Welcome to another edition of Players to Fade on FanDuel. Hopefully, everyone had a Happy Turkey Day and enjoyed the three-game Thanksgiving slate. After scoring some Black Friday deals, another 10-game main slate awaits us. DFS is harder than ever these days, and we need every edge we can get. It’s necessary to not only narrow it down to the best plays but also be aware of who to avoid on a week-to-week basis. I’ll do my best to identify some players that could end up being landmines that sink our FanDuel lineups. Whether overpriced or in a bad spot, here’s a list of players I’m avoiding in Week 12. Let’s get after it!
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Quarterback
Tom Brady (NE): $8,200 @ NYJ
I think this game stays right around it’s projected point total, but I also have a feeling the Patriots score a lot of thier points on the ground in this one. With Sony Michel likely to play, the Pats should run more than they have in his absence as that’s a better way to beat the Jets on the road. New York ranks sixth in run defense DVOA and eighth in yards per carry allowed this season. The way to exploit this unit is through the slot where they have struggled mightily, allowing 17.3 fantasy points per game to slot WRs. That would put Julian Edelman in play and that’s about it. I know Brady is arguably the GOAT, but he’s going to have his passing options limited in this game and the Patriots have historically run the ball a lot when they get into the red zone and near the goal line. This year, they’re still a top-three offense in running plays down close (even in games without Michel and Burkhead) so the likelihood that Brady chucks three touchdowns is pretty low in this one.
Running Back
Alex Collins (BAL): $6,200 vs. OAK
This suggestion has nothing to do with the talent or the matchup. If you played Collins last week, you were sorely disappointed with the emergence of Gus “The Bus” Edwards and the ridiculous two dozen carries (sans kneel-downs) that Lamar Jackson had against the Bengals. Don’t forget the Ravens traded for Ty Montgomery just before the trade deadline. After the game in his post-game press conference, Coach John Harbaugh hinted at a four-back committee. The only thing worse than a three-headed committee is a four-headed version. The usage is going to be largely unpredictable going forward, and I wouldn’t recommend anyone pay this much for a running with an uncertain role in this Baltimore offense. When Joe Flacco comes back, the Ravens may revert to a more defined distribution of carries. But until that actually happens, avoid this situation entirely. Taking a “wait-and-see” approach would be smart until something tangible plays out here.
Leonard Fournette (JAC): $8,100 @ BUF
Unlike Collins, Fournette has been getting an absolutely massive workload since his return. However, Buffalo is vastly underrated when it comes to it’s ability to limit opposing offenses. The Bills are top 10 in both run defense DVOA and yards per carry allowed this season and this game is projected to be the lowest-scoring affair on the slate. That isn’t surprising when we remember January’s Wild Card game in which these teams played to a 10-3 defensive slugfest with the Jags winning at home. The rematch is in Buffalo and Leonard Fournette hates running in the cold. He was held to just 57 yards on 21 totes (2.7 YPC) that game, so I’d set a similar expectation and adding in a rushing TD still doesn’t come close to paying off his hefty salary. There are other RBs on this slate that are a much better value so I won’t be playing him. Definitely, don’t use him in cash games as he’s more of a tournament play that you could pair with the Jags D if you’re feeling lucky.
Wide Receiver
Alshon Jeffery (PHI): $7,200 vs. NYG
Jeffery is surrounded by three slot receivers in Philly and there seems to be too many mouths to feed both at the WR and RB spots for the Eagles. Last week, I mentioned that we shouldn’t trust any of the Eagles backs as we simply don’t know who will see the work on a weekly basis. I’m starting to think that same thing is true of the WR corps. With Zach Ertz eating up the majority of targets, Jeffery has only seen more than five targets once in the past three games and hasn’t scored more than seven FanDuel points in those contests. There will always be the chance that he could get in the box as he’s shown a natural affinity for the end zone in his career. But even if he scores in addition to getting his usual four grabs for 40 yards, he’s still not likely to pay off a salary above $7k. We should only be thinking about him as a touchdown-dependent tournament play in a game stack scenario.
Josh Gordon (NE): $6,800 @ NYJ
Again, I don’t like the Patriots pass game this week. Even being projected for the second-highest point total of the week, I think most of the touchdowns come through the running game. If there are receiving touchdowns, I like the chances that those go to Julian Edelman and James White due to the reasons I mentioned above. As bad as they are at defending slot receivers, the Jets have been just as good at limiting perimeter pass catchers. Therefore, I think Gordon’s high target totals of the last two weeks will drop back down closer to what we saw in October. There is always the chance that the Pats go off any week, of course making the explosive Gordon a high-ceiling option in GPPs. But I just don’t see it in this game and therefore, I’ll be avoiding him across the board but especially in cash games.
Sterling Shepard (NYG): $6,000 @ PHI
I love Odell Beckham Jr. this week, but I’m not able to trust Shepard as anything more than a potential tournament play in a game stack. With the small amounts of offensive production from these teams in recent weeks, I’m not excited about stacking this game one bit. The only play I like outside of OBJ are Saquon Barkley. Everyone else is just in a big pile of guys that I’m ignoring in Week 12. Shepard is no exception with his minuscule target share the past two weeks. If I told you he’s caught 80% of his targets, you’d be excited. But when I tell you he’s had a total of five looks in the last two games, he quickly becomes unappealing. He’s come up short so many times that I can’t invest $6k in such an inconsistent cog of the Giants offense. Even though they throw more than any other team in the league and the matchup is good, I’m staying away from Shepard completely.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (NE): $6,900 @ NYJ
I know, I’m really hating on the Patriots this week. But I’ve made a lot of cases as to why I think fading Brady and company is the right move. Add Gronk to that mix for Week 12. He’s still priced as the third-highest option in the TE player pool and it’s hard to ignore him at his price. But now coming back to play after sitting out with a balky back makes it that much easier for me to fade him. He’s still elite when he’s healthy, but he’s been far from it, looking beat up and slow all year. The problem with Gronk is that he needs to catch multiple touchdowns to pay off this price tag. We simply can’t be comfortable paying this much for a guy who has three catches in each of his last two games. He always seems to be somewhat popular in tourneys, so I’ll steer completely clear and let others make that mistake. If you feel like paying up at Tight End to be contrarian, go a little higher for George Kittle and Zach Ertz as they are the plays for that strategy, not Gronk.
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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.
