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Quarterback

My recommendation is Matt Ryan. He did leave a bad taste in the mouth of fantasy players last week against the Cowboys defense. This was the first game Ryan was held under 300 passing yards in five games. A player’s per game average is very predictive and he has averaged 330 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game this season. Ryan and the Falcons play against the Saints in a matchup that has the highest projected point totals of the week (60). The Falcons find themselves as 13-point underdogs. The Falcons are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games on the road against the Saints. Negative game flow will bode well for Ryan, his receivers and fantasy players in this matchup.

Running Back

My first RB recommendation is Ezekiel Elliott. He willed the Cowboys to victory last week against the Falcons accumulating 201 total yards on 30 touches. Elliott is averaging nearly 25 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) per game. The Cowboys are 7.5-point favorites at home in a matchup against the Redskins that has a projected point total of only 40.5 points. The great news is that the over has been hit in three of the Cowboys four homes so far this season. Elliott will be involved in the offense whether the Cowboys are leading or trailing. He is averaging 21.1 PPR fantasy points per game this season.

My second RB recommendation is Jordan Howard. The Bears rank fourth in rushing attempts per game with 29.2. The question is whether Howard or Tarik Cohen will get the opportunities. Howard has a higher number of snaps played and touches than Cohen over the last two games. The word on the street from reporters and beat writers suggests that quarterback Mitch Trubisky will be inactive Thursday against the Lions. This would result in Chase Daniel being under center who does have familiarity with head coach Matt Nagy and his offensive time from their time together in Kansas City, but I feel in this scenario the game script will lead to more opportunities for Howard. The projected point total on this matchup is 45. The total has gone over in six of the Bears last seven games.

Wide Receivers

My first WR recommendation is Julio Jones. Targets and air yards per game are very predictive for receivers. Jones is averaging 11.1 targets and 156 air yards per game. He is averaging 20.6 PPR fantasy points per game. The Saints defense is allowing 280 passing yards and two touchdowns per game this season.

My second WR recommendation is Amari Cooper. He has caught 14 of 23 targets for 169 receiving yards since joining the Cowboys. Cooper may be lined up across Redskins cornerback Josh Norman on a high percentage of snaps, but I would not be intimidated. The Redksins defense can be exploited. This unit has allowed 305 passing yards per game over the last three. The Redskins secondary has allowed monster games to Odell Beckham, Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins.

Anthony Miller is my third WR recommendation. The rookie continues to improve every week and is athletically gifted. The Lions secondary isn’t an easy matchup, but I believe Miller can thrive even with Daniels under center. Allen Robinson will be busy going toe to toe with Lions cornerback Darius Slay which would open the door for additional targets to come Miller’s way.

Tight End

Hooper is my recommendation at TE. He has been targeted 48 times over the last six games. The matchup is not ideal against a Saints defense that has only allowed 37.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Hooper is still a TE1 and leads all Falcons receivers with 11 red zone targets.

Calvin Ridley is my flex recommendation. He has averaged six targets per game since the Falcons bye week. Given the projected point total of the team’s matchup against the Saints, it would be prudent to have exposure to Ridley or Mohamed Sanu in this matchup.

Defense

My D/ST recommendation is the Cowboys at $3,200. Redskins quarterback Colt McCoy is making his first start in four years on the road in Dallas on a short week.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!

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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.

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