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DRAFT NFL Lineup Advice: Week 11

DRAFT NFL Lineup Advice: Week 11

Here’s a look at DRAFT lineup advice for Week 11 NFL contests. I provide my rankings per position, a list of injuries to keep an eye on, and I conclude the article with a sample draft to give you a sense of how to approach your DRAFT contests.

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Quarterback

Player Team Opponent
1. Patrick Mahomes KC at LAR
2. Cam Newton CAR at DET
3. Carson Wentz PHI at NO
4. Drew Brees NO vs. PHI
5. Jared Goff LAR vs. KC
6. Andrew Luck IND vs. TEN
7. Matt Ryan ATL vs. DAL
8. Deshaun Watson HOU at WAS
9. Mitchell Trubisky CHI vs. MIN
10. Dak Prescott DAL at ATL

 
On the season, Wentz is averaging 38.4 pass attempts, 307 yards, 2.1 TD, and 0.4 INT per game. He is not only firing out a high number of passes per game, but he is completing his passes at a rate of 71%. He’s essentially tied with Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Matt Ryan for second place in the league in completion percentage, trailing only Drew Brees (77%). Wentz currently ranks 11th in fantasy PPG and he has done it in an uphill battle. Here are the ranks of the teams Wentz has faced in terms of defense vs. QB: 20, 4, 11, 9, 28, 6, 13.

The Saints are ranked 31st in defense vs. QB and they are ranked fourth in defense vs. RB. In what should be a high scoring game, Wentz is set up in a perfect situation. Wentz usually goes in the fourth or fifth round. I am comfortable taking him in the fourth round.

I really like the matchups for all of the top five QBs. I have taken Mahomes three times in the third round in my first 15 drafts. Besides Mahomes, I will not take any other QB in the third round or earlier this week. With so much confidence in my QBs 1-5, I will probably only take Mahomes a couple more times in the third, if I can, and mostly wait until the fourth or fifth round to take my QB.

Running Back

Player Team Opponent
1. Todd Gurley LAR vs. KC
2. Kareem Hunt KC at LAR
3. Ezekiel Elliott DAL at ATL
4. Christian McCaffrey CAR at DET
5. Saquon Barkley NYG vs. TB
6. Melvin Gordon LAC vs. DEN
7. David Johnson ARI vs. OAK
8. Alvin Kamara NO vs. PHI
9. James Conner PIT at JAC
10. Leonard Fournette JAC vs. PIT
11. Kerryon Johnson DET vs. CAR
12. Alex Collins BAL vs. CIN
13. Mark Ingram NO vs. PHI
14. Joe Mixon CIN at BAL
15. Marlon Mack IND vs. TEN
16. Dion Lewis TEN at IND
17. Dalvin Cook MIN at CHI
18. Tarik Cohen CHI vs. MIN
19. Adrian Peterson WAS vs. HOU
20. Tevin Coleman ATL vs. DAL

 
In the first two weeks since Amari Cooper joined the Cowboys, Ezekiel Elliott has 36 carries for 212 yards, 10 receptions for 87 yards, and two total TDs. Zeke is second among RBs in the league with 24 looks (carries + targets) per game. He is currently ranked eighth among RBs for fantasy PPG, but this is largely due to lack of TDs. Now that the offense is more balanced, I expect this to change over the rest of the season as Dallas should put up more points. Zeke generally goes in the middle to end of the first round and I am willing to take him as early as third overall.

There are eight RBs this week that I am comfortable taking in the first round. I will likely end up with Hunt, Zeke and McCaffrey as my highest owned RBs in this range. I have all of them ranked above Barkley, Gordon, and Kamara, but most do not. My general strategy on RBs this week is to take one of these eight in the first round if I can and then wait until the fourth or fifth round to take my second RB. Collins and Ingram are usually available in this range.

Injury Watch

Joe Mixon was downgraded to a limited practice on Thursday with a knee issue. He missed two games earlier this year with a knee issue, and it’s possible he re-aggravated the injury. Check his status Friday.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Player Team Opponent
1. DeAndre Hopkins HOU at WAS
2. Michael Thomas NO vs. PHI
3. Odell Beckham Jr. NYG vs. TB
4. Julio Jones ATL vs. DAL
5. Tyreek Hill KC at LAR
6. Antonio Brown PIT at JAC
7. Adam Thielen MIN at CHI
8. Brandin Cooks LAR vs. KC
9. Robert Woods LAR vs. KC
10. Travis Kelce KC at LAR
11. Alshon Jeffery PHI at NO
12. Zach Ertz PHI at NO
13. Mike Evans TB at NYG
14. Corey Davis TEN at IND
15. Keenan Allen LAC vs. DEN
16. Amari Cooper DAL at ATL
17. Kenny Golladay DET vs. CAR
18. T.Y. Hilton IND vs. TEN
19. Larry Fitzgerald ARI vs. OAK
20. JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT at JAC

 
Odell Beckham Jr. has been targeted consistently this year. His game target totals are 15, 9, 10, 11, 14, 10, 11, 11, and 11. He is clearly one of the most talented WRs in the league, and after a slow start with 0 TDs in his first four games, he has come on lately with four TDs in his last five games. He walks into a matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are ranked 32nd in defense vs. WRs. While a lot of this is due to the volume that teams have thrown against the Bucs, they are also inefficient with their targets against. They are allowing the seventh most yards per target to opposing WRs. This is an absolute smash spot for OBJ. He goes as early as the first round in some drafts. I’m not willing to take him here, but I am willing to take him any time in the second round (never before DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, or my top eight RBs).

In most drafts, I am taking my first WR in the second round and my second WR in the third or fourth round. My top targets for my second WR this week are Cooks, Woods, Kelce, and Jeffery. If I end up waiting until the fifth round to take my second WR and none of these guys are available, I am happy to take Cooper or Golladay.

Injury Watch

Adam Thielen got in a limited practice Wednesday coming off of a bye week. He should be fine for the Sunday night matchup with the Bears, but I would continue to monitor his status to be sure.

Sample Draft

My pick: Eighth

1st round – David Johnson (RB – ARI) 
Johnson was the last of my top eight rated RBs left on the board. I always take one of these guys in the first round if I can.

2nd round – Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – NYG) 
Michael Thomas and Hopkins were already taken off the board, so I went with my third ranked WR. I have had a couple of drafts with a late pick like this where I was able to snag two of my top eight RBs. I will only take a WR after these top eight RBs are off the board.

3rd round – Robert Woods (WR – LAR) 
This was a choice between Kerryon Johnson or Robert Woods. I have Alex Collins and Mark Ingram ranked right behind Kerryon Johnson, and I knew there was a good chance one of them would still be available in the fifth round. On top of this, another strategy I am trying to employ this week is loading up on the Rams and Chiefs where I can.

4th round – Carson Wentz (QB – PHI) 
Wentz was my top rated QB on the board and like I mentioned in my third round blurb, I was fairly confident that I could get Collins or Ingram in the fifth round.

5th round – Mark Ingram (RB – NO) 
Ingram was my top-rated RB on the board.

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Steve Roy is a correspondent for FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him on Twitter @Rockhead_Roy.

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