FanDuel NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 13

by Josh Shepardson | @BChad50 | Featured Writer
Nov 30, 2018

Baker Mayfield’s matchup with the Texans is much better than you might think

The following team has a bit of a point-chasing vibe with a number of the players coming off of big games, but all of the highlighted players have favorable matchups with plenty to like about using them. The quarterback of this squad is joined by his athletic tight end as a two-man stack, and if the duo is able to race out to the lead, it could prove to be a stronger correlation play than meets the eye with the defense/special teams (D/ST) that turns it into a three-man stack. The backfield features last week’s top performer as well as an explosive rookie. The receivers are a star-studded group headlined by a burner in a soft matchup and a pair of second-year receivers who are the clear-cut No. 1 wideouts on their respective squads. In all, the touted team below has a massive ceiling.

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Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (CLE): $7,500 at Texans
This is a better matchup for the hot rookie signal caller than it appears at first blush. The Texans are tied for the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per game allowed to quarterbacks this year, according to Pro-Football-Reference. However, Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Texans in the middle of the pack at 14th defending the pass. Why is there such a discrepancy? I’d hazard a guess that the quality of quarterbacking opposition plays a huge role in the gap.

Working from Week 1 through last week (Week 12), they’ve faced Tom Brady (without Julian Edelman or Josh Gordon), Blaine Gabbert, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott (pre-Amari Cooper), Josh Allen/Nathan Peterman, Blake Bortles/Cody Kessler, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, Alex Smith/Colt McCoy, and Marcus Mariota. That’s a Charmin-soft run of quarterbacks, and Luck carved them up to the tune of 464 yards passing and four touchdowns on 62 attempts. Factoring in the rag-tag collection of signal-callers they’ve faced, ranking tied for the sixth-fewest FanDuel points allowed to quarterbacks this year is completely unimpressive. Mayfield has hit his stride with Freddie Kitchens as the team’s offensive coordinator, and I expect him to stay hot in a matchup that’s better than meets the eye.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey (CAR): $8,800 at Buccaneers
CMC is coming off of an astonishing Week 12 effort in which he rushed for 125 yards and a touchdown and caught all 11 of his targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. He’s reached at least 110 yards from scrimmage in four straight games, caught at least five passes in each of those, and scored seven touchdowns during that four-game stretch. He kicked that four-game stretch off with a 17-79-2 line on the ground and 5-78-0 line through the air against his Week 13 opponent, the Bucs. He should rip them again this week.

Phillip Lindsay (DEN): $7,000 at Bengals
Lindsay’s having a monster rookie season. He’s bested 65 yards from scrimmage in all but one game this season and reached triple-digit yards from scrimmage five times — including three times in his last four games. Lindsay is also on a nifty touchdown binge with three in his last two games and at least one trip to pay dirt in four of his last five games. The game script and matchup are great for him to continue his heater this week. The Broncos are 4.5-point favorites, according to Pinnacle.

Also, Cincinnati is pathetic defending the run. FO ranks the Bengals 28th defending the run. They’ve yielded the second-most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year, too.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill (KC): $8,400 at Raiders
There might not be a bigger mismatch this week than Hill’s freakish speed against the sloth-like defense of the hapless Raiders. Oakland is tied for the ninth-most 20-plus yard passes and is tied for the fourth-most 40-plus yard receptions allowed to opponents, per NFL.com. The Chiefs have easily the highest team over/under total of the week at 35.5 points. Hill should have a huge hand in Kansas City creaming the Raiders this weekend, and the game being on the road is also worth noting for the speedster. The third-year pro has huge home/road splits, and he’s scored 22 of his 32 career touchdowns on the road. He’s also averaged just 49.2 yards per game receiving on 3.8 receptions per game at home compared to 88.0 receiving yards and 5.8 receptions per game on the road.

Kenny Golladay (DET): $7,300 vs. Rams
Aqib Talib’s likely return this week will help bolster a secondary that’s in need of help, but the Rams are tied for the seventh-most FanDuel points allowed per game to receivers. FO ranks the Rams just 25th defending No. 1 receivers, and Golladay is far and away the No. 1 receiver on the Lions in wake of Golden Tate being dealt to the Eagles and Marvin Jones Jr. hitting IR. Over his last three games, Golladay has per-game averages of 12 targets, 6.33 receptions, and 93.67 yards with two touchdown grabs. He’s also been much better at home (3.9 receptions and 67.3 yards receiving per game with six touchdowns in 10 games) in his career than on the road (3.3 receptions and 47.3 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns in 10 games). The Lions are 10-point underdogs, so there’s a distinct possibility the Lions will be forced to air it out early and often to keep up with the high-octane offense of the Rams.

Corey Davis (TEN): $5,900 vs. Jets
The Jets have served up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to receivers, and FO ranks them 15th defending No. 1 receivers. It’s a plus matchup for Davis. He’s in the midst of a breakout second season, and he’s eclipsed 125 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown in two of his last three games. Davis is also a target hog accounting for 28.4% of the Titans’ targets this year, per Pro-Football-Reference. If you add up Davis’ favorable matchup, recent success, and volume of work, you end up with a lot of bang for your buck at a bargain price.

Tight End

David Njoku (CLE): $5,500 at Texans
Njoku should be a wildly popular selection at tight end, but that’s for good reason. Houston’s yielded the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends, and FO ranks them 31st defending the position. The second-year tight end is coming off of a bounce-back effort in which he ripped the Bengals for a 5-63-1 line on five targets. Njoku has bested 50 yards receiving in two of three games with Kitchens as the OC, and he’s done so in six of Mayfield’s eight starts.

Flex

Chris Carson (SEA): $6,300 vs. 49ers
Seattle has a talented collection of backs, but make no bones about it, Carson is the lead back. He played 43% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 11 and 52% of them in Week 12. More importantly, he’s the team’s primary ball carrier while Mike Davis is the pass-catching option and Rashaad Penny is the change-of-pace back. Carson carried the ball 17 times for 83 yards and a score in Week 11, and he rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries with two receptions for eight yards last week. Seattle’s a 10-point favorite at home against the 49ers, so look for Carson to serve as the clock-killing back and surpass 15 carries again this week.

Defense/Special Teams

Cleveland Browns D/ST (CLE): $3,200 at Texans
The Browns are tied for the fourth-lowest salary at D/ST, but they’re a considerably better defense than the other super-low priced options. FO ranks Cleveland eighth overall in defense. The Browns rank in the middle of the pack in yards per play allowed, but they’re a turnover-forcing machine ranking second with 27. They’re not a great defense in terms of piling up sacks, ranking tied for 23rd with 25. However, they could look like an elite pass rushing team this week if the Texans fall behind to Cleveland’s suddenly hot offense.

During Houston’s eight-game winning streak, Deshaun Watson‘s had to pass more than 25 times only twice. Both of those occurrences started off the eight-game winning streak, and he’s attempted 25 or fewer passes in six straight. The lack of pass attempts hasn’t prevented him from taking sacks in bunches, though. He’s absorbed 11 sacks in his last three games. He has two games this year with seven sacks taken. Houston’s sack percentage allowed (10.0%) is the third highest, and FO ranks their offensive line the second worst in pass protection. If Cleveland’s defense is staked to a lead, the sky’s the limit for sack potential and fantasy point scoring upside.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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