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Fantasy Basketball Buy & Sell: Week 4

Fantasy Basketball Buy & Sell: Week 4

The NBA season is now in full swing. The regular season is over 13 percent complete after Wednesday’s games, and fans have seen plenty of unexpected performances.

The most surprising may be DeAndre Jordan. Through 11 games, Jordan continues to rebound (13.9 per game) and make his field goals (63.2 percent). His production in points and steals are right in line with his career averages as well. Jordan’s blocks are back after a down 2017-2018 season, but the big change lies in two of the remaining categories.

No, the Dallas Mavericks center did not start shooting three-pointers.

Jordan is assisting and making his free throws like never before, though. His career-high in assists per game is 1.5.  This season that number sits at 2.5. The Mavs are allowing Jordan to pass out of the high post in spurts, a task the Clippers rarely gave Jordan.

The foul shooting is the truly unexpected production, though. Jordan’s best season was last year when he shot 58.0 percent over 312 attempts. DeAndre made the move to Dallas this offseason, and suddenly he is the Mavericks best free throw shooter. No, they are not that bad as a team. Jordan has hit 37 out of his 44 free throws on the season or 84.1 percent.

It is still a small sample size, but it is not like the production is fading in recent games. Jordan has hit 11 of 12 over his last four games.

The question is still does the newfound production stick for the remainder of the season? The free throws likely regress, but it would not be shocking to see Jordan shoot north of 65 percent on the year given his start. The assists are here to stay as the Mavericks are using him more. Jordan is a buy in your league given his increased production.

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Buy

Here are two other players to buy given their unexpected production through three weeks of the season.

Eric Bledsoe (MIL)
Bledsoe’s playing time looks like it is down about three and half minutes per game from last season. Upon further inspection, it is only because the Bucks have blown out the Kings, Magic, Timberwolves and Pacers early this year. Bledsoe is still playing his 31 minutes per game in the other contests.

The decrease in minutes and an unsustainable drop in three-point percentage have seen Bledsoe’s numbers fall, and fantasy managers are panicking a little. The elite steals with 17 points, six assists, and four rebounds per game are on the way. His ADP was 44, but Bledsoe has finished inside the top-40 in his last three healthy seasons, so buy with confidence.

Jayson Tatum (BOS)
Tatum had an ADP of 40, but he is not performing up to that level through 10 games. The second-year forward is playing more minutes (32.7 per game) this season, but shooting a lowly 40.6 percent from the field.

Smart fantasy managers are looking at those numbers and believing there is no reason to sell, but this is still a case where a savvy player can buy low. Tatum is averaging 7.1 rebounds per game this season, and they are here to stay. He is playing the four next to Al Horford (not a strong rebounding center) for the vast majority of his minutes. Tatum is also taking more shot attempts, and his steal and block numbers should only increase in the added playing time.

Tatum is on pace to take a leap, and the panic of the too many mouths to feed on the Celtics should drive down his price a bit.

Sell

Here are two players who are performing unexpectedly in the opposite direction and fantasy managers should sell while they still have the chance.

Joel Embiid (PHI)
Wait, sell Embiid?!? He is having a monster start including playing over 34 minutes per game and being second in the NBA in points behind Steph Curry. The other players in your league are taking notice too. That is precisely why you sell him.

People are quick to believe the last thing they saw especially with a player as talented as Embiid who is still 24 and has monstrous upside. It won’t last. Embiid is taking nearly three more shot attempts per game this season, and Ben Simmons has seen almost the exact same shot attempt decrease. Over the full season, it evens out.

That all goes without saying, the most games Embiid has played since being drafted in 2014 is 63 including missing two full seasons with injury.

Fantasy managers should stick to their preseason predictions. If you had Karl-Anthony Towns and Kevin Durant ahead of Embiid this preseason, then you should make that swap today.

Kyle Lowry (TOR)
Lowry has started the season off on fire. He is shooting 50 percent from the field and leading the league with 11.5 assists per game. Both of those are unprecedented things from the 32-year-old.

Lowry is doing mostly what fans expected in every other category, but the increase places him firmly in the top 10 players so far. He had an ADP of 20 this season and managers should look to move the hot hand.

For his career, Lowry is a notoriously fast starter, and he fades down the stretch when fantasy players need him most. Now is the perfect opportunity to trade him for another second-round talent that will provide steady production over the course of the next five months.

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Tyler Watts is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @tylerpwatts.

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