How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us with a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective.

They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged, and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines. Do not stop reading now because we will discuss five games that offer the most upside from a DFS perspective for Sunday contests.

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Since 2000, there have only been two games with an over/under above 59.5:

— in 2000, the Rams @ 49ers (63.0)
— in 2004, the Raiders @ Chiefs (60.0)

Monday night's Chief's @ Rams game currently sits at 63.5

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 14, 2018

The Chiefs are 5-0 against the spread and straight up in its last five games against the Rams. The total has gone under in five of the Chiefs last seven games, but there should be enough points scored to satisfy DFS players with lineup exposure to players from both of these teams. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff are elite DFS options at the QB position if you are open to absorbing their salary when creating lineups this weekend.

• Patrick Mahomes enters Week 11 averaging 315 passing yards and 26.4 fantasy points per game. The Rams defense has had many ups and downs up to this point of the season despite acquiring multiple high-profile players including Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Ndamukong Suh, and Sam Shields. This unit is intimidating in name only. The Rams defense has faced a gauntlet of elite quarterbacks over the last three games including Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson. Mahomes has the offensive weapons to finish as the fantasy QB1 this week. The irony is that Rams defense is performing eerily similar to the Chiefs defense which leads me to my next recommendation.
• Jared Goff is averaging 313.4 passing yards and 21.6 fantasy points per game. He has thrown two or more touchdowns over the last four games. The Chiefs defense has improved dramatically over the last four games allowing fewer points and yards per game than their first six. These improvements have been against less talented offenses and this unit will be tested by the Rams offense.

Running Backs

Todd Gurley is my preferred RB target in this matchup from a DFS perspective, but Kareem Hunt should not be ignored.

• Gurley is averaging 139 total yards and 25 opportunities (rushing attempt plus targets) per game. The Chiefs defense happens to allow 35 fantasy points per game in PPR formats to RBs. Gurley is averaging 28.5 per game.
• Gurley (69), Nick Chubb (78), and Adrian Peterson (78) are the only RBs with more rushing attempts than Kareem Hunt over the last four games. Success or failure for Hunt against the Rams front seven could come down to his use as a receiver out of the backfield. He has accumulated 16 targets over the last four games.

Receivers

Tyreek Hill, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, and Travis Kelce all deserve one roster spot in your lineup.

• Hill has scored 15 or more PPR fantasy points in 56 percent of his games this season. He is averaging eight targets, 89 receiving yards, and 110 air yards per game. None of the Rams cornerbacks have the play speed to cover Hill.
• Woods is averaging eight targets and 83 receiving yards per game this season with Cooks’ per game averages (seven targets and 86 receiving yards) being eerily similar. The season-ending ACL injury to Cooper Kupp will free up additional targets for both of them and an increased opportunity to run routes from the slot. Woods and Cooks have the opportunity in this matchup to finish as top-10 fantasy receivers.
• Sammy Watkins is expected to return this week after a foot injury caused him to be inactive in Week 10 against the Cardinals. He will have an opportunity to thrive in a plus matchup like this one with the highest projected point total of the week. Watkins can be viewed as a high upside WR3.
• Kelce continues to be a difference maker at a position in which there is very few this season. He has scored 15 or more PPR fantasy points in 60 percent of his games this season. Kelce is averaging nine targets per game.

Spending a few days with the Eagles this week before they get ready for the Saints. New Orleans players already feeling like this could be the game the Eagles break out and rage. Saints preparing like it’s the Eagles of the last Super Bowl.

— Dianna Russini (@diannaESPN) November 13, 2018

Did you know that the total has gone over in the Eagles last five games on the road with an average combined score of 57 points? Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees and Carson Wentz are viable DFS options this week, but I have some observations you should be aware of.

• Brees is averaging 289 passing yards per game. The Saints are home favorites but are only 2-8 against the spread when favored by seven points or more. The team has failed to cover four straight under those conditions. Brees should have his way with an Eagles secondary dealing with multiple injuries including Ronald Darby who recently suffered a torn ACL. The Eagles defense is allowing 266 passing yards per game which ranks 23rd in the NFL.
• Wentz faces a Saints defense that is stout against the run but allows 296 passing yards per game. This bodes well for him and the Eagles receivers. Wentz is averaging 307 passing yards and 2.14 touchdowns in the seven games he’s played this season.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are the RBs you should target in this matchup. Both should have multiple opportunities to score touchdowns in this matchup.

• Kamara leads the NFL in red-zone targets (21) and the only RB with more red zone carries is Gurley. The Eagles defense is allowing 4.7 yards per rushing attempt.
• Ingram faced difficult matchups against the Ravens, Vikings, and Rams totaling 170 yards in those three games before going boom against the Bengals for 162 total yards. He has a plus matchup against the Eagles front seven.

Receivers

Michael Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, and Zach Ertz are the safest options when constructing DFS lineups, but Golden Tate is a sneaky play as a WR3 or flex option.

• Thomas is ranked No. 1 in receptions (78), No. 1 in catch rate (90%), No. 2 in receiving yards (950), and is tied for No. 5 in receiving touchdowns (7). He has the potential to finish as the top fantasy wide receiver this week.
• Jeffery is averaging nine targets, 65 receiving yards, and 96 air yards per game this season. He has the athletic ability to dominate Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
• Ertz is scoring 15 or more PPR fantasy points in 67 percent of his games. He is averaging 11 targets per game.
• Tate has historically been very productive as a slot receiver. He will be matched up against Saints slot corner P.J. Williams who is in the midst of a roller coaster season.

Two touchdowns for @obj! No. 13 was all over the field in the #NYGiants win over the 49ers.#NextGenStats presented by @Visa pic.twitter.com/i38iWp5V8U

— New York Giants (@Giants) November 14, 2018

The Giants are winless at home this season and are 2-10 straight up in their last 12 home games. The over has been hit by the Buccaneers in seven out of nine games this season. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick is my preferred target and our very own Mike Tagliere and I are aligned. Here is his take on Fitzpatrick this week from the FantasyPros Player Notes:

He’s now started and finished five games this season, and has totaled at least 400 yards passing in four of them. It didn’t seem to matter much against Washington, as his 400 yards passing led to just three points on offense because he was intercepted in the end zone and then fumbled on the goal-line. Dirk Koetter named him the starter on Monday, so he didn’t waver about who to play this week. Koetter also took over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Todd Monken, which makes little sense because the offensive production hasn’t been the problem with the team. Against the Giants, it may be both Koetter’s and Fitzpatrick’s final stand if they cannot put points on the board. Despite being one of the favorites for the No. 1 overall pick, the Giants secondary has held 6-of-9 quarterbacks to 250 yards or less, and has allowed multiple passing touchdowns just three times. They have allowed the second-most rushing yards (208) to quarterbacks this year, and Fitzpatrick has quietly had four games with 23-plus rushing yards. The reason to trust Fitzpatrick in this matchup is because the Giants don’t have the talent at cornerback necessary to cover the Bucs receivers, as they’re currently starting Janoris Jenkins (hasn’t been good), undrafted rookie Grant Haley, and career 111.6 QB Rating in-coverage B.W. Webb. Fitzpatrick is in the low-end QB1 conversation, though we’ll also want to pay attention to the weather conditions given the time of year.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley is my preferred option, but Peyton Barber could be viable for DFS players looking for an inexpensive option as an RB2.

• Barkley is averaging 23 opportunities per game this season. He has accumulated 100 or more yards in eight of nine games. The Giants offensive line has struggled to open up running lanes for Barkley this season, but his heavy use as a receiver out of the backfield has sustained his fantasy value. Did you know he only has two games this season with 100 rushing yards or more?
• Barber is only averaging 13 rushing attempts per game this season and continues to see minimal opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield. The Giants defense has struggled against the run without Damon Harrison. Success or failure for Barber this week from a fantasy perspective will come down to if he scores a touchdown. He should have opportunities given the matchup.

Receivers

The only Giants receiver you should have confidence is in Odell Beckham. The team has struggled to sustain drives. The Giants have a 35 percent success rate on third-down conversion which ranks 27th in the NFL. The team is ranked last in total first downs. My preferred options on the Buccaneers are Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson.

• Beckham is averaging 11 targets and 127 air yards per game this season. He has only caught 64 percent of his targets this season due to the inconsistent play of quarterback Eli Manning.
• Evans has struggled over the last two games. He was very efficient before that averaging over 100 receiving yards per game. Evans could bounce back given the projected point total of this matchup but will be matched up against Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins.
• The absence of Eli Apple opens the door for DeSean Jackson to be a difference maker. He has averaged 6.6 targets per game since the Buccaneers have come out of their bye week. Jackson is a solid WR3 or flex option with upside this week.

Percentage of carries gaining 10+ yards this season (minimum 100 rushes):
1, Melvin Gordon (19.2%)
2. Matt Breida (17.7%)
3. Philip Lindsay (16.4%)
4. Christian McCaffrey (16.3%)
5. Joe Mixon (14.7%)
6. James Conner (14.6%)
7. Ezekiel Elliott (14.3%0
8. Todd Gurley (14.1%)

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 14, 2018

The over has been hit in six of the Panthers last eight games. The trend is similar in Detroit. The Lions have seen the total go over in six of their last nine games. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton is the quarterback to target in this matchup. FantasyPros writer Andrew Gould provides a solid breakdown on why Newton will bounce back this week:

Although Newton fell shy of 200 passing yards for the first time since Week 3, he has now tossed at least two touchdowns in each of the last eight games. He has also flashed sharp accuracy by completing 63 of 83 passes (75.9) over the last three games. Meanwhile, Detroit’s last three opponents (Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Mitchell Trubisky) have gone a combined 55-of-69 (79.7%) for 767 yards (11.1 YPA) and seven touchdowns. Only the Raiders have allowed more yards per attempt (9.1) than the Lions’s 8.9, so expect a strong bounce-back outing from Carolina’s quarterback.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey and Kerryon Johnson should be targeted in this matchup.

• McCaffrey is averaging 20.6 opportunities per game this season. He is being used as a workhorse and the release of C.J. Anderson only reinforces that.
• Johnson is the most talented RB on the Lions roster. My biggest concern is that he is sharing snaps and opportunities with LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick. Johnson is averaging 15.5 opportunities per game and faces a Panthers defense allowing 4.4 rushing yards per attempt.

Receivers

Kenny Golladay and Greg Olsen are my preferred targets.

• Golladay is averaging 6.8 targets per game this season but set a career high in targets last week with 13. This was the first game he was targeted 10 or more times since Week 1. Golladay has averaged 5.3 receptions, 75.6 receiving yards, and 0.86 touchdowns per game in seven career games with five or more targets. ESPN Insider Adam Schefter reported Lions receiver Marvin Jones is day to day with a bone bruise. It is possible that he misses Sunday’s game against the Panthers. The Lions have a short week in Week 12 due to their annual Thanksgiving game.
• Olsen is averaging 5.6 targets per game since returning from a foot injury. The Lions have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends and 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Olsen is in a prime position to outperform his DFS salary in this matchup.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!

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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.