Here’s a look at 10 team DRAFT lineup advice for Week 13 NFL contests. I provide my rankings per position, a list of injuries to keep an eye on, and I conclude the article with a sample draft to give you a sense of how to approach your DRAFT contests.

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Quarterback

 
I’m sure you’ve heard about Andrew Luck’s hot streak of eight games in a row with at least three TD passes. In these eight games Luck has thrown 27 TDs to 11 different pass catchers. Of these 27 TDs, 16 have been thrown to TEs, which happens to be the best way to attack the Jaguars defense (Luck threw all three of his TDs to TEs three weeks ago against the Jags). He has thrown eight interceptions in these eight weeks but five of those interceptions came in the two games he was without Jack Doyle and T.Y. Hilton. Luck currently sits as the fifth highest graded QB on PFF and he certainly passes the eye test if you watch him play.

As is always the case, a QB is tied to his play caller and offensive line. Frank Reich has done an amazing job this year and is keeping defenses on their toes with a great mix of formations. They run WR bunch sets, unbalanced lines with two TEs on one side (they even ran a play with three TEs on one side of the line against the Jags three weeks ago), spread formation (often using TEs in the slot or out wide), as well as a multitude of other formations. The offensive line has been as good as any group in the league this season. Luck has only been sacked 11 times, or on average once per game. Of the top 30 QBs in pass attempts, Luck ranks first in pass attempts per sack. Luck is only being sacked once on every 40 pass attempts!

 
Luck is not my top QB this week, but he has one of the safest floors. Mahomes and Goff are both big favorites and may not need to throw the ball much (though that hasn’t stopped these teams from throwing in these situations this year). I am comfortable taking Luck any time in the 4^th round or later.

Injury Watch
Jalen Ramsey did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and is looking highly questionable to face the Colts. If he does not play I would slide Luck up to the number three spot and move Goff down to number four.

Running Back

 
James White was on fire for the first nine games of the season. In those nine games White averaged 26 rushing yards, 6.8 receptions, 59 receiving yards and 1.1 TDs per game. Everyone was excited about James White and most experts had him as a rest of season RB1. Then regression struck, and it struck hard. Over the last two weeks White has averaged 39 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 18 receiving yards and 0 TDs per game. At the time of this write-up, White is ranked as RB22 for half PPR on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings. I’ve seen several people mention that White’s role has been drastically reduced because everyone is finally healthy on the Patriots. There have been three games this year in which Michel, White, Gronk, Edelman and Josh Gordon have all been active (Weeks 5, 6 and 12). Let’s take a look at White’s averages during these games versus all other games this season:

 
White scores 4.8 fewer fantasy points per game when all of those players are active. So it seems like people may have been right to say that he is less productive when everyone is active, but let’s dig deeper. If you notice in the table, White scored a lot less TDs when everyone was active. In fact his TDs averaged to 4.8 less fantasy points per game when everyone was active, the exact amount that his total fantasy points differed. So it seems like maybe White is not being used in the Red Zone as much with everyone healthy. Let’s take a look at White’s Red Zone usage with pro-football-reference Red Zone stats. If you combine RZ carries and RZ targets (let’s call them RZ looks), White has averaged three RZ looks per game in both scenarios (all active and not all active). So it seems to me like the only real difference we have seen in the games everyone has been active is that White has not been as efficient with his RZ looks. This should stabilize and White should start finding the end zone again sooner rather than later.

On top of everything I just broke down, this matchup is better for White than it is for Michel. Minnesota is ranked third in rushing fantasy points allowed to RBs, but are ranked 17^th in receiving fantasy points allowed to RBs. I will be taking white in the 4^th or 5^th round as my second RB a bunch of times this week.

Injury Watch
Matt Breida was limited in practice on Wednesday. Unless one of his legs actually fell off, I would be surprised if Breida missed a game.

Wide Receiver/ Tight End

 
There are 35 WRs in the league that are averaging at least 10 fantasy points per game in half PPR scoring on the season. Of these WRs, Mike Evans sits third in yards per reception. He trails only teammate DeSean Jackson and Josh Gordon. For these same 35 WRs he is ranked fifth in receiving yards per game. The only thing keeping him out of the top 12 in fantasy points per game is his lack of TDs. He has shown that he is more than capable of putting up bunches of TDs with two seasons of 12 TD receptions. The matchup this week against Carolina is a good one and Tampa Bay is projected by Vegas to score about 26 points in what is expected to be a bit of a shootout. Carolina ranks 27^th in defense versus QBs and 8^th in defense versus RBs. The passing game is also the strength of Tampa Bay and I expect them to be successful throwing the ball in this game.

Evans almost always goes in the 4^th round of drafts which seems like an absolute steal to me. I will take him as early as the end of the 3^rd round, but have waited and picked him in the 4^th round a couple of times already. He makes for a very high ceiling second WR or a serviceable first WR if you take two RBs and a QB in the first three rounds.

Injury Watch

Jalen Ramsey did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and is looking highly questionable to face the Colts. If he does not play I would slide T.Y. Hilton up to the 14^th spot for WRs.

Stefon Diggs missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. Diggs has been banged up for several weeks now and even missed a game in Week 9. Diggs has played better this year while banged up than he has in previous years, but I would make sure he gets in at least a limited practice Friday. If he does not, I would remove him from this list and slide Emmanuel Sanders up to 20^th.

Sample Draft

My pick: 7th

1^st round –Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
Aaron Jones was my top ranked RB still available. I will take any of my first six RBs before any WRs this week.

2^nd round – James Conner (RB – PIT)
Conner is my sixth-ranked RB and was still available in the 2^nd round. Patrick Mahomes and Cam Newton both came off the board before this pick so I was lucky to get Conner at this point. This would not be possible in most of my drafts.

3^rd round – Robert Woods (WR – LAR)
I had already taken both of my RBs for this team, so my only choice was between QB and WR. The only QBs I would consider taking in the 3^rd round are Mahomes and Cam. They were both already taken so I went with my second highest rated WR left in Robert Woods. I took a chance that I would be able to get my highest ranked WR Mike Evans in the 4^th round.

4^th round – Mike Evans (WR – TB)
My gamble paid off and I got my guy in the 4^th round. Had he not been available I likely would have taken Andrew Luck here.

5^th round – Andrew Luck (QB – IND)
I was ecstatic to see Luck fall to me this late. He generally goes in the 4^th round or early 5^th. He was my top rated QB left and it was the only position I needed to fill.

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Steve Roy is a correspondent for FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him on Twitter @Rockhead_Roy.