A trade deadline edition of the trade chart? What could be better?
Over the last few seasons, the NFL trade deadline has really become a thing. Executives no longer seem concerned with messing with team chemistry or figuring out how to get players involved in their team’s offense with only a week or two to learn a new system. For the most part, teams are accurately assessing the state of their franchises and acting accordingly. Except for the Packers and the Lions. In which case:
The trade deadline had a significant impact on the trade chart, so we’ll talk about each one of the major moves. And, as always, a reminder that the chart is based on 12-team, 0.5 PPR leagues. You’ll need to adjust accordingly if you play in a different format.
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Quarterbacks
Player | Current Value | Previous Value | +/- |
Patrick Mahomes | 24 | 23 | +1 |
Cam Newton | 21 | 21 | – |
Aaron Rodgers | 21 | 21 | – |
Drew Brees | 20 | 21 | -1 |
Matt Ryan | 15 | 15 | – |
Andrew Luck | 15 | 15 | – |
Tom Brady | 15 | 18 | -3 |
Jared Goff | 11 | 11 | – |
Russell Wilson | 11 | 9 | +2 |
Philip Rivers | 11 | 11 | – |
Deshaun Watson | 11 | 7 | +4 |
Carson Wentz | 11 | 9 | +2 |
Kirk Cousins | 11 | 11 | – |
Mitch Trubisky | 9 | N/A | +9 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 9 | 9 | – |
Quarterback values were not significantly affected by the trade deadline. Demaryius Thomas helps to offset Deshaun Watson’s loss of Will Fuller, while Carson Wentz adds another reliable target in Golden Tate. But, as usual, we pretty much are where we are with quarterbacks. You can stream your way to a championship this season, without question.
Running Backs
The biggest trade deadline riser for running backs is Aaron Jones, who now has one fewer competitor for carries after the Packers dumped . . . er, traded Ty Montgomery to the Ravens for a 2020 seventh-round pick. After his performance against the Rams, Jones was moving up anyway, as Mike McCarthy finally seemed to be realizing what every fantasy owner in the world has known for weeks — Jones is the best running back on his roster. Still, Montgomery’s departure should mean a continued increase in Jones’s snap count, which had only passed 40% for the first time in his career on Sunday. Jamaal Williams also sees a slight bump, but for the sake of everything decent, this should be Jones’s backfield going forward.
Briefly, I’ll note that I do not believe Montgomery’s addition to the Ravens has any significant impact on Alex Collins. I’d still expect him to be the guy and please check out his schedule from Weeks 11 – 15. It is tasty. To the extent you were relying on Javorius Allen – first, I’m sorry you’re in last place, but second, he will likely cede some passing-down work.
Finally, the Eagles’ decision not to add a running back enhances the value of both Wendell Smallwood and Josh Adams (Corey Clement still loses value from last week considering he was essentially phased out of the offense). Knowing Doug Pederson, all three backs will factor in, and although I am bullish on Adams’s chances of eventually having the most value, for now, Smallwood remains the back to own in Philadelphia. But the fact that the Eagles are content to roll with the trio positively affects their value, of course.
One final minor note on running backs: Adrian Peterson’s value continues to climb because of his outstanding performance. But he sees a little extra spike in value with the Redskins defense getting even stronger with the addition of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. That should lead to continued close games/positive game-scripts for Peterson, which is exactly what he needs to continue his upward trend. Chris Thompson’s mounting injuries don’t hurt Peterson’s value, either.
Wide Receivers
As discussed, we saw two prominent wide receivers, Tate and Thomas, dealt at the deadline. There are some pretty big fantasy ramifications for each of the four teams involved in those deals, so let’s discuss.
The most obvious impact is that it’s Courtland Sutton time in Denver. We’ve been hearing for weeks that the Broncos want to get Sutton more involved, and he’s generally had more of a fantasy impact in recent weeks in any event. With Thomas out of the way, you can expect Sutton’s target share to jump (he had seen just 11 targets in his last three games). Considering he has a 19.1 yards-per-catch average, he should do some major fantasy damage for the remainder of the season. He immediately jumps into borderline WR2 status in my opinion, with room to grow. As for Emmanuel Sanders, he’ll likely see a small target bump, but it does not move the needle much.
As for Thomas, well, I’m generally not excited about wide receivers moving to a new team mid-season. Not only do they need to immediately get up to speed on the playbook, they need to find a way to quickly establish a rapport with their new quarterback. Thomas’s situation is roughly as good as you could hope for in a trade. With Will Fuller’s season-ending knee injury, there are plenty of targets available, and the team has a fine offensive scheme and a decent quarterback. Overall, Thomas’s value drops slightly, as the offsetting factors make it largely a neutral, but still slightly negative, move. As for the other Texans receivers, DeAndre Hopkins sees no change, of course, because the only thing that can change Hopkins’s value is Brock Osweiler at quarterback. Keke Coutee, however, loses most of the value he would have gained with the Fuller injury (Note: Coutee’s value is actually up from last week because his injury had eliminated any previous trade value. He would have moved up significantly absent the Thomas trade).
As for Tate, it’s just hard to see this as good news. If you want to be optimistic, he goes to an outstanding offensive scheme with a quarterback who throws quite a bit more than his former one did. That is the end of the optimism. On the other side of the coin, Tate owners now have to deal with an unexpected second bye week, and it’s nearly impossible to see him approaching the almost 10 targets per game he was seeing from Matthew Stafford. All the negatives about changing teams that I mentioned with Thomas apply to Tate, too, so it’s concerning. I’d consider him a mid-WR3 in trade value in 0.5 PPR formats. As for other Eagles receivers, they all take a minor hit, as Tate should siphon off some targets from everyone.
On the Lions side of the ball, however, it’s good news for the receivers. T.J. Jones and Brandon Powell are not going to replicate Tate’s production, so there should be more targets for both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. It’s really as simple as that. Although the Lions offense could, theoretically, support three receivers, it’s a whole lot easier to support two.
Tight Ends
Player | Current Value | Previous Value | +/- |
Travis Kelce | 35 | 35 | – |
Zach Ertz | 31 | 35 | -4 |
Rob Gronkowski | 17 | 25 | -8 |
Jared Cook | 8 | 7 | +1 |
George Kittle | 8 | 8 | – |
O.J. Howard | 7 | 5 | +2 |
Trey Burton | 7 | 7 | – |
Greg Olsen | 7 | 3 | +4 |
David Njoku | 5 | 7 | -2 |
Jimmy Graham | 5 | 7 | -2 |
Jack Doyle | 5 | N/A | +5 |
Eric Ebron | 5 | 7 | -2 |
Austin Hooper | 3 | N/A | +3 |
Jordan Reed | 3 | 3 | – |
Evan Engram | 3 | 4 | -1 |
Although it feels like you should buy low on Rob Gronkowski, I just can’t see how owners should value him anywhere close to the big two. The Patriots don’t need him to earn a bye, and if his back continues to be an issue, there would be no reason to push him. I’d be wary about dealing for him.
Other than that, Zach Ertz loses just a tiny bit of value with the addition of Tate, O.J. Howard and Greg Olsen looked healthy, and Jack Doyle returned. The tight end position is rarely exciting.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.