How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us with a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective.
They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged, and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines. Do not stop reading now because we will discuss three games in depth that offer the most upside from a DFS perspective.
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Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 60)
James White ran 13 routes from out wide, the 2nd-most by a running back in a game this season behind Alvin Kamara in Week 1.
Only Kamara (60) has run more routes from slot/wide alignment this season than White (59) among running backs.#NEvsBUF #GoPats pic.twitter.com/bI7vOdq4nY
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 30, 2018
The Rams are the only undefeated team left in the NFL. The Saints are currently on a six-game win streak. The matchup between these two teams has the highest projected point total of the week. The Saints are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 home games. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees (284.3) and Jared Goff (303) are both averaging a healthy number of passing yards per game. The Saints defense is currently allowing 300 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns per game. Goff is my preferred option between the two because of the Saints rushing defense which is currently allowing the fewest yards per game.
Receivers
Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks are my preferred options in this matchup. All three have the potential to finish as top-12 receivers once the dust settles on Week 9.
Thomas has scored 15 or more fantasy points in 57 percent of his games while averaging nine targets, 96 receiving yards, and 71 Air Yards per game this season.
Woods has accumulated a least five catches and 70 receiving yards in every game since Week 1. Cooks has averaged 6.3 targets, three receptions, and 64 receiving yards over his last three games.
Tre’Quan Smith has the potential to break out and could provide WR3 upside considering the projected point total of this matchup.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram are all tremendous options.
Gurley has scored 25 or more fantasy points in 75 percent of his games this season. The Saints rushing defenses presents an obstacle for him, but Gurley has the athletic ability to transcend any matchup. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are my preferred options. Kamara has averaged 19.5 touches over the last two games while Ingram has averaged 15. Ingram is the better DFS value, but Kamara’s elusiveness as a receiver out of the backfield gives him the upside to finish as the RB1 this week. Roster construction should dictate which Saints running back to target.
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-6.0, 57)
Davante Adams has 52 catches for 690 yards and 6 TDs through 7 games, top-10 in all three categories league wide.
In primary coverage, he's faced
Kyle Fuller
Xavier Rhodes
Josh Norman
Tre White
Darius Slay
Marcus Peters— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) October 31, 2018
Did you know the total has gone over in seven of the Packers’ last eight night games? The Patriots, on the other hand, have gone over in seven of their last eight night games at home. This matchup has the second highest projected point total of the week. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.
Quarterbacks
I recommend you deploy Aaron Rodgers over Tom Brady in lineups.
Rodgers is averaging 326 passing yards per game and has a QBR of over 100 in his last three. The Patriots defense has allowed 300 or more passing yards to Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, and Mitchell Trubisky over the last month. Rodgers is averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game this season. He has a chance to finish this week as the QB1.
Receivers
Davante Adams, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Rob Gronkowski should all be considered for lineups.
Adams is averaging 11.1 targets per game this season. He has scored 15 or more fantasy points in all seven games this season.
Edelman is averaging 8.5 targets in the four games he’s played this season. Gordon has averaged 7.3 targets per game over his last three and his number of snaps played continue to rise. Rob Gronkowski has the best matchup of all of the Patriots receivers, but success or failure ultimately comes down to his health. The defensive play of the Packers has improved as of late, but I don’t believe their young cornerbacks can hang with Gronkowski. The Packers traded away Ha Ha Clinton-Dix who was one of their best-receiving weapons against tight ends last season.
Running Backs
James White and Aaron Jones are my preferred targets at the running back position.
I don’t believe Sony Michel will return this week. Even if he did it would surprise me if Michel was given a sizable workload. White has accumulated 77 or more total yards in five straight games and has scored six touchdowns over that time frame. He is averaging 9.25 targets per game this season.
Jones will have an opportunity to shine this week after the Packers traded Ty Montgomery to the Baltimore Ravens. Montgomery averaged seven opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) this season which I believe Jones will inherit moving forward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 54.5)
The Panthers scored 36 points last week against the Ravens defense. They are 9-0 straight up in their last nine games at home with an average winning margin of 8.78.
Quarterbacks
I recommend you target Cam Newton given the uncertainty of the Buccaneers quarterback situation. He faces a Buccaneers defense allowing the second most passing yards per game in the NFL. Newton’s rushing ability gives him an additional edge that few fantasy quarterbacks have.
Receivers
Mike Evans remains the premium option given his DFS salary. He is averaging 10 targets, 110 receiving yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 142 Air Yards per game this season.
Our very own Mike Tagliere provided an excellent breakdown of what Devin Funchess brings to the table in FantasyPros Player Notes:
He’s coming off his toughest matchup of the year against the Ravens, so don’t panic about the three targets he received that game. He’d seen at least seven targets in each of the last five games, so his volume should return to normal in this matchup against the Bucs, who have been the third-most generous defense to opposing wide receivers. They’re allowing a league-high 75.2 percent completion rate to receivers and have allowed a touchdown every 11.8 targets to them, which ranks as the third-worst in the league. He’s going to see a mixture of Carlton Davis and Brent Grimes in coverage, two cornerbacks who have combined to allow a 108.0 QB Rating in their coverage. Davis is a rookie who’s been thrown into the fire, while Grimes is a 5-foot-10, 185-pound cornerback who gives over six inches to Funchess. He’s a must-play WR2 this week and one who could post his best line of the season.
Funchess is another receiver I like this week at his DFS salary as a WR2.
D.J. Moore set a high in snaps played last week and delivered with a career-high 120 total yards on seven touches. A repeat performance is in the realm of possibilities considering the matchup.
The modus operandi for DeSean Jackson remains the same. He can be viewed as a boom or bust WR3 who lives and dies by the big play. Jackson is only averaging six targets per game and has a difficult matchup against Panthers cornerback Donte Jackson.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey and Peyton Barber should be targeted in DFS lineups this week.
McCaffrey is averaging 20.6 opportunities this season. He has a plus matchup against a Buccaneers defense allowing the fourth most yards per game.
The hamstring injury to Ronald Jones will keep him out for the next few weeks. Peyton Barber now finds himself in a committee with Jacquizz Rodgers. He has rushed for 80 or more yards in two of his past three games and the Panthers run defense can be exploited.
Never Set a DFS Lineup Without a Chiefs Player
Kareem Hunt 🆙 pic.twitter.com/rrCbjds66o
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 28, 2018
The matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cleveland Browns has the fourth highest projected point total of Week 9 at 51.5. The total has gone over in five of the Chiefs last six games on the road. The Browns defense is allowing the fifth most yards per game.
Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Travis Kelce should all be considered when building lineups this week. I am particularly high on Hunt due to his recent workload. The Chiefs enter this matchup as 8.5-point road favorites which suggest positive game flow which would bode well for Hunt and DFS players.
Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
