Let’s take a look at some players who experienced some of the most drastic value changes as we get ready for Week 13 of the 2018 NFL season.
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Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (BUF): $6,800 @ MIA (+$500)
After missing four games with an elbow injury, Allen returned to the Bills’ lineup in Week 12 and led the team to a 24-21 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. While he didn’t light up the scoreboard, he threw for 160 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 99 more and another score. Most importantly, he didn’t commit a turnover (although he did fumble once) as the Bills secured their fourth win of the season.
This week, he has a decent matchup with a Dolphins defense that is allowing the 12th-most FanDuel points per game (18.0) to quarterbacks. Allen isn’t likely to post QB1 totals, although his value is buoyed by his rushing production, as the rookie has picked up 254 yards and four touchdowns on the ground in only seven games. Allen has shown enough that the Bills should be confident about their future, but in daily formats, he’s not a recommended play by any stretch.
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $8,300 vs. ARI (-$300)
Rodgers remains one of the very best quarterbacks in the league, but in 2018 he hasn’t been a particularly reliable fantasy option. The former MVP has been held under 200 passing yards in two of his last three starts and has four games this year with only one touchdown pass. This week, he takes on an Arizona defense that has allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points per contest to opposing quarterbacks (15.9) and has only permitted 15 touchdown passes (also second-fewest). Furthermore, Rodgers has attempted 30 or fewer passes in four of his last five starts as the Packers have leaned heavily on Aaron Jones and the ground game.
Having said that, it’s not as bleak as it seems. After all, Arizona just allowed Philip Rivers to set a single-game completion percentage record last week as the Chargers signal caller completed 28 of 29 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns. Rodgers’ numbers are bound to regress to the mean at some point. If you feel inclined to avoid him currently, it’s completely understandable but this isn’t necessarily the shy-away affair it appears to be on paper.
Running Backs
Gus Edwards (BAL): $6,400 @ ATL (+$1,100)
It’s official. Edwards is the main man the Ravens’ backfield. A week after receiving 17 carries for 115 yards and a touchdown, the rookie once again led the backfield with an additional 23 carries for 118 yards in Week 12. Edwards played 61% of the team’s running back snaps (although Alex Collins was inactive) and has looked to be an ideal running back complement for Lamar Jackson. Edwards is now averaging a nifty 5.4 yards per carry on the season and has sparked the team’s running game when it needed it most. It remains to be seen if Jackson will remain under center going forward, but as of press time, the Ravens haven’t made an announcement.
Still, in Week 13, Edwards draws a matchup with a Falcons defense that is surrendering the most FanDuel points per game to opposing runners (30.3), so he couldn’t find himself in a better situation. One interesting thing to look for: the Falcons have allowed 96 receptions to opposing tailbacks (most in the league), but Edwards has only secured one catch in his NFL career. If he’s ever going to make an impact as a receiver, this should be the week. At $6,400, he’s no longer a steal, but he still represents a pretty solid value considering his workload and opponent.
James White (NE): $6,800 vs. MIN (-$600)
White has been a fantasy beast for much of 2018, but he had a peculiar Week 12. While he produced a season-high 73 rushing yards against the Jets, he only secured one reception for five yards. It was the first time since Week 3 he has been held to fewer than five catches in a game, as his receiving prowess is much of why he’s been so productive this season. Sony Michel was clearly the featured runner in the Patriots’ rotation, but that wasn’t why White’s catch total dipped. I’d chalk it up to an anomaly and recognize that on most weeks, he will remain heavily involved in the passing game.
With that said, his off week combined with a tough matchup in Week 13 has caused his value to dip $600 this week. Indeed, White’s set to take on a Vikings defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per game to opposing runners (17.7) on the year. However, a closer look reveals that this is actually a tougher draw for Michel than White. While the Vikes have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to tailbacks (833), they’ve actually permitted the 12th-most receiving yards (542). At his current discount, I like White to bounce back this week, and return some value to your lineups. Just be aware of the fact that Rex Burkhead is eligible to return to the field this week.
Wide Receivers
Robert Foster (BUF): $5,500 @ MIA (+$700)
While we touched on Allen a little earlier, there’s another Buffalo Bill who warrants some attention, and that’s rookie receiver Robert Foster. On Sunday afternoon, Foster secured two of three targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. This comes on the heels of a three-catch, 105 yards day in Week 11. Foster is averaging 39.8 yards per reception over this two-week span and 32.7 yards per catch on the season. There’s little doubt he’s looked impressive and has earned a bigger role in the offense, and the value adjustment that goes with it.
Having said that, I would suggest it’s best to proceed with caution. Foster’s recent string of production has been incredible, but that’s difficult to sustain without volume. With 199 yards and a touchdown on only seven targets over the last two weeks, his efficiency is certain to decrease, not to mention the fact that opposing defenses will be paying him much more attention. Foster has a lot of upside and potential, but regression to the mean is likely in order, and with a $700 value increase, he’s is a gamble in Week 13.
Adam Thielen (MIN): $8,100 @ NE (-$500)
On Sunday night, Thielen produced his ninth 100-yard game of the 2018 NFL season. Among all NFL receivers, he ranks second in targets (124), first in receptions (93), second in receiving yards (1,138), and tied for fourth in touchdowns (8). To top it off, he’s the overall WR2 in FanDuel scoring. This week, he faces a Patriots defense that is rather middle-of-the-pack against opposing wide receivers. So naturally, he’s seen a $500 value decrease.
It doesn’t make a lot of sense, especially considering the fact that his tag team partner Stefon Diggs saw his value increase by $400. However, I would happily play either man this weekend. This has been arguably the best one-two punch at receiver in the entire league in 2018, and both men have found a way to produce for most of the season. If I can start the overall WR2 in a reasonable matchup at WR8 cost, I’m happily going to take that bargain. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Minnesota State alum produce his 10th 100-yard day in Foxborough.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook (OAK): $6,200 vs. KC (+$500)
It’s been a rough season for the Oakland Raiders, but Cook has definitely been one of the bright spots. Through 11 games, the veteran has racked up 47 receptions for 609 yards and five touchdowns, and is on pace to shatter all of his previous single-season highs. On Sunday, he produced one of the season’s most impressive touchdown grabs, and is the TE5 in FanDuel scoring for all of 2018. Furthermore, his impressive season is likely about to continue against a vulnerable Kansas City defense that has allowed 13.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends (third-most).
Cook has far and away been Derek Carr‘s most reliable target this season, and the Raiders should be playing catch-up all day. There is little doubt they will have to air it out and the 31-year-old should be heavily targeted. Having said that, Cook is the sixth-most expensive tight end on the slate, so you’re not getting any sort of discount. However, remember that Kansas City just allowed a combined nine receptions for 112 yards and two touchdowns to Rams tight ends Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee in Week 11. This is a very appealing draw.
George Kittle (SF): $6,800 @ SEA (-$700)
I feel like we talk about Kittle every other week in this column but the fact is, the sophomore tight end’s value is prone to seismic shifts on FanDuel, so the discussion is warranted. To be honest, I’m not sure why he’s seen a staggering $700 drop in Week 13. Even in a disappointing 27-9 loss where the 49ers offense couldn’t get anything going against a vulnerable Bucs defense, Kittle still saw 12 targets, securing six of them for 48 yards. It wasn’t a big day by any means, but it’s not like he disappeared from the game plan.
In Week 13, Kittle draws a Seahawks defense that has been excellent against tight ends, allowing only 7.7 FanDuel points per game to the position (tied for sixth-fewest) in 2018. But Kittle is basically a matchup-proof play at this point. By FanDuel’s scoring, he’s the TE4 on the season and his 83 targets rank third at the position. Yes, last week was a disappointment, but he still saw 12 targets, and has seen 22 looks over his last two contests. The Seahawks aren’t pushovers, but Kittle’s combination of ridiculous athleticism and incredible volume make me comfortable trotting him out there, even as the third-most expensive tight end on the slate.
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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.
