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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 13

DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 13

It’s Week 13 already. This season is really flying by, and if you stop paying attention for a week or two, you may miss some major developments. If you haven’t been following closely the past few weeks, you may glance at the slate this week and see Alex Collins listed at $3,900. You’d probably think to yourself, “Wow, a starting running back for less than $4,000 in a good matchup. He needs to be in all of my lineups.”

Normally I would agree, but it appears that Collins lost the starting job to Gus Edwards two weeks ago. Not knowing this could ruin your lineup before it ever had a chance. It’s important to always keep a close eye on the latest depth chart developments, especially at the end of the year, when a lot of teams are making big decisions based on their postseason chances. There’s always a lot of luck involved in fantasy football, but being more informed than your opponent(s) will almost always give you an advantage.

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Quarterback

Lamar Jackson (BAL): $5,900 at ATL
All fantasy numbers aside, Jackson has stepped in and done a great job as a rookie, going 2-0 in his first two games as a starter. He now gets one of the best matchups there is for fantasy quarterbacks. Since the start of Week 2, Atlanta has given up a minimum of 14.8 fantasy points to every single quarterback they’ve faced. This means you can almost guarantee a 15-point floor for Jackson.

On top of that, the rookie has 190 rushing yards through his first two starts, as well as one rushing touchdown. This production on the ground raises both his floor and his ceiling, making him very appealing as a fantasy option. I love his price this week and am having a very hard time envisioning a scenario in which he scores less than 20 points.

Running Backs

Theo Riddick (DET): $4,700 vs. LAR
When Golden Tate was traded to Philadelphia a handful of weeks back, many were wondering who would be the main beneficiary from the Lions. Four games later, it’s pretty clear that Riddick is the guy, as he’s compiled 25 receptions in that span. We know that his receiving prowess will do wonders in the DraftKings PPR format, and his matchup this week is very enticing. These are a few of the receiving lines that the Rams have given up to running backs as of late: Kareem Hunt (3-41-1), Mike Davis (4-22-1), and Alvin Kamara (4-34-1).

Riddick has not found the end zone yet this season, but this looks like his best chance to date. He also shouldn’t have any trouble replicating (or surpassing) those catch totals, considering he’s averaged over six catches per game in his last four contests. Riddick is the perfect PPR value play in Week 13.

Tevin Coleman (ATL): $4,500 vs. BAL
The Ravens have been very good against the run overall this year, which probably explains the low price for Coleman. However, they definitely haven’t been an impenetrable wall, as there is some production to be had. When you dive into the numbers, Baltimore has actually given up at least 14.2 PPR points to a running back in five straight games.

A lot of that has been touchdown based or receiving based, but those are both departments in which Coleman can produce. He’s had at least three receptions in four straight games, and has three receiving touchdowns over that span. No matter which way you look at it, $4,500 for the lead back in a good offense is too good of a bargain to pass up.

Wide Receivers

Josh Doctson (WAS): $4,500 at PHI
Doctson’s first game with Colt McCoy under center was very encouraging, as both his six receptions and 66 yards were season highs. The bad injury luck for Washington this year means that Doctson is going to be targeted by default, and at least in the first game, McCoy certainly looked more willing to push the ball downfield than Alex Smith. Although it was terrible to see what happened to Smith, this may actually turn Doctson into a usable fantasy asset. Over the past three weeks, the Eagles have given up an average of 15.4 PPR points per game to the combination of Odell Beckham, Michael Thomas, and Amari Cooper. Although Doctson is not as talented, he is the number one perimeter option for his team, so a solid floor should be expected considering his projected target volume.

Seth Roberts (OAK): $4,000 vs. KC
Roberts has quietly been somewhat productive as of late, with 7.8 or more PPR points in five of his last seven games. He’s playing 78.8% of his snaps from the slot, so that’s helping him achieve a bit of a consistent floor.

The Chiefs have given up an average of 13.1 PPR points per game to slot receivers over the past three weeks. Kendall Fuller has been the man in coverage, and he’s done a decent job this year of limiting big games. He will allow a decent amount of the underneath stuff though, as the average line of the past three slot receivers he’s faced comes out to 5.3 catches for 57.3 yards. Of all the receivers on the field in Oakland right now, Roberts is the only one that has any chemistry with Derek Carr, so there’s a decent chance he’ll see a target number close to the seven that he saw two weeks ago against Arizona.

Tight End

Trey Burton (CHI): $3,800 at NYG
Many would advise to stay away from Burton as long as Trubisky is out, but Burton was still targeted seven times last week in an impressive fill-in outing from Chase Daniel. Daniel is expected to start again this week as the Bears roll into New York.

Burton has struggled to gain yardage through the air this year, but the Giants may be the remedy for that, as they’ve given up 78 receiving yards or more to each of the last three tight ends they’ve faced. Each of those tight ends posted at least five catches as well. The tight end landscape is pretty barren these days, so anytime you can get a tight end in a plus matchup who should easily see five-plus targets, you have to do it.

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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.

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