It’s one thing for health to revise a team’s backfield duties. Yet a coach’s game plan will occasionally make a week’s research moot and fill all fantasy managers with nihilistic dread.

Injuries are impossible to predict, and examining the aftermath isn’t exactly easy either. One early exit ruined a tailor-made matchup. Another running back instantly returned to prominence despite a rookie shining in his absence. Another rusher, however, came back as a clear second fiddle.

These outcomes were at least all in the reasonable realm of possibilities. An undrafted rookie as low as fourth on the depth chart suddenly getting most of the carries? That caused casual and expert gamers alike to admit they may not know much about anything. Let’s start by trying to make sense of that unexpected snap distribution.

View Snap Count leaders across the NFL

Baltimore Ravens

 
Lamar Jackson’s first NFL start promised more rushing opportunities-and larger running lanes in fear of the former Heisman Trophy winner’s legs-against the abysmal Bengals. This thought prevailed as the Ravens kept a resounding 54 of their 75 plays on the ground in a 24-21 triumph. Yet that volume was supposed to funnel to Alex Collins, who compiled just seven carries. After playing in a season-high 50.8 percent of Baltimore’s snaps before the Week 10 bye, he returned to a season-low 21.5 percentage. Along with his 27 own rushes, Jackson handed the ball to Gus Edwards 17 times. The undrafted rookie entered Week 11 wielding 16 total touches for 71 yards on the season. The casual fantasy player understandably wouldn’t have even noticed if he was inactive behind Collins, Javorius Allen, and the newly acquired Ty Montgomery, who did not tally a touch in his team debut. It’s hard to argue with John Harbaugh’s unexpected decision. Edwards thoroughly outperformed a pedestrian Collins, who at least salvaged some value with an early touchdown. Perhaps Harbaugh simply decided Edwards fit better alongside Jackson. If that’s the case, the newcomer could be in store for another big week. While Joe Flacco has a chance of returning, it doesn’t seem like the probable outcome. After shoving the Bengals to last in rushing yards allowed, they will host the second-worst Raiders as a heavy home favorite. If the roles were clearer, Baltimore’s starter would be an easy RB2, if not a borderline RB1. Everyone might have to instead treat Edwards and Collins as high-risk, high-reward flex options. Managers can, however, drop Montgomery and Allen with certainty.

Denver Broncos

 
Royce Freeman is back, but Denver’s backfield still belongs to Phillip Lindsay. After missing three weeks (two games) with an ankle injury, Freeman returned to log a season-low 23.2 snap percentage. Lindsay, meanwhile, recorded a 57.1 percentage right in line with those incurred (56.2 and 57.6) when his teammate was sidelined. Devontae Booker instead sacrificed his playing time, tallying his second-lowest percentage (19.6) of 2018. This arrangement is best for both the Broncos and fantasy managers. Averaging 5.5 yards per carry with Football Outsiders’s second-best DVOA behind Todd Gurley through Week 10, Lindsay has clearly earned star billing. Booker has merely drained each rookie’s value by siphoning snaps and targets in losing situations. While it’s possible he regains that role, the Broncos could flirt with .500 or better by facing the Bengals, 49ers, Browns, and Raiders from Weeks 13-16. Lindsay will thus make a strong RB2 during the fantasy playoffs. Just beware of Freeman-who scored his fifth touchdown in eight games-continuing to vulture Lindsay after drawing five of his eight touches inside the red zone. That keeps him relevant as a flex flier during those advantageous spots.

Green Bay Packers

 
With all due respect to Becky Lynch, Aaron Jones is now also The Man. His Week 11 raw touches and snap count stayed right in line with recent results. Yet that heavy workload came despite Green Bay running just 49 offensive plays. Jones saw the field in all but five of them (90%), and he handled four red-zone touches for the second straight week. Also, don’t underestimate the significance of his ascending pass-catching involvement. His targets (six) rose for the fourth straight game. Those looks resulted in a season-high five catches for 63 yards and his first career receiving touchdown. He had previously totaled 78 receiving yards all season. If this extra involvement sticks-and it should with Montgomery, Geronimo Allison, and possibly Jimmy Graham out of the picture-Jones has all the makings of a legitimate RB1. Helping his case, the Packers will close out 2018 with four of six games against bottom-13 rushing defenses.

Oakland Raiders

 
This was the perfect game for Doug Martin to explode. Forget winning, the Raiders hadn’t lost by fewer than 14 points since losing Marshawn Lynch to a groin injury. That changed when they picked up their second win of the season against the also-anemic Cardinals, who entered Week 11 allowing an NFL-high 25.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Before he could capitalize on the golden matchup, Martin left early with an ankle injury. That left Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington to assume a larger role in Oakland’s ground game. Richard, who received 11 carries over the last seven games combined, matched that mark while also catching three of four targets. Washington had six touches all year before handling as many red-zone rushes in Week 11. None of them found the end zone, so no Oakland running back has scored a touchdown since Lynch in Week 3. On Monday, Gruden said he believes Martin will be fine, but he nevertheless would like to give Washington more opportunities toward the finish line. Likely huge underdogs in each of the next three games (at BAL, vs. KC, and vs, PIT), Martin especially can’t be trusted in sharing limited carries. While unlikely to snap his touchdown drought in Oakland’s pedantic offense, Richard is nevertheless the top play in PPR or half-PPR formats. Yet none of them are particularly alluring choices against Baltimore’s third-ranked rushing defense.

Seattle Seahawks

 
Three’s a crowd in Seattle, where the Seahawks had all hands on deck in Thursday night’s win over the Packers. Chris Carson, who missed Week 10 after re-injuring his hip in the previous game, led the trio with 17 touches. While a 42.9 snap percentage represents a notable drop from Week 7’s 66.7 percentage, he found pay dirt on one of two carries inside the 10. Considering Seattle runs the ball on an NFL-high 53.7 percent of its plays, simply leading a committee may be enough to preserve Carson’s stock as a somewhat depreciated RB2. Yet there are likely no more 25-touch games ahead. Fresh off a breakout performance, Rashaad Penny again looked sharp in limited opportunities. He suffered an ankle injury, but should be fine after returning later in the game. While Mike Davis handled the fewest touches (six), he out-snapped Penny as the only Seattle back to reel in a catch. Carson’s spotty health record makes both alternatives worthy of a roster spot in most leagues. They are both bench depth given the limited volume, but Penny has a greater chance of snagging a bigger role down the road. The Seahawks have two games against the 49ers before closing the season versus two of the NFL’s worst rushing defenses (Chiefs and Cardinals).

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