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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 10 (Fantasy Football)

FanDuel Market Watch: Week 10 (Fantasy Football)

Let’s take a look at some players who have seen the most radical value shifts as we enter Week 10 of the 2018 NFL season.

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Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB): $7,600 vs. WAS (+$500)
Fitzpatrick tossed a pair of interceptions in a Week 9 loss to the Carolina Panthers, but it was basically business as usual for the Bucs’ quarterback. Indeed, Sunday was his fifth start of the season, and he’s thrown for over 400 yards or four touchdowns in all but one of those contests. Todd Monken’s passing offense is extremely prolific, and Fitzpatrick has been a fantasy stud for much of the campaign, even if he commits the occasional turnover.

Washington has allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per contest (20.1) to opposing passers, so Fitzpatrick should be in line for another impressive performance in Week 10. At $7,600, he’s tied for the 14th-most expensive quarterback on the slate, but considering the quality of weapons around him, and the fact he’s attempted 90 passes over his last two full contests, he’s still a tremendous value, even at his increased cost.

Tom Brady (NE): $8,300 @ TEN (-$700)
Tom’s still terrific and the Pats have won six in a row, but Brady’s $700 value drop is more than understandable, considering his statistical output. In fact, Touchdown Tom has only produced one multi-score game in his last four contests. While he remains the measuring stick of modern quarterback greatness, he’s simply not been the fantasy football option we’ve become used to over the last decade.

Having said that, positive regression is likely on the menu. One touchdown pass over his last two games seems more like an aberration than the new normal. Said positive regression may or may not come this week against a Titans pass defense that has been surprisingly stingy against opposing passers, but Brady clearly represents a significant discount this week, if you’re all right with a certain degree of risk.

Running Backs

Tevin Coleman (ATL): $7,300 @ CLE (+$700)
In Week 9, Coleman had the breakout game many were expecting when he took over for the injured Devonta Freeman. In a blowout victory over Washington, Coleman took 13 carries for 88 yards and added five receptions for an additional 68 yards and two touchdowns. It was a top-notch performance against an opponent that had previously been solid against opposing running backs.

That makes his match-up against a Browns’ defense that is currently allowing the fourth-most FanDuel points per contest to opposing runners (28.0) all the more appetizing. Ito Smith will remain in the mix (he had 11 touches of his own against Washington), but Coleman is the clear leader of this backfield. The Falcons boast a truly explosive offense, and this is a premium matchup. There’s a lot to like here.

Tarik Cohen (CHI): $6,400 vs. DET (-$800)
After four weeks of immense production, Cohen struggled to get anything going against the Bills in Week 9, taking six carries for only five yards, and only catching one pass for eight yards. It was his worst performance of the season, and as such his value has dropped a stunning $800 this week.

However, I’m here to tell you that he could bee one of the best plays of Week 10. Putting aside his statistical performance, Week 9 was the first time this season that Cohen has played more offensive snaps than Jordan Howard (28-26). This week, the Bears face a Lions defense that is allowing 26.4 FanDuel points per game to opposing runners (tied for eighth-most). There’s no reason why both Bears tailbacks can’t produce in this matchup. I expect a bounce-back performance from the electric second-year runner in this one.

Wide Receivers

Maurice Harris (WAS): $5,900 @TB (+1,200)
Harris had a career day against the Falcons in Week 9, securing 10 of 12 targets for 124 yards. It was the first time in his professional tenure that he’d ever surpassed three receptions or 50 yards. So should we look at his performance as a fluke and avoid him going forward?

Not necessarily. With Paul Richardson headed for injured reserve and Jamison Crowder sidelined (though he could be back in the lineup this week), there is an opportunity for Harris to stay hot. In a matchup against a Bucs defense that is allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game (38.4) to opposing wideouts, he could be productive, especially if Crowder isn’t back on the field. The larger issue here is the lack of passing volume. Quarterback Alex Smith has been held under 200 passing yards in three of his last four starts, and while that likely won’t happen against the Bucs, it makes it much more difficult to trust Washington’s passing offense, even in a premium matchup.

Josh Gordon (NE): $6,700 @ TEN (-$800)
I won’t beat around the bush here, folks. This is a fantastic week to get Flash Gordon in your lineups. Over the course of his first six games as a Patriot, the former Browns standout just keeps getting better and better, and his connection with Tom Brady is growing by leaps and bounds. On Sunday night, he produced his best game with his new team, seeing a season-high 10 targets and corralling five of them for 130 yards and a touchdown for an insane 26.0 yards per reception average.

It was Gordon’s second 100-yard day, his second touchdown, and his third time averaging 25 yards per reception or more as a Patriot. The dude flat-out still has it and has played over 80% of the team’s snaps and received 32 targets over his last four games. In short, he looks an awful lot like the same player who led the league with 1,646 receiving yards in only 14 games back in 2013. The Titans are allowing the eighth-most FanDuel points per game (33.1) to opposing wideouts, Gordon is playing with an all-time great quarterback, and he can be started for an incredible value. It’s hard to see much of a downside here.

Tight Ends

O.J. Howard (TB): $6,500 vs. WAS (+$500)
Howard is emerging as one of the game’s premium tight ends and considering his pedigree and draft position, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Despite only receiving 40 targets on the season (tied for 13th most among tight ends), he’s produced 472 receiving yards (fifth-most) and five touchdowns (tied for third-most). The sophomore has only been held beneath 50 receiving yards in one game and has found the end zone four times in his last four contests. The 16.9 yards per reception he’s averaging is virtually unprecedented for any player at his position (other than George Kittle, who’s averaging the same number).

Put simply, Howard has arrived. In Week 10, he draws a Washington defense that has been solid against opposing tight ends, but at this point, the second-year man is virtually match-up proof. The Bucs are one of the most voluminous passing offenses in the NFL, and Fitzpatrick is going to keep slinging it. This is no time to go away from Howard, even as his value continues to explode.

Jordan Reed (WAS): $5,200 @ TB) (-$400)
Reed’s had a frustrating season to this point. Despite staying relatively healthy over the first half of the season, he simply hasn’t been the fantasy producer we’ve seen in years past. In fact, the veteran hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1 and hasn’t cleared 50 receiving yards since Week 2. To this point, he and Alex Smith simply haven’t been able to establish a strong connection.

Now, reports are emerging that Reed has been struggling with neck and back injuries over the last week. For all of these reasons, Reed has seen his value dip by $400 this week. However, if there’s any cause for optimism, it’s the fact that he’s about to face a Bucs defense that has allowed 14.9 FanDuel points per contest to opposing tight ends (second-most). In fact, no team in the league has surrendered more receiving yards to the position. This could be Reed’s get-it-right week or it could be more of the same. Considering the lack of depth at the tight end position and his current depressed value, there could be a lot of people banking on the former in Week 10.

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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.

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