Stephen Gostkowski owners face a difficult decision this week with the New England Patriots heading into a much-needed bye after losing to the Tennessee Titans 34-10 on Sunday. As the only kicker with 100% ownership in Yahoo standard leagues and with the second-most points on the season behind Wil Lutz, Gostkowski has been a solid fantasy asset this season.

With single-digit performances in eight of his 10 games, including 13 combined points in the Patriots’ last two contests against the Packers and the Titans, Gostkowski might get released in leagues with small benches as owners look to make a playoff push. In year’s past, it was a no-brainer decision to keep Gostkowski because he was head and shoulders above the other available kickers. But if you take out his one big 22-point game against the Chiefs Week 6, Gostkowski has been an average kicker in the majority of his performances.

Hopefully, this article will be beneficial for those Gostkowski owners, and the owners of players on bye like Jason Myers and Robbie Gould, as they navigate the final few weeks of the fantasy regular season.

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Week 10 strong performances from widely-available kickers

Jason Sanders (MIA) @ Green Bay: 1% ownership on Yahoo
It may come as a shock to many readers to learn that Jason Sanders, a rookie seventh-round pick from the University of New Mexico, ranks third in fantasy points scored at the kicker position over the past month, behind only Stephen Gostkowski and Jason Myers. Sanders has two games of at least 13 fantasy points during that span, including last week’s 14-point finish as the No. 2 kicker behind Will Lutz. The Dolphins are on a bye this week so owners should not look to add Sanders until the team returns to the field Week 12 at Indianapolis.

Stephen Hauschka (BUF) @ New York Jets: 4% ownership on Yahoo
Two of the top three kickers this week, Jason Sanders and Stephen Hauschka, share a combined ownership percentage of 5% in Yahoo leagues. Unlike Sanders, who has been a top-four play over the previous four games, Hauschka’s game is somewhat of an anomaly with the Bills and Matt Barkley upsetting the Jets 41-10 at Met Life Stadium. Hauschka is a very talented kicker and would be a top-12 play each week if he played on pretty much any team other than the Bills.

Ryan Succop (TEN) vs. New England:  12% ownership on Yahoo
Succop burned fantasy owners last week after scoring one measly point and missing a 28-yard attempt against the Cowboys. With his ownership plunging back down near single-digits, Succop bounded back with two field goals and four extra points in Tennessee’s surprising 34-10 win over the Patriots. It may be difficult to trust Succop once again this week, but he does have an enticing matchup on the road and in a dome against the Colts.

Week 10 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers

Stephen Gostkowski (NE) @ Tennessee: 1000% ownership on Yahoo
It seems odd how many times Gostkowski appears to be close to a dud performer, yet he is second on the season in total fantasy points scored. The main reason is the fact that his season-total is propped up by a 22-point game against the Chiefs and the Patriots are one of the last teams to go on a bye. Gostkowski is still going to be a top 10 kicker for the remainder of the season, but he does not carry the same clout he has in year’s past.

Matt Prater (DET) @ Chicago: 64% ownership on Yahoo
It is hard for any kicker to put up points when his offense is playing as poorly as the Lions over the past few weeks. Prater made his one attempt on the day — a 50-yard blast to give an excellent bonus point to most owners. But the Lions were chasing points most of the second half, and Prater only received one PAT attempt.

Kicker Rankings

 
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank second in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.

**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.

Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.

Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 7.

Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) @ Washington: 19% Ownership on Yahoo
After a streak of four double-digit games in five games from Weeks 2 through 7, Fairbairn cooled off with two average performances against Miami & Denver before Houston’s bye week. Look for Fairbairn to bounce back this week with the Texans taking on a Washington defense that excels at limiting red zone scores, while the Texans rank fifth-worst in red zone efficiency. If this game were at home in the dome and not on the road, I would rank Fairbairn just behind Zuerlein and Butker.

Giorgio Tavecchio (ATL) vs. Dallas: 19% ownership on Yahoo
Assuming that Matt Bryant is out once again with a leg injury, Tavecchio is an excellent play this week at home against Dallas. The Cowboys are a top-10 defense this season, including limiting teams in the red zone, while the Falcons rank sixth in the league in yards per game. To make things even better for Giorgio, Atlanta regressed last week in their red zone play calling and efficiency against the Browns and could once again stumble in that department against Dallas.

Prediction Review

Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.

Josh Lambo (JAC): @ Indianapolis
ECR Rank: 14 / My Rank: 9
Week 10 Finish: Kicker Tied #10

Lambo was one of the two players tied with the highest K Score on the week due to a strong matchup against the Colts. The volume proved to be there for Lambo with three field goal tries and three extra point attempts. But unfortunately, Lambo shanked a 50-yard attempt and also missed a PAT. Although he did finish as a top-10 play, it was a disappointing outcome for a player primed to finish as a top-five play this week.

Robbie Gould (SF): vs. NY Giants
ECR Rank: 12 / My Rank: 7
Week 10 Finish: Kicker #3

After failing to hit on both of my K Score kickers for the first time this season, I bounced back with two top-10 picks, including a top-three play this week by Robbie Gould against the Giants. Gould took advantage of a New York team that ranks third in red zone defense to make three field goals and two PATs for 13 fantasy points.

Waiver Wired

Top Add

Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) @ Washington:  19% ownership on Yahoo
Not only is Fairbairn an excellent play this week against Washington, but he is also the seventh-ranked player overall in points scored on the year and should be a top-five kicker the remainder of the season. Fairbairn is the top add for Gostkowski owners and other players dealing with a bye this week.

Others to Consider

• Giorgio Tavecchio (ATL) @ Washington:  19% ownership on Yahoo
• Brandon McManus (DEN) @ LA Chargers: 513% ownership on Yahoo

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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.