DRAFT NFL Lineup Advice: Week 10

by Steven Roy | @Rockhead_Roy
Nov 9, 2018

David Johnson’s matchup against a soft Kansas City defense makes him a reliable RB option this week

Here’s a look at my DRAFT lineup advice for Week 10 NFL contests. I provide my rankings per position, a list of injuries to keep an eye on, and I conclude the article with a sample draft to give you a sense of how to approach your DRAFT contests.

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Quarterback

Player Team Opponent
1. Patrick Mahomes KC vs. ARI
2. Aaron Rodgers GB vs. MIA
3. Matt Ryan ATL at CLE
4. Drew Brees NO at CIN
5. Tom Brady NE at TEN
6. Jared Goff LAR vs. SEA
7. Carson Wentz PHI vs. DAL
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick TB vs. WAS
9. Andy Dalton CIN vs. NO
10. Philip Rivers LAC at OAK

 
Patrick Mahomes tops my QB list for the first time this year. It was very close between him and Rodgers for the first spot in the rankings. I still think Rodgers is the most talented QB in the league right now, but his pass catchers and offensive line are nowhere near what Mahomes has to work with. This isn’t to say that Mahomes isn’t a big part of the success the Chiefs offense is having.

Mahomes has been lights out this year and is a great fit for Andy Reid’s offense. His pocket presence and ability to scramble gives his offensive superstars extra time to get open. His cannon-arm allows him to hit Tyreek Hill deep down the field. He is hyper-aggressive and has made his share of mistakes (seven INTs in the last five games), but he has made about four great plays for every negative play. He has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last eight games and has 15 passing TDa in his last four.

Mahomes is generally drafted in the third round in the drafts I have had. Keep in mind these drafts include the Thursday night game and Cam Newton, who often gets drafted before Mahomes. I expect Mahomes to mostly be drafted in the second round for the contests that don’t include the Thursday game. I will take Mahomes a handful of times in the third round if I can.

Running Back

Player Team Opponent
1. Todd Gurley LAR vs. SEA
2. Melvin Gordon LAC at OAK
3. Kareem Hunt KC vs. ARI
4. Saquon Barkley NYG at SF
5. Alvin Kamara NO at CIN
6. David Johnson ARI at KC
7. Ezekiel Elliott DAL at PHI
8. James White NE at TEN
9. Tevin Coleman ATL at CLE
10. Joe Mixon CIN vs. NO
11. Nick Chubb CLE vs. ATL
12. Mark Ingram NO at CIN
13. Tarik Cohen CHI vs. DET
14. Aaron Jones GB vs. MIA
15. Marlon Mack IND vs. JAC
16. Sony Michel NE at TEN
17. Adrian Peterson WAS at TB
18. Leonard Fournette JAC at IND
19. Mike Davis SEA at LAR
20. Jordan Howard CHI vs. DET

 
David Johnson has been a huge disappointment to those who drafted him in the top-four picks for season-long drafts. He has not been a complete bust though. He currently ranks 14th in fantasy PPG and he is walking into a very good matchup. The Chiefs are giving up the most fantasy PPG to RBs in the entire league. They are also giving up the most yards per carry and receiving yards per game to RBs.

Even when I take previous opponents into account, my statistics still show KC as one of the easiest matchups for RBs. Kansas City is middle of the pack for points allowed to WRs, but this is largely due to volume. Teams fall behind and have to throw the ball 50 times to try to catch up. When looking at yards per target to WRs, Kansas City is allowing the third-lowest mark in the league. I project D.J. to get about 12-18 carries and five-to-eight targets in this matchup. Against this defense, I expect big results.

DJ normally is drafted in the middle to the end of the second round. I expect him to get drafted somewhere from the end of the first round to the middle of the second round once the Thursday game is removed from the slate. I am willing to take him at the end of the first round or later.

If I end up waiting until the fifth round to take my second RB, I usually go with Mark Ingram. I think he is in a great bounce-back spot against the A.J. Green-less Bengals. New Orleans could very well pull away in this game and end up running the ball 40 times against a very bad defense.

Injury Watch

Marlon Mack was limited at practice on Wednesday and Thursday after coming off of a bye week. He should be good to go but check his status Friday to make sure.

Sony Michel also got in a limited practice Wednesday and is expected to return after being a game-time decision last week.

Leonard Fournette practiced fully on Wednesday. This looks to be his first game back in action since Week 4. It is always possible he re-injures himself in practice, so watch for his status Friday.

Chris Carson is looking like a game-time decision on Sunday. Check back on Friday to see if there is any clarity on his status. If it looks like he has a decent chance to suit up, then Mike Davis should be dropped off this board and Crowell would move up as my 20th ranked RB.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Player Team Opponent
1. Julio Jones ATL at CLE
2. Michael Thomas NO at CIN
3. Davante Adams GB vs. MIA
4. Odell Beckham Jr. NYG at SF
5. Keenan Allen LAC at OAK
6. Tyler Boyd CIN vs. NO
7. Travis Kelce KC vs. ARI
8. Cooper Kupp LAR vs. SEA
9. Brandin Cooks LAR vs. SEA
10. Robert Woods LAR vs. SEA
11. Mike Evans TB vs. WAS
12. Tyreek Hill KC vs. ARI
13. Josh Gordon NE at TEN
14. Alshon Jeffery PHI vs. DAL
15. Julian Edelman NE at TEN
16. Zach Ertz PHI vs. DAL
17. Marvin Jones DET at CHI
18. Jarvis Landry CLE vs. ATL
19. Doug Baldwin SEA at LAR
20. Larry Fitzgerald ARI at KC

 
It will be interesting to see what the Philadelphia Eagles offense looks like after acquiring Golden Tate at the trade deadline. The most obvious fallout from this is that Nelson Agholor’s value is pretty much zero now. But how will this affect the value of Ertz and Jeffery? Ertz and Tate are both used primarily in the middle of the field on short to intermediate routes. This leads me to believe that Ertz will take much more of a hit to his value than Jeffery.

Jeffery struggled against Jacksonville and Minnesota this year, but in his other three games he totaled 22 receptions for 267 yards and four TDs. Dallas is not an easy matchup for WRs on the surface, but their efficiency against WRs has actually been below average. They allow the 11th-most yards per target to WRs. Philadelphia doesn’t have much of a run game right now, and Wentz has averaged 37.5 passes per game this season. I think Jeffery sees his usual eight-to-12 targets and is a great value at the end of the draft. He is often undrafted, so there is no need to take him before the fifth round.

Injury Watch

Mike Evans missed practice on Wednesday, but returned on Thursday. He should be good to go this weekend but check his status Friday.

Doug Baldwin missed practice Wednesday with a groin injury. This is a new injury for him so keep an eye on his practice status and if he is out, Amari Cooper would slide into the 20th spot for WRs.

Sample Draft

My pick: Second

1st round – Kareem Hunt (RB – KC) 
I already had several shares of my second-ranked RB Melvin Gordon, so I dipped one spot lower to grab Hunt with the second overall pick here.

2nd round – David Johnson (RB – ARI) 
I have taken Johnson a few times at the end of the second round now, and I feel great about him as my second RB. There are a few WRs/TEs that I like late in the draft, so I have no problem opening up with back-to-back RB picks.

3rd round – Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) 
It’s only happened two times in the 15 drafts I have done, but I was able to nab Mahomes in the third round here. Travis Kelce was still on the board, and while this was tempting, I know my chances to get Mahomes in the third will be few and far between.

4th round – Julian Edelman (WR – NE) 
The only position I had left to draft at this point was WR/TE. I had already done a few drafts and noticed that Jeffery usually wasn’t drafted at all, so I decided to take Edelman (ranked one spot lower than Jeffery) knowing that I would likely be able to get Jeffery in the fifth round.

5th round – Alshon Jeffery (WR – PHI) 
The move worked out for me this time, though it doesn’t always happen this way. In this draft, I took RBs early and WRs late. It has mostly depended on my pick number.

If I am pick 1-5, I will take one of my top five RBs. If I am pick 6-9, I will usually take one of my top four WRs if one of the top five RBs doesn’t fall to me. Finally, if I get the 10 spot, I will take D.J. and either a top WR or my second RB. I have liked the way the draft has worked for me in any of these scenarios, so I don’t really have a personal preference on drafting RB or WR early, it just depends on my pick number.

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Steve Roy is a correspondent for FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him on Twitter @Rockhead_Roy.

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1Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
2Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
3Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
4Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
5David Johnson (ARI)RB
6Kareem Hunt (KC)RB
7Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
8Michael Thomas (NO)WR
9James Conner (PIT)RB
10Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)WR
 View all Flex Rankings 
11Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
12DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
13Adam Thielen (MIN)WR
14Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
15Antonio Brown (PIT)WR
16Julio Jones (ATL)WR
17Davante Adams (GB)WR
18Brandin Cooks (LAR)WR
19Travis Kelce (KC)TE
20Robert Woods (LAR)WR
21Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
22Aaron Jones (GB)RB
23Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
24Tevin Coleman (ATL)RB
25Mike Evans (TB)WR
26Zach Ertz (PHI)TE
27Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
28JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)WR
29Mark Ingram (NO)RB
30Marlon Mack (IND)RB
1Mike Trout (LAA)CF,DH
2Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
3Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
4Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
5Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
6Bryce Harper (FA)CF,RF
7Manny Machado (FA)3B,SS
8J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
9Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B,3B
10Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
 View All Rankings 
11Corey Kluber (CLE)SP
12Jose Ramirez (CLE)2B,3B
13Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)1B
14Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
15Trea Turner (WSH)SS
16Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)LF,RF
17Carlos Correa (HOU)SS
18Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
19Joey Votto (CIN)1B
20Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B,2B
21Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
22Chris Sale (BOS)SP
23Clayton Kershaw (LAD)SP
24George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
25Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
26Luis Severino (NYY)SP
27Andrew Benintendi (BOS)LF,CF
28Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
29Starling Marte (PIT)LF,CF
30Christian Yelich (MIL)LF,CF
1Anthony Davis (NOR)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (GSW)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (OKC)PG
 View All Rankings 
11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (OKC)SG,SF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (TOR)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (HOU)PG
16Jimmy Butler (PHI)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (CHA)PG
18Kyrie Irving (BOS)PG,SG
19Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
26Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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