Another exciting weekend is in the books and we’re already talking about Week 11 of the 2018 NFL season. So let’s take a look at some players who saw the largest value fluctuations on FanDuel for the upcoming slate of games.
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Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota (TEN): $7,100 @ IND (+$400)
Finally healthy, Mariota is starting to look a lot like the breakout player we saw in 2016. Over his last two games, he’s thrown for 468 yards, four touchdowns, and a completion percentage of 69.8. The fourth-year pro has also added 53 rushing yards and touchdown on the ground, and has produced a quarterback rating of 119.9 or better in each contest. In a stunning 34-10 victory over the Patriots in Week 10, Mariota once again looked like his best self, and suddenly the Titans are 5-4 and firmly in playoff contention.
In Week 11, the former Heisman trophy winner has a chance to extend his hot streak as the Colts’ defense has allowed 19.4 FanDuel points per contest (13th-most) to opposing quarterbacks in 2018. With the Titans’ ground game on the upswing and Corey Davis starting to emerge as the talent we always knew he could be, it’s a pretty exciting time for this offense. If you’re looking for a dart-throw quarterback option this week, it might be time to hop on the Mariota bandwagon.
Andy Dalton (CIN): $7,100 @ BAL (-$800)
After a strong start to the season, Dalton and the Bengals have hit a rough patch. Indeed the franchise has dropped three of its last four contests, and after starting the year with four straight multi-touchdown games, Dalton has thrown for a single score in three of his last five. There are a lot of reasons for this skid, but over the last couple of weeks, there’s one main culprit. Put simply, having A.J. Green sidelined is destroying Dalton’s fantasy value.
Even in a premium match-up with a New Orleans defense that has surrendered the most FanDuel points per contest to opposing signal callers, Dalton struggled to get anything going in Week 10, throwing for only 153 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. I don’t expect things to get a lot better in Week 11, when the Bengals travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens defense that is allowing the eighth-fewest FanDuel points per game (17.0) to quarterbacks. In fact, the Ravens have only allowed 12 passing touchdowns on the season. Only Tennessee and Arizona have allowed fewer. With Green remaining sidelined and an incredibly difficult matchup on the docket, Dalton is better avoided in all formats.
Running Backs
David Johnson (ARI): $7,900 vs. OAK (+$1,000)
The David Johnson of old appears to be back, and there’s plenty of reason for optimism. After weeks of questionable usage, it appears that new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has unlocked the best method of deploying the former All-Pro runner, and it showed in Week 10. Indeed, DJ took 21 carries for a season-high 98 rushing yards and a touchdown, while corralling seven of nine targets for an additional 85 yards and a score. It was the first time since Week 1 that Johnson had exceeded 4.0 yards per carry and received more than five targets.
This week, Johnson faces a Raiders defense that is surrendering 26.6 FanDuel points per contest to opposing runners (tied fifth-most), and the timing couldn’t be much better. Yes, his value has seen a $1,000 correction, but he still has the potential to be a steal in a matchup like this. Johnson is arguably the most versatile back in the game when he’s at his peak, and he suddenly looks an awful lot like the man who was talking about accumulating 1,000 yards as both a runner and receiver in 2018. After a frustrating first couple months of the season, it looks like he’s back to being a rock-solid RB1.
Josh Adams (PHI): $4,500 @ NO (-$800)
The Eagles have had so many injuries at running back in 2018, it’s become difficult to even keep track. However, what is inarguable is that on Sunday night versus the Cowboys, Josh Adams was far and away the best runner on the roster. While Adams played fewer snaps than Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood, he took seven carries for 47 rushing yards and a robust 6.7 yards per carry average. Neither Clement or Smallwood eclipsed three yards per tote. Making matters even better, head coach Doug Pederson has stated that Adams will receive more carries going forward.
Sunday was a pass-heavy game script for the Eagles as Carson Wentz attempted 44 passes while the team totaled a mere 16 rushes (two of which went to Wentz), but there will be more favorable situations for Adams and company going forward. However, that might not happen this weekend. With an implied point total of 54.5, New Orleans and Philadelphia should be a shootout, and another pass-heavy game script could be on the way. New Orleans is attackable through the air, but stellar against the run, allowing only 17.0 FanDuel points per contest (fourth-fewest) to opposing runners. Adams could have some big days over the second half of the season, but the true breakout might be delayed for another week. However, at only $4,500, he could be a potential value play if he gets some goal-line work in this high-scoring affair.
Wide Receivers
Allen Robinson (CHI): $7,100 vs. MIN (+$800)
Welcome back A-Rob! After missing two games with a groin injury, Robinson torched the Detroit Lions for six catches, 133 receiving yards, and two touchdowns, while averaging 22.2 yards per reception. It was an incredible performance by the former Jaguar, and his first 100-yard day as a Bear. Looking fresh-legged and fully healthy, the fifth-year pro looks ready to be a vital part of a suddenly-thriving Chicago offense. As such, his value was appropriately adjusted by $800 on FanDuel this week.
Next on the docket is a much less appealing matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. In 2018, the Vikings have been stellar against wide receivers, only allowing 23.6 FanDuel points per contest (third-fewest) to the position, so expectations should be tempered slightly. Robinson is going to have some big games in the very near future, but facing such a difficult opponent while his value is reaching new heights isn’t exactly ideal for your lineup. The Vikings have only allowed six touchdown receptions to wideouts in 2018 (tied for second-fewest), so proceed with caution in this one.
Tyler Boyd (CIN): $7,000 @ BAL (-$800)
Boyd is one of the breakout wideouts of 2018, and that’s not even up for debate. Through nine games, the third-year pro has already set career highs in receiving yards (685) and touchdowns (5), and is just two catches short of equaling his single-season best total of 54. At only 23, the former second-rounder has a very bright NFL future ahead of him. However, at the moment, the Bengals’ offense is stuck in neutral.
As we discussed in the Dalton blurb earlier, the Ravens don’t exactly present a get-it-right matchup either. However, I still have a bit more confidence in Boyd than his quarterback this week. With A.J. Green sidelined, he’s far and away the team’s top pass-catcher, and even during last week’s implosion against New Orleans, he still totaled 65 receiving yards. Even with an $800 decline in value, he isn’t exactly a steal, but he should be locked into a high-volume role. Ultimately, I’d look for other options, but you could certainly do worse than Boyd this week even in a terrible matchup.
Tight Ends
Eric Ebron (IND): $6,000 vs. TEN (+$600)
Ebron’s improbable breakout season continued in Week 10, as the Colts’ tight end secured all three of his targets for 69 yards and two touchdowns, while also taking one carry for two yards and a rushing score. The former Detroit Lions has now found the end zone 10 times in nine games, and has been one of 2018’s most pleasant surprises. As such, his value has climbed by $600 this week.
However, a measure of caution is in order in Week 11, when Ebron matches up with a Titans defense that is allowing the fewest FanDuel points per game in the league to opposing tight ends (5.1). In fact, the Titans are one of only two teams that have not allowed a touchdowns reception to the position on the season. Furthermore, even during Ebron’s scintillating Week 10 performance, he still only played 38% of the team’s offensive snaps, fewer than both Jack Doyle and Mo Allie-Cox. Ebron has made his money with touchdowns this season, but he carries a certain degree of risk against such a formidable opponent with his currently minuscule snap share.
Evan Engram (NYG): $5,800 vs. TB (-$300)
Engram made his return to the Giants’ lineup on Monday night, catching four of five targets for 46 yards. While the sophomore tight end hasn’t been able to get back to the level of production he surprised us within 2017, there’s still reason for optimism over the second half. Yes, he’s firmly behind Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley (and possibly Sterling Shepard) in the passing game pecking order, but in the right match-up, his talent can overcome a lack of volume.
This weekend, he is set to enjoy such a matchup. As a rule of thumb, in 2018 if you have a date with the Bucs’ defense, you’re a legitimately startable option. Tampa has surrendered 14.0 FanDuel points per game (second-most) to opposing tight ends and the 701 receiving yards they’ve allowed to the position lead the league. The Giants will likely do plenty of throwing in this contest and Engram should have no trouble producing, even in such a crowded offense. Making him even more appealing is the fact that he’s seen a $300 value drop. If you’re going to consider streaming him, this is the week.
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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.
