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Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 13

Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 13

How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us with a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective.

They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged, and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines. Do not stop reading now because we will discuss three games that your DFS lineups should have exposure to in Sunday’s Week 13 contests.

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Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Money Line Home Money Line
December 2, 2018 1:00 PM Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers 55.0 -170 +153

 
The Panthers find themselves in the midst of a three-game losing streak. They opened the week as four-point favorites against the Buccaneers with a projected point total of 56. The Panthers are 1-4 straight up and against the spread in road games this season. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

The over has been hit in 73 percent of the Buccaneers games this season. Cam Newton has scored 20 or more fantasy points in 73 percent of his games this season while throwing two or more passing touchdowns in 10 straight games.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey has scored 20 or more fantasy points in 64 percent of his games while seeing 21 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) per game this season. Last week against the Seahawks, McCaffrey became the 16th player to ever record at least 100 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 100 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown in one game.

Peyton Barber is not an exciting DFS option, but he has been very productive as of late and is a nice value given his salary. He has averaged nearly 16 rushing attempts per game over the last five while scoring a touchdown in three of them. Barber will have scoring opportunities in this matchup.

Receivers

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cameron Brate, Adam Humphries, Greg Olsen, and D.J. Moore are all excellent options.

Evans has 100 or more receiving yards in four games with quarterback Jameis Winston under center and can be viewed as a WR1. He has scored 20 or more PPR fantasy points in 64 percent of his games in 2018. Godwin and Humphries are on the WR3 radar, but Humphries has the more exploitable matchup against Panthers cornerback Captain Munnerlyn. The Panthers secondary has allowed 285 passing yards per game over the last three.

The Buccaneers secondary has improved over the last three games. Olsen has only been targeted seven times over the last two games. The Buccaneers have surrendered the second-most fantasy points this season to tight ends. The only other team that has surrendered more is the Panthers. Moore has converted 17 targets into 248 receiving yards. He has the potential to greatly outperform his salary in this matchup.

Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Money Line Home Money Line
December 2, 2018 4:05 PM Chiefs -15.5 at Raiders 55.0 -1141 +774

 
The Chiefs look to get back on track out of the bye week after suffering their second loss of the season. They are 15-point favorites with the total opening at 55. The Chiefs are 11-4 straight up and against the spread in its last 15 games at Oakland. The over has hit in seven of the Chiefs last eight road games. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes has scored 15 or more fantasy points in every game this season while scoring 20 or more in 91 percent of them. He is averaging a robust 329 passing yards per game. The Chiefs offense should be able to impose their will on the Raiders defense that is the worst in the NFL at pressuring the quarterback with just 10 sacks in 11 games. Mahomes is an elite QB1 that is worth his DFS salary.

Running Backs

The Raiders defense has allowed the highest number of rushing yards per game this season. This unit has allowed 170 rushing yards per game over its last three games. Kareem Hunt is averaging nearly 20 touches per game and could finish Week 13 as the top fantasy running back.

It is difficult to trust any of the Raiders running backs given the state of the offense, but game flow could benefit Jalen Richard for those looking to take on more risk with their DFS lineup. He’s averaged 5.2 targets over the last five games.

Receivers

Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, and Travis Kelce are my preferred targets. Sammy Watkins remained sidelined at the Chiefs practice yesterday and is trending toward not being active. Hill is averaging nine targets, 101 receiving yards, and 118 air yards per game this season. He has scored 20 or more PPR fantasy points in 55 percent of the games this season. Conley finds himself on the WR3 radar if Watkins is inactive. Kelce continues to be a difference maker at a position where there are very few this season. He’s accumulated 41 targets over the Chiefs last four games and should be prioritized in lineups if you are open to paying a premium at the tight end position.

Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Money Line Home Money Line
December 2, 2018 1:00 PM Rams -10.0 at Lions 54.5 -456 +389

 
The Rams are heavy favorites on the road against the Lions, but their defense makes this game intriguing from a DFS perspective. The Rams defense has allowed 372.5 total yards per game this season, but that number has escalated to 482.3 over their last three. The team is 4-6-1 against the spread this season while being 8-21-1 against the spread in their last 11 games after a bye. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff is my preferred option in this matchup given the struggles that Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has had since Golden Tate was traded. Our very own Andrew Gould summed up his outlook perfectly in his player notes:

The Lions had allowed 350 passing yards and three touchdowns to Mitchell Trubisky and Cam Newton before ceding 230 yards and two touchdowns in Chase Daniel’s first start since 2014. Only the Raiders and Buccaneers have permitted more yards per pass attempt than their 8.6, and only Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged more yards per pass than Goff’s 9.3. His recent volume may erode against a depleted Detroit squad, but he’s still an elite Week 13 option.

Goff is averaging 322 passing yards per game this season while scoring 20 or more fantasy points in 55 percent of his games.

Running Backs

Todd Gurley along with Hunt has the potential given their matchups and projected point totals to finish as top-three fantasy running backs this week. Gurley’s had time to recover from his ankle injury suffered against the Chiefs back in Week 11. He is currently averaging 24 opportunities per game and has scored 20 or more fantasy points in 82 percent of his games this season. The Lions defense has shown improvement over the last few games, but Gurley has the athleticism to transcend any matchup.

Theo Riddick is on the flex radar in a matchup where the Lions are expected to trail. He has been targeted 28 times over the last four games.

Receivers

Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, Josh Reynolds, Kenny Golladay, and Bruce Ellington are all excellent options given the nature of this matchup.

Cooks and Woods have both been targeted 25 times in three games without Cooper Kupp. The only WR who has run more routes than these two players over the last four games is Kenny Golladay (179). Woods has run 178 while Cooks has run 176. Both are on the WR1 radar. Reynolds is also another solid option, but his upside is limited given the spread of this matchup. Our very own Mike Tagliere provides a nice breakdown of how you should view him this week.

After the Lions decided to bench Teez Tabor, they moved Nevin Lawson into the slot in 3WR sets (which the Rams run almost exclusively). That, of course, led them to start undrafted rookie Mike Ford in his place, a cornerback who’s allowed 11-of-12 passing for 176 yards on just 80 snaps played this year. You can start to see why the Lions have allowed 2.23 PPR points per target to opposing receivers, as they’ve allowed a touchdown every 11.7 targets in coverage. In his limited time as a starter, Reynolds has scored three touchdowns on just 20 targets. He’s the one who’d suffer the most if the Rams threw the ball just 30 or less times, but his upside is worth it against this defense. Consider him a low-end WR3 who comes with plenty of upside if Slay can shut-down Cooks.

Golladay (34) is tied with Julio Jones for the most targets over the last four weeks amongst wide receivers. Marvin Jones placement on IR due to a knee injury opens the door for Bruce Ellington to have fantasy value, but further solidifies Golladay’s role as the Lions No. 1 receiver.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!

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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.

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